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Türkiye yeniden yatırım sermayelerinin rotası oluyor Gelişmiş ülke merkez bankalarının para musluklarını açmasıyla Türkiye yeniden yatırım sermayelerinin rotası oluyor. Fed ve ECB’nin parasal genişleme sinyalleriyle tahvil faizleri rekor düşük seviyelere geriledi. Analistler, özellikle Avrupa’da yaşanacak parasal genişleme durumunda yatırımcıların önemli duraklarından biri olacak Türkiye’de de faizlerin düşmesini bekliyor. takvim.com.tr Giriş Tarihi : 27 Haziran 2019 , 09:31 Güncelleme Tarihi : 27 Haziran 2019 , 09:39
Geçen hafta açıklanan gelişmiş ülke merkez bankaları kararları ile küresel anlamda yeni bir parasal genişleme dönemine girildi. Her ne kadar bir faiz indirimi gelmese de bu yönde yapılan güçlü açıklamalar küresel piyasaların yönü konusunda etkili oldu.
Yenişafak'ın haberine göre özellikle Avrupa'da yapılacak parasal genişleme durumunda yatırımcıların önemli duraklarından biri olacak Türkiye'de de faizlerin düşmesi bekleniyor. ABD Merkez Bankası (Fed), Avrupa Merkez Bankası (ECB) ve Japonya Merkez Bankası (BoJ) geçen hafta politika faizleriyle ilgili kararlarını açıkladı. Fed ve ECB faiz indirimine dair önemli açıklamalarda bulunurken, BoJ uygulamada olan genişleyici para politikasına devam etme kararı aldı.
DÜŞÜK FAİZ VE KOLAY FON İMKANI Analistler, küresel büyümenin yavaşladığı, risk iştahının azaldığı, jeopolitik risklerin arttığı bu dönemde gelişmiş ülke merkez bankalarının aldığı kararların gelişmekte olan ülkeler açısından pozitif olacağını tahmin ediyor.
Faiz indirimleri ve varlık alımlarıyla birlikte fonlama maliyetlerinin aşağı gelmesi beklenirken, bu durum gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomilerine daha düşük faiz ödemesi, fonlara daha hızlı ulaşma fırsatı sunarken, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların artabileceği sinyalini de veriyor.
DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIM ARTIYOR Analistler, Avrupa'da yaşanacak bir parasal genişleme durumunda Türkiye'nin yatırımcıların önemli duraklarından biri olacağını belirtiyor. Küresel finans krizi sonrasında gelişen ülke merkez bankalarının parasal genişlemeye gitmesiyle Türkiye'nin de aralarında olduğu gelişmekte olan ülkeler büyük fayda sağlamıştı.Daha önce parasal genişlemenin yaşandığı dönemlerde Türkiye'ye gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) miktarında da önemli artış görüldü.
Türkiye, kendi iç ve dış dinamiklerinin büyüme için oldukça pozitif seyrettiği 2005 - 2007 döneminde rekor seviyede doğrudan yabancı yatırım çekti. 2008 krizi sonrası bu rakam yarı yarıya düşse de kriz sonrasında gözle görülür bir artış yaşandı. Türkiye ekonomisinin 2008'de 19 milyar dolar olan doğrudan yabancı yatırım tutarı, 2009'da 8,5 milyar dolara inerken, 2011 yılında 16 milyar dolar seviyesine çıktı. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların menşei incelendiğinde Türkiye'nin çektiği DYY'nin ortalama yüzde 60'ından fazlası Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinden geldi.
TİCARİ GERİLİM BÜYÜMEYİ AZALTIYOR Uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşu Fitch Ratings, ABD'nin Çin'den yapılan 300 milyar dolarlık ithalata yüzde 25 vergi uygulamasının, 2020 yılında küresel ekonomik büyümenin 0,4 puan azalmasına neden olabileceğini duyurdu. Son küresel ekonomik görünüm raporuna kıyasla küresel ekonomi için bu yıl büyüme tahmininin yüzde 2,8'den yüzde 2,7'ye, gelecek yıl için de yüzde 2,7'den yüzde 2,4'e çekildiği bildirilen açıklamada, 2020 yılında Çin'in ekonomik büyümesinin 0,6 puan, ABD'nin ise 0,4 puan azalmasının beklendiği kaydedildi.
GELİŞMİŞ ÜLKE TAHVİLLERİ TARİHİ DÜŞÜŞTE Fed ve ECB'nin yaptığı açıklamalar sonrası gelişmiş ülke tahvil getirileri tarihi düşük seviyeleri test ederken, ABD 10 yıllık tahvil faizleri yüzde 1,97 ile 9 Kasım 2016'dan bu yana en düşük seviyesine indi. Haziran başında 25 baz puan olan ABD 10 yıllık tahvil getirisi ile 3 aylık tahvil getirisi arasındaki fark, Fed açıklamaları sonrası 8 baz puana kadar geriledi. Azalan risk iştahıyla birlikte tahvillere olan talep artarken, negatif getirili borçlanma araçlarında yeni rekorlar da kırılmış oldu. Analistler, 2016'da tarihi zirvesini gören negatif getirili borçlanma araçları piyasa değerinin haziranda 12 trilyon doların üzerine çıktığını ve rekor tazelediğini dile getiriyor. İlgili varlıkların piyasa değeri 2018'de 6 trilyon dolar seviyesindeydi