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Dolar şaşırttı Talep artışıyla 1.90 sınırından dönen doların yükselişi uzmanları da şaşırttı. Kimisi bu tırmanışı yabancı çıkışına bağlarken, kimisi Merkez'in faiz politikasını sebep gösterdi Giriş Tarihi : 26 Kasım 2011
Avrupa'daki borç krizi euroyu adeta çökertirken, dolar güvenli liman haline geldi. Altından da çıkan yatırımcılar dolar talebini patlatınca, bütün dünyadaki para birimleri karşısında Amerikan Doları değer kazanmayı sürdürdü. İç piyasada da hafta başında 1.82 TL olan dolar kuru dün 1.90 TL sınırına dayandı ve 1.89 TL'nin üzerini gördü.
ATEŞİ AKŞAM SÖNDÜ Borsada meydana gelen yabancı çıkışı ve içeride şirketlerin borç ödemelerinin etkisiyle dolara talep artınca, kurun yükselmesi kaçınılmaz oldu. Dün sabah saatlerinde yükselen doların ateşi akşam düştü ve 1.8790'dan günü kapattı. Euro ise gün sonu kapanışını 2.4930 TL'den yaptı. Dolardaki hareketliliği sorduğumuz uzmanlar da, görüş birliğine varamadı. Herkes kendi sebebini sıralarken, '2 lirayı bulacak' görüşü de ortaya atıldı. Bazı uzmanlar yabancı çıkışını sebep gösterdi, bazıları Avrupa'daki çöküşün doları arttırdığını savundu. Uzmanların doların artışıyla ilgili görüşleri Uzmanlar anlaşamadı
ise şöyle...
UZMANLAR ANLAŞAMADI EKONOMİST Doç. Dr. Yaşar Erdinç Doların 2 TL'yi bulacağını düşünüyorum. Çünkü Merkez Bankası'nın politika faizindeki belirsizlik yabancı yatırımcıları tedirgin ediyor. Ayrıca kısa vadede 'enflasyon yükselecek' diye düşünen yabancılar alım yapıyor. Bu da, doları yükseltiyor. İç talep büyüdü, cari açık arttı ve doların 2 TL'yi görmesi normal olur.
FİNANSBANK EKONOMİSTİ İnan Demir 2 TL'ye çıkacağı görüşüne 'olasılıklı senaryo' diyemeyiz. Ancak, son dönemde euro-dolar paritesinde çok sert hareketler görüyoruz. Doları 2 TL'ye yaklaşan seviyelerde görebiliriz ki, bunun nedeni Avrupa'daki borç krizinin derinliğidir.
EKONOMİST Taner Berksoy Yükselişin birçok nedeni bulunmaktadır. Bunların başında euroya karşı değerleniyor olması ve her yıl yaşanan yıl sonu yükselişi geliyor. Yıl sonlarında bu yükselişi hep yaşıyoruz. Uluslararası fonlar kârlı oldukları yerlerden çıkıyorlar. Pozisyonlarını kapatıyorlar. Bunlar sürekliliği olan etkenler değil. Bu bağlamda dolardaki yükseliş geriye dönebilir. Yukarı çıksa bile dolardaki artış kısa vadede hemen geri dönecektir.
ANADOLU STRATEJİSTİ Halil Reçber Dolardaki hareketliliğin en önemli nedenlerinden biri Avrupa krizinin çözülememesi... Avrupa'da krizin çözümüne dönük adımlar atılmazsa ve eğer Almanya destek vermezse büyük sıkıntılar yaşanır. Yabancıların Türkiye'den kaçtığı görüşüne katılmıyorum. Aksine risk göstergelerimiz 2009'dan bile iyi. Orta ve çok uzun vadede 2.30'u görecek dolar, kısa vadede 1.90'ın üzerine çıkmaz.
EKONOMİST Kadir Tuna Euro bölgesindeki krizin derinleşmesi doları güvenli liman haline getirdi. 2012 yılı için ortaya atılan yeni kriz beklentisi yatırımcıları altından kaçırırken, dolara doğru piyasalar likit kalmaya çalışıyor. Bu kaçış bir süre daha devam edip doları
2 TL 'ye doğru çıkartır.
FED ve
Avrupa Merkez Bankası 'nın kararına bağlı olarak para basarlarsa, dolarda düşme eğilimi görülmesi de büyük olasılık...
25 GÜNDE YÜZDE 7 KAZANÇ SAĞLADI İstanbul serbest piyasada dolar dün, 1.8810 lirayı gördü. Bu rakamla Ekim sonuna göre yüzde 6.94 oranında değer kazandı. Geçen haftayı 1.8230 liradan kapatan dolar, bu haftaya 1.8270 lira seviyesinden başlamıştı. Dolar Çarşamba günü 1.87 lira seviyelerine çıkmıştı. Bu yıl en düşük seviyesini Nisan'da 1.5000 lira ile gören dolar, 4 Ekim'de ise en yüksek seviye olarak 1.9050
TL'ye ulaştı.