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İngiliz ekonomist O'Neill: Türkiye krizi geride bıraktı Chatham House'ın Konsey Başkanı ünlü İngiliz ekonomist O'Neill, "Türkiye, etkileri çok kötü olabilecek bir krizi makul ve iyi bir şekilde geride bırakmış görünüyor." dedi. takvim.com.tr Giriş Tarihi : 26 Kasım 2019 , 14:31 Güncelleme Tarihi : 26 Kasım 2019 , 14:36
Daha önce Goldman Sachs Portföy Yönetimi Başkanlığı'nı da yürüten Jim O'Neill yaptığı açıklamada, Chatham House'ın "İngiliz Kraliyet Uluslararası İlişkiler Enstitüsü" anlamına geldiğini ve dünyaya ortaklaşa bir şekilde faydalı olabilecek prensiplerin geliştirilmesine çalıştığını anlattı.
Türkiye'nin her zaman olduğu gibi etkileyici ve karmaşık olduğunu düşündüğünü ifade eden O'Neill, "Türkiye'nin bulunduğu bölge dünyanın en ilginç bölgelerinde biri. Buna ilaveten Türkiye'nin bir tarihi var. Türkiye özelikle Avrupa'nın perspektifinden hep bir Doğu-Batı kültürü olarak görülmüş ve iyi bir demografiye sahip. Eğer Türkiye, AB'ye katılırsa bunun Avrupa için inanılmaz faydası olur." diye konuştu.
Türkiye'nin, bölgesinde İran, Irak, Suriye ve Rusya gibi Batı için karmaşık görünen ülkelerle komşuluk ettiğini hatırlatan O'Neill, "Şu anki yönetiminiz, bu karmaşık komşular arasında yönünü buluyor gibi görünüyor." dedi.
"TÜRKİYE'NİN 2030-2040 ARASINDA İLK 10'A GİRME ŞANSI VAR" Türkiye ekonomisindeki gelişmelere de değinen O'Neill, "Basite indirgenmiş, genel ekonomik gözlemlerin tersine Türkiye, geçen 2 yıl içerisinde gerçekleşseydi (etkileri) çok kötü olabilecek bir krizi şu ana kadar makul ve iyi bir şekilde geride bırakmış görünüyor. Özellikle cari denge yeniden dengelendi. Ekonomi birçok insanın düşündüğü kadar zayıf değil. Türkiye, her zaman olduğu gibi ilginç ve kompleks." ifadelerini kullandı.
O'Neill, yıllar önce bir radyo programında MINT ülkeleri (Meksika, Endonezya, Nijerya ve Türkiye) ifadesini kullandığını belirterek, şöyle devam etti:
"Bu, bir sonraki grupta olan 4 ekonomiyi temsil ediyor. Türkiye, kesinlikle bunlarda biri... Fiilen Türkiye'nin 2023 yılında dünyanın en büyük 10 ekonomisi içerisinde yer alması mümkün değil. Fakat bir sonraki 10 yıllık dönem içerisinde (2030-2040) Türkiye doğru şeyleri yaparsa şansı var. Nüfusu Türkiye'den yaklaşık 4 kat daha büyük olan Endonezya'nın ise ilk 10 arasına katılması daha olası. Fakat evet, Türkiye (ilk 10'da) olabilir."
"BRICS , 18 YIL SONRA HALA YAŞIYOR" Jim O'Neill, BRICS terimini ilk kez 18 yıl önce kendisinin bulduğunu, bu terimin gelişen ekonomiler ve küresel ekonomiyi anlamak için bugün hala geçerli olduğunu söyledi.
BRICS ülkeleri liderlerinin, bir süre önce 11. toplantılarını yaptığını hatırlatan O'Neill, "Bu kısaltma hala yaşıyor. Bugünün kullanışlı bilgeliği çerçevesinde 'Bu bir pazarlama sloganıydı. Sadece Çin ve Hindistan olmalıydı. Brezilya ve Rusya umutsuz vaka' gibi eleştirenler var. Fakat asıl noktayı kaçırıyorlar. Bugün BRICS'in 20. yılına doğru yaklaşıyoruz ve BRICS, dünya ekonomisinin yüzde 25'lik kısmını oluşturuyor. Ben bu terimi bulduğumda bu pay sadece yüzde 7'ydi." şeklinde konuştu.
"2035 YILINDA BRICS ÜLKELERİNİN G7 ÜLKELERİNDEN DAHA BÜYÜK OLMASI OLASI" Chatham House Konsey Başkanı O'Neill, Brezilya'nın, şu anda İtalya ekonomisine neredeyse eşit büyüklükte olduğunu ve dünyanın ilk 10 ekonomisi içerisinde yer aldığını belirterek, bunun 18 yıl önce tahmin edilemediğini söyledi.
O'Neill, devamla şunları kaydetti:
"2035 yılında BRICS ülkelerinin G7 ülkelerinden daha büyük olması olası. Zaten BRICS'i de meşhur eden bu. Eğer önümüzdeki 10 yıl içerisinde Hindistan, çok büyük bir kriz olmazsa ekonomisi Fransa ve İngiltere'den dikkate değer bir şekilde daha büyük olacak. Önümüzdeki 10 yıl bitmeden Hindistan, Almanya'yı zorlayarak dünyanın en büyük üçüncü ekonomisi olacak. Tabii ki Çin'in ekonomisi de ABD'ye yaklaşacak."
"ABD-ÇİN ANLAŞMASI OLMAZSA BİR RESESYONA İLERLEYEBİLİRİZ" Jim O'Neill, ABD ve Çin arasındaki ticari gerilimlerin küresel ekonomiyi yavaşlattığını vurgulayarak, "Eğer ticaret yaptırımları devam ederse, ABD Başkanı Donald Trump Çin ile bir anlaşma yapmazsa bu durum kötüleşebilir ve bir resesyona ilerleyebiliriz. Fakat bana umut veren ise Çin'in de en az benim kadar endişeli olduğu, ekonomilerinin daha fazla zayıflamasını engellemek için bir şeyler yapacağı fikri... ABD, gelecek yıl seçime gidiyor ve bu yüzden Trump, Çin'le anlaşmaya çalışacaktır." diye konuştu.
ABD Merkez Bankası'nın (Fed) genişlemeci para politikasının halihazırda gelişen ekonomileri olumlu etkilediği ifade eden O'Neill, "Bu yıl dünyada ekonomik yavaşlamaya rağmen Fed'in genişlemesi, Türkiye dahil birçok ülkeye çok yardımcı oldu. İlginç bir şekilde, çok sıcak olmayan bir küresel ekonominin dışsal anlamda Türkiye için daha destekleyici olduğunu düşünüyorum." dedi.