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Hazine ve Maliye Bakanı Berat Albayrak çok özel değerlendirmelerde bulundu. Virüs sonrasında küresel ekonomide yaşanacaklarla ilgili ufuk turu yapan Albayrak,
Türkiye 'nin mücadelede aldığı önlemlere, bundan sonra yapılacaklara ve salgın sonrası ekonominin nasıl toparlanacağına dair her soruya yanıt verdi. İşte Albayrak'ın açıklamaları...
Kovid-19 salgını küresel ekonomiyi nasıl etkiledi, toparlanma süreci için öngörünüz nedir? Küresel ekonomi maalesef salgına hazırlıksız yakalandı. 2008 sonrası para ve maliye politikalarında eşgüdüm sağlanmadı. Büyümeler, hâlâ küresel anlamda hedeflenen seviyelere ulaşamadı. ABD ve diğer gelişmiş ülkeler arasında da ciddi bir uyumsuzluk söz konusuydu. Ticaret savaşları bu uyumsuzluğun en somut ortaya çıkış biçimiydi. İlaveten Brexit ve AB kaynaklı siyasi belirsizlikler de eklendiğinde salgın küresel ekonomiyi de hızla etkisi altına aldı. Küresel ölçekte borsaların gerilemesine, genel olarak ülke risk primlerinin yükselmesine, finansal varlık gruplarının ve gelişmekte olan ülke para birimlerinin değer kaybetmesine, gelişmekte olan ülkelerden para çıkışı yaşandığına, tüm dünyada ekonomik aktivitenin yavaşlamasına, hanehalkı gelirlerinin azalmasına, işsizliğin artmasına şahit olduk. Salgın ne kadar hızlı kontrol altına alınırsa toparlanma süreci de o kadar hızlı olacaktır. Ülke olarak bizim salgınla mücadelede başarılı olmamız önemli, ancak tam anlamıyla normalleşmenin gerçekleşebilmesi için yakın ticaret ortağımız olan ülkeler ile bize çok sayıda turist gönderen ülkelerin de ekonomik anlamda normale dönmesi önemli. Şunu net olarak söylemeliyim ki, ülkemizin en büyük şanslarından biri özellikle böyle bir salgın döneminde Sayın Cumhurbaşkanımızın liderliğinde, neyin ne olduğunu bilen bir kadro tarafından yönetiliyor olasıdır. Bizim değerlendirmelerimize göre küresel ekonomide toparlanma 2021 yılının başlarında ancak başlayabilecek.
İLAVE TEDBİR ALIRIZ Kovid-19 mücadelesinde Türkiye'nin uyguladığı ekonomik reçetenin kapsayıcılığı ve etkinliği noktasında ilk veriler, geri dönüşler hakkında bilgi verir misiniz? Salgınla mücadelede tarihi bir başarı ortaya koyduk. Dünyanın neredeyse tamamında gördüğümüz olumsuz görüntülerin 1 tanesi bile ülkemizde yaşanmadı. Bundan sonra yatırımcılara, sağlık, ulaşım, üretim, teknoloji gibi alanlardaki kapasitemizi ya da altyapımızı anlatmayacağız. Çünkü tüm dünya
Türkiye fotoğrafını net bir şekilde görmüş oldu. En önemli kazanımlardan birisi bu oldu. Ülke olarak da bir zihinsel eşiği de aşmış durumdayız. "Biz Yapamayız" duvarı yıkılmıştır. Bundan sonrası için de gerek güçlü üretim altyapımız, gerek dünyada Türkiye'ye karşı oluşan teveccüh, gerekse dinamik iç pazarımız toparlanma süreci ve sonrası için büyük potansiyel sunacaktır. 4.4 milyon ailemize nakdi yardım yaptık. İşini kaybeden vatandaşlarımızı da ayrıca bu yardım kapsamına alıyoruz. KGF paketli İş'e Devam Paketi kapsamında 144 bin 446 firmamıza yaklaşık 121,1 milyar TL finansman sağlandı. Şirketlerin yüzde 97'sini KOBİ'ler oluşturdu. Aylık geliri 5.000 TL'den az vatandaşlarımız için sunulan destek kapsamında 5 milyon 52 bin vatandaşımıza 29.2 milyar TL kaynak sunuldu. Yaklaşık 878 bin esnafımıza 19.7 milyar TL finansman sağladık. Eksiklerimiz olabilir, ancak devamlı olarak sahadan talepleri topluyor, gereken ilave tedbirleri alıyoruz. Tüm başvurularda yüzde 85'in üzerinde, dünyada eşi benzeri olmayan bir geri dönüş, finansman sağlama oranı yakaladık.
TURİZMDE KAYIP YIL OLMAMASI İÇİN PLAN HAZIRLANIYOR İhracat ve
turizm gelirleri noktasında yeni tahmin seviyesi nedir? Cari açığın finansmanı için formülünüz var mı? Biliyorsunuz 2019'u
Türkiye 'de bir ilk olarak hem pozitif büyüme hem de cari fazlanın birlikte gözlendiği bir yıl olarak kapattık. Küresel salgın ile birlikte dış talepte gördüğümüz düşüş ve özellikle uluslararası dolaşımda gördüğümüz önemli kısıtlamalar, nisan sonu itibarıyla ihracatımızda yıllık bazda yüzde 40 kadar bir düşüş olduğunu gösteriyor. Turizm tarafında her ne kadar yılın ilk iki ayı oldukça güçlü geçmiş olsa da, muhtemelen yılın üçüncü çeyreğinden önce kayda değer bir iyileşme görmek mümkün olmayacak. Bununla birlikte, ihracat ve turizm gelirlerinde beklenen düşüşe rağmen, cari açığı olumlu etkileyecek gelişmeler de görüyoruz. Enerji ve diğer emtia fiyatlarında küresel bazda gözlenen önemli düşüş ve iç talebin daralmasıyla ithal ürünlere olan talebin düşmesi, dengeleyici faktörler olarak rol oynayacak. 2020'de cari dengenin makul ılımlı seviyelerde gideceğini görüyoruz. Ülkemiz milli gelirin yüzde 4-5'i seviyelerinde
cari açık gördüğü dönemlerde dahi finansman açısından sıkıntı yaşamamıştır. Bu öngörüler ışığında ben cari açığın finansmanı anlamında bir sorunumuz olduğunu düşünmüyorum. Hazine ve
Maliye Bakanlığı 'ndaki arkadaşlarımız, Turizm Bakanlığımız, turizmde 2020 yılının kayıp yıl olmaması için bir eylem planı hazırlıyorlar. Detaylar netleştiğinde onu da kamuoyu ile paylaşırız.
BİR NEVİ TEFECİLİK YAPARSANIZ DEVLET İZİN VERMEZ Özel bankalar, bilhassa yabancı sermayeli olanlar Kovid-19 şokunun atlatılmasında neden elini taşın altına uzatmıyorlar?
Bu soruya özellikle finansal anlamda bir cevap vermek gerçekten zor. Verilecek kredilerinde maliyetlerin yüksek olması nedeniyle banka ların kredi vermemesi anlaşılabilir. Ancak politika faiz inden mevduat faizine kadar Türk Lirası tarafında tüm faizlerin düştüğü veya öngörülebilir bantta hareket ettiği bir dönemdeyiz. Fiyatlamaları bu açıdan rahatlıkla yapıp risklerini de bu fiyatlamalarla yönetebilme imkânları olduğu çok açık ortada. Sözünü ettiğiniz bankalar maalesef ihtiyatlı davranıyoruz iddiasıyla yaklaşık iki yıldır reel sektöre ihtiyacı olan finansmanı sağlamaktan imtina ediyor. Bugün de Kovid- 19 ile ilgili belirsizlikler devam ederken kredi kullandırmayı ticari anlamda doğru bulmadıkları söyleniyor. Tabi siz, 'şu kadar teminatım var, müşterim batarsa batsın, teminatımı alır zarar etmem,' düşüncesiyle hareket ediyor ve bir nevi tefecilik türünde bir faaliyet yürütüyorsanız, bizim de devlet olarak buna müsaade etmemiz, kimse kusura bakmasın, mümkün olmaz. Son olarak ülkemizin kıymetli finansal kaynaklarının daha fazla sayıda ihtiyaç sahibinin kullanımına açılması amacıyla düzenleyici kurumumuz BDDK da oldukça önemli adımlar attı. Bu noktada yeni Aktif Rasyosu düzenlemeleri bu soruna kesin bir çözüm buluyor olacaktır. Bankalardan beklentimiz reel sektöre ve hane halklarına kredi kanallarını açık tutmaya devam etmeleridir. Bu bağlamda ilgili bütün aktörlerle uyum içerisinde adımlar atmaya devam edeceğiz.
NORMALLEŞME İLE BÜYÜME POTANSİYELİNE DÖNERİZ Salgın sonrasında Türkiye'de kamu maliyesinin ve piyasaların nasıl şekil alacağını düşünüyorsunuz?
Ağustos 2018'de başlayan kur saldırılarının ve ekonomimizi doğrudan hedef alan girişimlerin neden olduğu tahribatla mücadele ettiğimiz dengelenme sürecinin sonunda bu salgına yakalandık. Özellikle enflasyon ve faiz ile mücadelemizde sağladığımız kazanımlar sayesinde bugün bu denli büyük bir nakit imkânını piyasalara sunabildik. Şimdi dengelenme sonrası, "Katma değerli, ihracat ve istihdama dayalı üretim" olarak tanımladığımız değişim sürecini tam anlamıyla hayata geçirecek potansiyelimiz olduğunu görüyoruz. Öncelikli hedefimiz bu olacak. Bu yıl geçici bir şekilde bütçe açığımız artacaktır. Ancak borç stokumuzun milli gelire oranı sadece yüzde 32 ve bu oranda her türlü kriterde dünya ortalamalarından çok daha iyi durumdayız. Süreç sonunda dünya ortalamaları ile farkımız bizim lehimize artacaktır, bu durum orta ve uzun vadede kredi riski algısının iyileşmesine katkı sağlayacaktır. Kamu maliyesi yönetimimiz manevra açısından bugün birçok ülkenin karşı karşıya kaldığı çaresizlikler içinde olmayıp tam tersi olabildiğince geniş bir alana sahiptir. Piyasalarda da acil likidite ihtiyacı yaşanmaması amacıyla atılan adımların olumlu sonuçlarını görüyoruz. Normalleşme ile birlikte Türkiye 'nin güçlü büyüme potansiyeline hızla geri döneceğine inanıyorum. Ayrıca bono faizlerindeki düşüş finansman yükümüzü de azaltıyor. KORUMACILIK ARTACAK Kovid-19 sonrasında nasıl bir küresel sistem tasavvur ediyorsunuz? İşbirliği mi, yoksa korumacılık mı ön plana çıkacak?
Birçok sektörde korumacılığın artacağı, yerel paralarla ticaretin ve dengeli dış ticaretin ön plana çıkacağı, serbest ticaret anlaşmaları ve gümrük birliklerinin yeniden gözden geçirileceği bir dünyaya doğru gidiyoruz. Biz de cari açığımız içinde önemli payı olan, açık verdiğimiz ülkelerle yerel paralarla ticaret ve ithalat düzenlemeleri konusunda önümüzdeki 1-2 ay içinde kararlı adımlar atacağız. Artık yeni bir sistemin ve oyun planının kurgulanması, karşılıklı eşitlik üzerine bir ticari dengenin kurgulanması esas. Şu anda küresel tedarik zincirleri geri dönülemez şekilde değişiyor. Dünya, tüm tedariğin belli coğrafyalara yoğunlaşmasının sakıncalarını gördü. Coğrafi konumumuzun sağladığı avantajları hayata geçirmek için çok olumlu bir dönem olacak, çeviklik kavramının önemi ortaya çıkacak ve Türkiye birçok sektörde bunun meyvelerini alacak. SABAH