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Dolarda resesyon alarmı! Amerikan Merkez Bankası korona virüsünün global piyasaları verdiği tahribatı önlemek adına sert önlemler alıyor. Dün açıklanan sınırsız varlık alımı açıklaması ile birlikte dünya borsa ları ufak ufak toparlanmaya başladı. Dünya piyasalarını ve ABD ekonomisini rahatlatmak adına 2 trilyon dolar piyasaya süreceğini ilan eden FED 'in bunu karşılığı olmayan dolar basarak yapacağı söyleniyor. Peki bugün dolar ne kadar oldu? Detaylar haberimizde... Resesyon, bir ülkenin ekonomik faaliyetlerinde en az altı ay süreyle gerileme yaşanması nedeniyle reel gayri safi yurt içi hasılanın düşmesi, ekonomik faaliyetlerde duraklaması, negatif anlamda istikrarlı bir konjonktür dalgasında doruğu izleyen reel ekonomik faaliyet düzeyinde ılımlı daralma aşamasıdır.
RESESYON ALARMI GELDİ
Bank of America yatırımcılarına yaptığı uyarıda, Covid-19 salgını nedeniyle ekonomide resesyonun artık önlenemeyeceğini, bunun etkilerinin de görülmeye başladığını duyurdu.
Fakat Meyer, ekonomideki daralmanın ciddi olmasına rağmen bu düşüşün kısa ömürlü olacağına inandıklarını da sözlerine ekledi. Nisan ayında önemli bir düşüş beklenirken, temmuz ayına kadar ekonominin biraz daha normale dönmesi öngörülüyor.
Bank of Amerika öngörülerine göre ABD ekonomisi 2'nci çeyrekte yüzde 12 küçülecek, tüm yıl için de GSYİH yüzde 0.8 daralacak. Geçtiğimiz günlerde, Uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşu Fitch Ratings , Covid-19 salgınının ülkelerin mali durumlarını zayıflatacağını bildirmişti.
Açıklamada, salgından etkilenen ülkelerin karşılaştığı en temel ekonomik sonucun faaliyetlerin ani bir şekilde durması olduğu vurgulanmıştı.
Parasal Genişleme Başlarsa 2008'de Olduğu Gibi Doları Dip Yaptırır!
Finans uzmanları FED 'in açıkladığı derecede bir parasal genişlemeye gitmesi tüm dünyada doların değer kaybına neden olacağını iddia ediyorlar.
2008 Yılında Ne Olmuştu?
Önceki yıllarda 1.60 seviyelerini gören dolar kuru ABD 'nin parasal genişlemeye gitmesi ile birlikte ülkemizde 1.15 seviyelerine kadar gerilemişti. 2008 Yılında Ne Olmuştu?
Önceki yıllarda 1.60 seviyelerini gören dolar kuru ABD'nin parasal genişlemeye gitmesi ile birlikte ülkemizde 1.15 seviyelerine kadar gerilemişti.
DOLAR
USDTRY- Yükselen Trend Çizgisinin Altına Çekildi
Geçtiğimiz hafta 6.5000 bölgesi üzerine yerleşen USDTRY paritesi yeni haftanın ilk işlem haftasında da yükseliş eğilimini sürdürerek 6.60 bölgesini test etti. Ancak bu bölgeden gelen kar satışlarıyla parite 6.55 bölgesine doğru yeniden çekildi. Teknik açıdan bakıldığında, kar satışlarının siyah yükselen trend çizgisi ve 6.5421 desteği altına sarkan paritede geri çekilmenin sürmesi halinde 6.4600 ve 6.350 seviyeleri destek bölgeleri olarak takip edilebilir. Diğer yandan paritede yükseliş eğiliminin yeniden ön plana çıkması durumunda ise 6.6085 ve 6.6450 seviyeleri direnç olarak izlenebilir.
Destekler: 6.5421-6.4600-6.3750
Dirençler: 6.6085-6.6450-6.7000
Uzmanlar dolara yatırım yapmış olanları FED 'in politika ve uygulamalarını yakından takip etmeleri konusunda uyarıyorlar. Eğer gerçekten bu büyük parasal genişleme gerçekleşecek olursa dolar kuru nda ciddi anlamda düşüşler gerçekleşecektir.
İlk uyarı 6.60 seviyesinde yapılmıştı. Şu anda ise 6.40 seviylerinden işlem görüyor dolar.
ÜLKE EKONOMİLERİ NEDEN RESESYONA GİRER?
Ekonomik büyümenin nüfus artış hızının altına inmesi, Kişibaşına düşen milli gelir in durağan ve gerileyen haline dönüşmesi, İşsizliğin artması, Ekonomik faaliyetlerin duraklaması ve gerilemesi, Üretim faaliyetlerinin düşmesi, gibi sonuçla ülkelerin resesyona girmelerindeki en temel sebepleri oluşturur. Resesyon, makro ekonomide geleneksel olarak reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasılanın(GSYİH) iki veya daha fazla çeyrek yıllık periyodda arka arkaya negatif büyüme göstermesi durumudur. Uzun bir resesyon ekonomik çöküş olarak nitelendirilir.
Durgunlukla mücadelede kamu harcamaları siyaseti, ekonominin tam çalışma düzeyinde balansa kavuşabilmesi için özel harcamalardaki yetersizliklerin, kamu harcamaları ile giderilmesi neticesini doğurmaktadır. Bu tür bir politika ile milli gelir düzeyinin düşmesi önlenmiş, özel sektör harcamalarının azalmasına mani olunmuş ve ekonomideki daraltıcı güçler ortadan kaldırılmaya çalışılarak genişleme sürecine sokulmuş olacaktır.
Durgunlukla mücadelede, kamu harcamalarını aynı düzede bırakarak vergileri azaltma yoluna gidilebilmektedir. Vergileri azaltma politikasının etkinliği için verginin konusunun geniş olması gerekir ki vergi indirimlerinden daha çok kişi istifade ederek, kullanılabilir gelir artarak kişilerin tüketim ve yatırım harcamalarında artış sağlanabilecektir.
RESESYON ETKİLERİ NELERDİR?
Ülke ekonomisi küçülür ve dolayısıyla GSYH negatif büyüme gösterir,
Ülkenin yerel para birimi döviz kurları karşısında değer kaybeder,
İthal ürünlerin fiyatları artar ve ürünlerden kaynaklı bir enflasyon baskısı oluşur. Bu nedenle halkın alım gücü azalır,
Sanayi üretiminde düşüş yaşanır ve işsizlik oranı artar,
Borsa ve para piyasalarına ciddi zarar verir.
DOLAR NEDİR?
Amerikan doları, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nin resmî para birimidir. ABD doları diye de adlandırılır. Dünyada en yaygın kullanılan dövizdir. 2004 yılında dünyada dolaşımda yaklaşık 950 milyar Amerikan doları olduğu tahmin edilmektedir. Bu miktarın 2/3'ü ABD dışındadır
DOLARIN TARİHİ
ABD doları tarihçesi iki yüz yılı aşkın bir süreci kapsar. Yeni kıtada kâğıt para dönemi 1600'lü yılların sonlarında İngiliz kolonilerinde askeri maliyetleri karşılamak içim basılan banknotlar ile başlamıştır. İlk banknot 1690 yılında Massachusetts Körfezi Kolonisi'nde basılarak dolaşıma çıkmıştır.