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Son dakika: Koronavirüs petrol fiyatlarını vurdu! "20 doların altına düşebilir" Çin’in Wuhan kentinde ortaya çıkan ve 6 kıtayı etkisi altına alan yeni tip koronavirüs petrol fiyatlarını vurdu. Konuyla ilgili değerlendirmelerde bulunan uzmanlar, “Ham petrol üreticileri bunu daha çok kayıplarını telafi etmek amacıyla yapacaktır ama fiyatlar kesinlikle 20 doların altına düşebilir” ifadelerini kullandı. takvim.com.tr Giriş Tarihi : 30 Mart 2020 , 12:30 Güncelleme Tarihi : 30 Mart 2020 , 12:32
Dünya genelinde hızla yayılan koronavirüs (Kovid-19) nedeniyle küresel petrol talebi zayıf seyrederken, petrol piyasasına gelecek ay girmesi beklenen ek üretimle birlikte fiyatların 20 doların altına düşmesi ihtimali güçlendi.
Koronavirüs nedeniyle küresel piyasalarda çalkantı devam ederken, Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya arasındaki "petrol piyasasındaki pay ve fiyat savaşı" sebebiyle Brent türü ham petrolün varil fiyatı 18 Mart'ta 25 doların altına düştü.
Hükümetlerin Kovid-19'la mücadele kapsamında açıkladıkları ekonomi paketleriyle mali ve parasal politikalar petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşü yavaşlatsa da fiyatlar 16 Mart'tan bu yana 30 doların altında seyrediyor.
Uzmanlara göre, Kovid-19 tehdidi devam ettiği sürece petrol fiyatları 20 doların altına inebilir ve hatta 10 dolar bandına kadar gerileyebilir.
Konuyla ilgili değerlendirmelerde bulunan Houston Üniversitesi Enerji Ekonomisti Ed Hirs, virüsün yaz aylarında yayılmaya devam etmesi halinde dünya genelinde petrol depolarının muhtemelen tam kapasiteye ulaşacağını vurguladı.
Bu durumda petrol kuyularında gerçekleşecek üretimin stoklanamayacağına ve üreticilerin petrol üretimlerini durdurmak zorunda kalacağına dikkati çeken Hirs, "Bazı kargoların 20 doların altında alınıp satılması mümkün olabilir. Ham petrol üreticileri bunu daha çok kayıplarını telafi etmek amacıyla yapacaktır ama fiyatlar kesinlikle 20 doların altına düşebilir." dedi.
Hirs, petrol fiyatlarındaki gidişatın Kovid-19 karantinalarının ne kadar süreceğiyle doğrudan ilişkili olduğunu belirterek, şunları kaydetti:
"Daha sonrası için de piyasanın ne kadar çabuk sürede toparlandığı önemli olacak. Fiyatların 20 doların altına düşmesi durumunda birçok üretici ülke zarar görür. Rusya en az etkilenen olur ve rublenin değerini de düşürerek kendi kendine yetebilir. Diğer yandan, Norveç de düşük fiyatlarla bir süre daha idare edebilir. Bu fiyat seviyesinden en çok Suudi Arabistan zarar görür ama onlar da bunun için uzun zamandır hazırlanıyordu."
"DÜŞÜK FİYATLAR ÜRETİMİ DURDURMA NOKTASINA GELEBİLİR" Dubai merkezli petrol yatırım danışmanlık firması Hormuz Straits Partnership Direktörü Serkan Şahin, şu an piyasada fiziki karşılık bulan tek öngörünün petrol talebindeki düşüş olduğunun altını çizdi.
Virüs sebebiyle ileriye dönük büyük bir belirsizlik olduğunu vurgulayan Şahin, "Asya'da toparlanma olduğunu duyuyoruz ancak orada da virüsün ikinci ya da üçüncü dalgasının yurt dışı kaynaklı olarak büyümesi endişesi var ve bu endişe de ileriye dönük baskının kaybolmasını engelliyor." dedi.
Şahin, ayrıca, Petrol İhraç Edenler Örgütü (OPEC) dışı bazı petrol üreticisi ülkelerin üretimlerini kısıtlamama kararının doğru olduğunu belirterek, şöyle konuştu:
"Ancak burada teknik olarak yeni fiziki arzın gelmesi çok zor. Virüsün ortaya koyduğu korku ve panik, devletleri önlem alma ve bireyleri gönüllü olarak günlük hayatlarından feragat etmeye zorluyor. Bu da günlük ekonomik aktivitenin yavaşlamasına ve petrol talebinde olumsuz etki oluşmasına neden oluyor. Temelde bugünkü talepten ziyade bu talebin daha ne kadar düşeceği ve bu sorunun ne kadar süreceğinin bilinmemesi var. Ben petrol fiyatlarının 10 dolar seviyesine kadar ineceğini sanmıyorum. Bu senaryo küresel bir çöküşle mümkün olabilir, ama fiyatlar bu kadar inerse birçok yerde üretim durur. O fiyatta üretim olmayacağı için bu sefer arz tarafında baskı oluşur ve bu noktada da fiyat kendisini dengeler. Ayrıca, virüsün ABD'deki etkisini henüz görmedik. Virüs nedeniyle ABD'de kara sondajları durursa piyasada arz kaynaklı baskılar yine artar."
Öte yandan, petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşün ekonomisi petrole bağımlı ülkeleri rekabet edemez hale getireceğini aktaran Şahin, Irak, Kolombiya, Meksika, Venezuela, Kazakistan ve Kanada gibi ülkelerin bu grupta yer aldığını dile getirdi.
"FİYATLAR 10 DOLARI GÖREBİLİR" Norveç merkezli enerji araştırma kuruluşu Rystad Energy Kıdemli Petrol Piyasaları Analisti Paola Rodriguez-Masiu ise piyasaların daha düşük fiyatlara hazırlanması gerektiği uyarısında bulundu.
Bu yıl küresel petrol talebinde günlük 2,8 milyon varillik düşüş öngören Rodriguez-Masiu, şunları söyledi:
"Talebin yılın ikinci çeyreğinde günlük 6 milyon varil azaldığını göreceğiz. OPEC dışı ülkeler, nisan itibarıyla günlük 2,5 milyon varil üretimi piyasaya sürdükten sonraysa petrol fiyatlarında 10 dolar bandını göreceğimizi düşünüyoruz. En kötü senaryoda petrol fiyatları 10 doların altına bile düşebilir. Bu da birçok petrol üretim tesisinin kapanmasına yol açacak. Talepteki dramatik düşüşün karşılanması ve petrol stoklarının sürdürülebilir bir seviyeye gelmesi için bu üretim tesislerinin kapanması zorunlu hale gelecek."
Bu arada, dünya genelinde en yaygın kullanılan Brent türü ham petrolün varil fiyatı, bugün saat 11.25'te 23,32 dolarla Kasım 2002'den bu yana en düşük seviyeye geriledi.