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Kurban Bayramı sona erdi ve piyasalar açıldı. Bayram sonrası dolar, euro ve sterlin fiyatları oldukça merak ediliyor. 15 Ağustos 2019 dolar ne kadar? Bankacılar bugün iç piyasada işsizlik ve bütçe gerçekleşmeleri başta olmak üzere iç veri gündeminin dış piyasalarda ise Arjantin ve ABD'de resesyon endişeleriyle tetiklenen küresel risk iştahının seyrini takip edecekler. Dolar/TL saat 09.24 itibarıyla güne 5.5575/ 5.5610 seviyesinde işlem görüyor. Doların söz konusu seviyelerdeki seyri devam ediyor.
ABD'nin 10 yıllık hazine tahvil getirisinin dün gün içinde 2 yıllık tahvil getirisinin altına düşmesi hisse senedi piyasalarında karışıklığa yol açtı. ABD'nin 2 yıllık ve 10 yıllık hazine tahvil getirileri 2007 yılından bu yana ilk defa tersine dönerken bu, yaklaşan bir resesyon işareti olarak görülüyor. Arjantin'de muhalif aday Alberto Fernandez'in Pazar günü yapılan cumhurbaşkanlığı ön seçimlerini büyük bir çoğunlukla kazanmasının ardından Fernandez hükümetinin müdahaleci ekonomi politikalarına dönebileceği endişeleriyle peso dolar karşısında 65 ile tüm zamanların en düşük seviyesini görmüştü. Peso/dolar bugün 60.2380 seviyesinde bulunuyor ancak CDS fiyatlamaları temerrüt ihtimalinin ciddi ölçüde arttığına işaret ediyor.
TL'Yİ CİDDİ ŞEKİLDE ETKİLEDİ
Bir bankanın döviz masası işlemcisi, "Küresel piyasalarda yaşanan endişe son dönemde getiri ile öne çıkan TL'yi de ciddi şekilde etkiledi. Nitelikli bir gösterge olan CDS fiyatlamalarına baktığımızda geçen yıl Ağustosta 550'yi aşan ve bu ay başında 350 puana kadar gerileyen 5 yıl vadeli CDS'in 400 puanın üzerine çıktığını görüyoruz. Burada iki neden ön plana çıkıyor" dedi ve ekledi:
"Arjantin piyasalarında yaşanan gerilim onların CDS'lerini 2000 puanın da üzerine çıkardı. Arjantin'in dış borçlarını ödeyemeyeceği bir süreç artık fiyatlarda. Bu etkinin gelişmekte olan ülkeler geneline yayılım ihtimali TL'yi baskılayan bir sebep. İkinci sebep ise ABD tahvillerindeki seyir. Geçmişte benzer fiyatlamalar olduğu döneme baktığımızda piyasanın ABD'nin 20 ay içinde bir resesyon yaşayacağını fiyatladığını söyleyebiliriz."
Bu satış baskısının dolar/TL'ye 5.45'li seviyelerden 5.63'e kadar yükseliş olarak yansısa da kayıpların bir kısmı geri alınmış durumda. Bankacı "TL'ye yansımaya baktığımızda %2 civarı bir kayıp ve bunun da tamamının kalıcı olmadığını görüyoruz. Bunun anlamı konjonktür hava TL'den yana pozitif demek. ABD ile ilişkiler jeopolitik gelişmeler de önemli olacak" dedi.
Analistler TL'de yüksek getiri, küresel merkez bankaların genişlemeci politikaları, Türkiye-ABD ilişkilerine yönelik olumlu beklentiler, S-400 konusunun daha arka planda kalmasının yanı sıra yerli yatırımcının döviz talebinin sakinleşmesi ve TL'de açığa satışın maliyetinin yüksek olmasının kurda yukarı yönlü spekülatif hareketleri engellemesinin de TL'ye olumlu yansıdığını belirtiyor.
ABD ile koordineli bir şekilde Suriye kuzeyinde tesis edilmesi planlanan güvenli bölge konusu da piyasalarda takip edilirken TSK'ın dünkü açıklamasına göre bölgede insansız hava araçları görev almaya başladı.