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ABD'de 5 Kasım'da yapılacak 60. başkanlık seçim leri için sayılı günler kala, Kamala Harris ile Donald Trump arasındaki rekabet iyice kızıştı.
Anket verilerini derleyen "Real Clear Politics (RCP)" platformunun yayınladığı ülke genelindeki ortalamalara göre, Harris, yüzde 49,2'lik bir destek oranına ulaşmış durumda. Bu sonuçla, Trump'ın yüzde 47,5'lik desteğinin önünde yer alıyor.
Trump-Harris yarışı iyice kızıştı (Fotoğraf: AA)
HARRİS ÜLKE GENELİNDE ÖNDE GÖTÜRÜYOR
Harris , ülke genelindeki anketlerde az bir farkla önde görünse de, Amerikan başkanlık seçim sisteminin gereği olarak en çok oyu alan değil, en fazla delegeye ulaşan aday başkan oluyor. Bu nedenle, "salıncak eyaletler" olarak adlandırılan bölgelerdeki sonuçlar daha büyük bir önem taşıyor.
"Seçiciler Kurulu" (Electoral College) sistemi nedeniyle kritik öneme sahip 7 salıncak eyalette yapılan anketlerin ortalamasında, Trump'ın Harris'in 0,7 puan önünde olduğu görülüyor.
Bu verilere göre, Trump, ekimdeki son anketlerde Pensilvanya'da 0,3, Georgia'da 0,7, Arizona'da 1,1, Nevada'da 0,5, Michigan'da 1 ve Kuzey Carolina'da 1,3 puan farkla Harris'in önünde yarışıyor.
Diğer yandan, aynı anketlerde Harris, Wisconsin'de 0,3 puan önde yer alıyor. Ancak, Michigan'da bugüne kadar sürekli önde olan Harris'in son bir haftada Trump'ın gerisine düştüğü dikkat çekiyor.
Ülke genelindeki durumu yansıtan ve Reuters, CBS News, Pew, Harvard ve NBC News gibi önde gelen anketlerin de bulunduğu 11 güncel anketin ortalamasına göre, Harris yüzde 49,2, Trump ise yüzde 47,5 oy oranına sahip.
Bu anketlerden Reuters'ın çalışmasında, Harris'e olan destek yüzde 47, Trump'a ise yüzde 44 olarak belirlenirken, Harvard anketinde Harris yüzde 51, Trump ise yüzde 49 oy oranına ulaşmış durumda.
ABD Başkan adayları Trump ve Harris (Fotoğraf: AA)
LATİN AMERİKALILAR HARRİS DİYOR
Temmuz ayında yapılan anketlerde Trump ile neredeyse aynı oy oranına sahip olan Harris'in, bu süreçte özellikle kadın ve Latin Amerika kökenli seçmenler arasında desteğini kısmen artırdığı bildiriliyor.
Seçim sistemi gereği toplam 535 delegenin dağıtılacağı ve 270 delegeye ulaşan adayın başkan olacağı bu seçimlerde, tüm gözler kritik eyaletler olan Pensilvanya, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Kuzey Carolina ve Wisconsin üzerinde yoğunlaşıyor.
Bu eyaletlerdeki güncel anketlerin delege sayılarına yansıtılması durumunda, Trump'ın Pensilvanya, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada ve Kuzey Carolina'da, Harris'in ise Michigan ve Wisconsin'de az bir farkla avantaj sağladığı görülüyor.
Eğer Trump, bu 7 salıncak eyaletin 5'inde kazanırsa, 302 delegeye ulaşabileceği, Harris'in ise 236 delegede kalabileceği tahmin ediliyor.
Bahis şirketleri Trump dedi (Fotoğraf: AA)
BAHİS ŞİRKETLERİ TRUMP'I FAVORİ GÖSTERDİ
RCP platformunun bahis şirketlerinin adayların kazanma olasılıklarına yönelik tahminlerine yer verdiği veriler, Trump'ın başkanlık yarışını kazanma ihtimalinin daha yüksek olduğunu ortaya koyuyor.
Polymarket, Smarket, Points Bet, Bwin, Bovada, Betsson ve Betfair gibi 7 ayrı şirketin verilerine göre, Trump'ın kazanma olasılığı yüzde 56,3, Harris 'in ise yüzde 42,6 olarak tahmin ediliyor. Bu bahis şirketlerinin tamamı, Trump'ın kazanma şansını yüzde 55 veya üzeri olarak değerlendiriyor.
Öte yandan ülke genelindeki tüm anketler, enflasyon ve ekonomik sorunlar, kürtaj ile ilgili tartışmalar ve sınır güvenliği konularının seçmenlerin zihnindeki ana başlıklar olduğunu gösteriyor. Bununla birlikte özellikle ABD'nin Gazze politikası Amerikalılar için kayda değer bir başlık olarak görülüyor.
Müslümanların oyları seçimleri etkileyecek (Fotoğraf: AA)
MÜSLÜMANLAR ABD'NİN GAZZE POLİTİKASINA TEPKİLİ
ABD'li Müslümanların ve Arapların en yoğun bulunduğu Michigan, 15 delegesi ile dış politika başlığının önemli bir rol oynayacağı dikkat çeken bir eyalet konumunda. Biden'ın Gazze politikasına yönelik sert eleştiriler nedeniyle, şubatta yapılan ön seçim lerde eyalet genelinde yüzde 13 "bağımsız" (uncommitted) oy kullanıldığı kaydedildi.
Muhalif demokratlar olarak ön plana çıkan bu seçmenler, İsrail'e koşulsuz desteğini eleştirdikleri Demokrat hükümete oy vermeyebileceklerini dile getirmiş ancak alternatif olarak Trump'ı görmediklerini de belirtmişti.