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Türkiye kaya gibi geliyor Trakya ve Güney Doğu Anadolu’da çok ciddi kaya gazı rezervlerimiz çıktı. Sadece bu iki bölge hesaba katıldığında Türkiye’nin 14 yıllık tüm tüketimini karşılayacak bir miktar var. Daha araştırılmayan birçok bölge var. Kaya gazı sayesinde Türkiye bir anda ihracatçı durumuna geçecektir takvim.com.tr Kaynak GAZETE Giriş Tarihi : 07 Ağustos 2017
T ürkiye'nin ilk Rüzgar Enerjisi Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynak Alanları (YEKA) ihalesini kilovatsaat başı en düşük teklifi 3,48 dolar/cent ile Siemens - Türkerler- Kalyon Enerji konsorsiyumu aldı. Türkiye bu ihale ile bu alanda dünyanın en uygun fiyatla yapılan ihalesi olarak belirlendi. Proje çevreye uyumlu, temiz enerji üretmekle kalmayacak, rüzgar güllerini de üretip ihraç edebilecek. Türkiye ile Almanya arasında yaşanmakta olan siyasi gerilimlere rağmen ihaleyi bir Alman firmasının kazanması ise dünyada ilgiyle ile karşılandı. Enerji ve Tabi Kaynaklar Bakanı Berat Albayrak'ın da dediği gibi bu ihale Türk- Alman ilişkilerine olumlu katkı sağlayacak bir adım olarak görüldü. Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Enerji politikaları Araştırma Merkezi Direktörü Prof. Dr. Gürkan Kumbaroğlu, son ihaleyi ve Türkiye'de olduğu tespit edilen kaya gazı ile ilgili bilgileri TAKVİM'e değerlendirdi.
Bu hafta gerçekleşen Yenilenebilir Enerji anlaşmasını nasıl değerlendiriyorsunuz? Bu anlaşma ile sadece elektrik üretimi değil aynı zamanda fabrikası ile birlikte gelmesi çok önemli. Yani Rüzgar Tribünü üretim tesisi yılda 400 Megavatt gücünde kuruluyor. Bu proje iki yıl içinde de tamamlanacak. Bu fabrikanın 2 buçuk yıllık üretimi maliyeti tamalayacak.
Fiyatlandırması nasıl? 3.48 dolar/cent, dünyada şu ana kadar en uygun fiyatlandırma. Kıyaslarsak ABD Enerji İdaresinin 2022 yılında devreye girecek rüzgar tribünlerinin üretim maliyetleri ortalamasını 4.4 dolar/cent olarak belirlemiş durumda. Bizim yaptığımız ihale Amerika'daki aynı yılda devreye girecek enerjiden çok daha ucuza mal ediliyor.
Yapılan bu anlaşma Türkiye Almanya ve AB ilişkilerini nasıl şekillendirir? Özellikle Almanya ile aramızda yaşanmakta olan siyasi sorunlardan sonra bir açılımı ortaya çıkaracaktır. Türkiye ihracatının birinci sırasında Almanya, ithalatta da Çin'den sonra ikinci sırada yine Almanya var. Dolayısıyla bunun son günlerde bozulma tehlikesi vardı şimdi tam tersine iyileşmek zorunda. Almanya Dışişleri'nin biz Türkiye'ye yatırım yapılmasına olumlu bakmıyoruz dedikten sonra bir KOBİ Türkiye'ye yatırım yapmaya kalkınca iki kez düşünürsünüz. Ama öte yanda kos kocaman Siemans bu işe girmişse sizin için örnek teşkil edecektir.
Türkiye elektrik tüketiminin ne kadarını rüzgar ve güneşten karşılayabilir? Avrupa Birliği'nin 2030 yılı hedefinde Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynak Alanları (YEKA) en az yüzde 27, 2050 yılı hedefi de yüzde 55 oranında olması planlanıyor. Türkiye'de de aynı şekilde giderek artan oranda yenilenebilir enerji kullanılacaktır. Türkiye çok iyi planlayabilirse rüzgar ve güneş enerjisinden elektrik ihtiyacının yüzde 30 ile 50 arasındaki bir kısmını karşılayabilir.
Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Enerji politikaları Araştırma Merkezi Direktörü Prof. Dr. Gürkan Kumbaroğlu, arkadaşımız Ali Değermenci'ye konuştu. ALTERNATİFİMİZ YOK Türkiye'nin coğrafi konumu göz önüne alınınca enerji açısından fotoğrafı nasıl gözükür? Bugün dünyada enerji rotalarının yeniden çizilmekte olduğu bir dönemdeyiz. Ama Türkiye öyle bir konumdaki alternatifi yok. Türkiye gibi bir başka ülke de yok. Enerji ihracatını Rusya, Kafkaslar, Doğu Akdeniz, Irak ve İran yapmaktalar. Türkiye tüm bu ülkelerin ortasında ve alternatifi olmayan bir güzergah üzerinde bulunuyor. Avrupa'ya alternatif enerji üreticilerinin kaynaklarını ulaştırmasında en ekonomik güzergah Türkiye üzerinden geçiyor. Bu projeler onun için gelişiyor. Bu projeler kazan-kazan-kazan formülü ile ilerliyor. Hem üretici, hem Türkiye ve hem de tüketiciler için kazançlı projeler.
Enerji hatları Türkiye'de mi buluşacak? Şu an inşaatı devam eden TANAP ve TÜRK Akımı Projesi var. Bu projeler Türk- Yunan sınırında birleşiyor. İki farklı yerden Avrupa'ya gaz gelecek. Böyle başka bir ülke yok. Buna ek olarak bir de Doğu Akdeniz gazı eklenince boru hattı sayısı 3 olacak. Irak ve İran'da buna eklenirse ki doğal olan bu 4, 5. hat oluşmuş olacak. Farklı üreticilerden gelen gazlar Türkiye üzerinden Avrupa'ya geçmesine neden olacak. Bu rekabetçi bir ortamın doğmasına neden olacaktır ki, zaten bu isteniyordu. Bütün boru hatlarının birleştiği nokta Türkiye oluyor. Türkiye onun için enerji HUB'ı olması en şanslı ülkelerden birisi olacaktır.
AVUSTURYA BİZİ ÇEKEMEDİ Son dönemde Almanya ve Avusturya'nın enerji HUB'u olma çalışması Türkiye ile iplerin gerilmesinde bir başka neden olabilir mi? Enerji, bölgemizde savaşlara neden oluyor. Türk Akımı projesinden önce Güney Akım Projesi vardı iptal edildi.
Avusturya (Baumgarten gaz HUB'ı) böyle bir HUB planı vardı ama suya düştü.
Almanya'nın enerji HUB'ı olma girişiminin karşısında Türkiye'nin doğal olarak HUB'a çok yakın olması Almanya ile Türkiye arasında gerilime neden olmaktadır. Bugün yaşanmakta olan siyasi gerilimlerin de bir nedeni bu olabilir.
Türkiye'nin HUB olmasını Avrupa Birliği desteklemek zorunda. Çünkü AB rekabetçi bir piyasa oluşturmak istiyor.
ENERJİ BORSASI BAŞKENTİ Türkiye'nin HUB olunca kazancı ne? Birçok satıcının, birçok alıcı ile buluştuğu piyasa Türkiye'de oluşmuş olacak. Bir nevi Enerji Borsası'nın Türkiye'de oluşmasına neden olacak.
Ayrıca fiyatların oluştuğu bir yer oluyor.
Türkiye fazla değil bir kaç yıl içinde bölgenin enerji HUB'u olur. Yani bütün boru hatlarının buluştuğu yer olur. HUB olması durumunda önemli bir kilit taşı durumuna gelmiş olacak. Avrupa'nın enerji arz güvenliğinde Türkiye çok önemli bir konuma geliyor.
Rusya, Kafkaslar, Adriyatik, İsrail, İran ve Irak boru hatları Türkiye'de buluşunca ne olur? Türkiye böyle bir durumda hem siyasi hem de ekonomik olarak çok önemli bir konuma gelecektir. Bölgede ekonomik refah sağlayacak aynı zamanda da güvelik supabına dönecektir. Türkiye ile birlikte olan ülkeler Türkiye'nin istikrarsızlığını istemeyecektir.
KAYA GAZI UÇURUR Yabancıların Güney Doğu ile ilgilenmesinin nedeni nedir? Bu bölgemiz enerjiler için çok önemli bir geçiş güzergahı.
Ama bunlardan daha da önemlisi kaya gazı ve petrolü rezervleri var. Kaya gazı 10-20 yıl önce bir anlam ifade etmiyordu. Fakat bugün teknoloji gelişti. Bugün Amerika'yı ihracatçı yapan kaya gazı petrolü oldu.
Ne kadar bir potansiyel var? Türkiye'de kaya gazının olduğunu ABD şirketlerinin araştırması ile öğrendik. Çok detaylı bir çalışma. Sadece iki bölge için yapıldı Trakya ve Güney Doğu Anadolu. Türkiye, rüzgar enerjisinde nasıl işbirliği yapıldıysa bu konuda da işbirliği yapılabilir.
Üretim ne kadar zamanda olabilir? Çok hızlı şekilde 3-4 yıl içinde sonuçlanabilir. Sadece bu iki bölge hesaba katıldığında Türkiye'nin 14 yıllık tüm tüketimini karşılayacak kadar fazla olduğu biliniyor. Bu çok ciddi bir durumdur. Türkiye bir anda ihracatçı durumuna geçebilecektir. Bu olay bütün enerji stratejisini baştan sona değiştirebilecek bir durumdur.
Daha araştırılmayan bölgeler var mesela Tuz Gölü'nün altının önemli rezerv olma ihtimali vardır.
SIRADA İSRAİL VE İRAN VAR İran'ın enerjisinin Batı pazarına taşınması kısa vadede mümkün mü? İran'da çok büyük rezervler var. Fransa ile çok büyük bir anlaşma imzalandı. Almanlar İran ile çok yakın çalışmaktalar. İran'da çok büyük pasta var. İran'ın enerjisinin Avrupa piyasalarına geçmesi ancak Türkiye üzerinden olabilecektir. Türkiye bundan sonra İran ve İsrail ile iki büyük proje yapacaktır. Şimdilik İsrail daha önce yapılacak gibi gözüküyor.
KATAR YENİDEN GÜNDEME GELECEK Katar Doğal Gaz Boru Hattı Projesi 2009 yılında gündeme gelmişti bugün gündemde yok mu? Katar'ın yaşadığı son sorun nedeniyle ciddi yakınlaşmalar oldu. Önemli bir müttefikimiz oldu. Katar ile Türkiye zaten anlaşmıştı. Katar bugün sıvılaştırılmış doğalgazı LNG olarak piyasaya sürüyor. LNG olarak piyasalara sürmek maliyetleri yükseltiyor. Hem de yüksek miktarlarda taşıma yapılamıyor. Katar doğalgazı, 2009 yılında 10 milyar dolara maliyetle, 2 bin kilometrelik dev bir boru hattıyla, Suudi Arabistan, Ürdün ve Suriye üzerinden Türkiye'ye ulaşması konusunda anlaşmaya varılmıştı. Boru hattı onun için çok daha ekonomik hale gelmektedir. Bu proje yeniden gündeme gelecektir.
Röportaj: Ali DEĞERMENCİ/ Fotoğraflar: Recai KÖMÜR