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COVID-19 pandemisinde ikinci dalga endişeleri borsaları ve petrol fiyatlarını düşürürken, bu endişeler parasal ve mali teşviklerin uzun bir süre devam edeceği beklentisiyle altına yarıyor. ABD Merkez Bankası (Fed ) Başkanı Jerome Powell'in negatif faiz enstrümanını kullanmayacaklarını söylemesine rağmen COMEX altının onsu Powell'in konuşması sırasında 'uzun süre zayıf büyüme' vurgusuna paralel yüzde 1'in üzerinde yükselerek 1.726,50 dolar seviyesini gördü. Spot altının onsu ise 1.711 dolara kadar yükseldi.
COMEX altının onsu TSİ 16:50'de yüzde 0.4 artıda 1,714 dolardan işlem görürken, spot altının onsu da aynı saatlerde 1.714 dolardan işlem gördü.
2018'DEKİNE BENZER PATİKADA Altında yeni zirveler görülebileceğini öngören uzmanların sayısı artıyor. Ne zaman sorusuna ilişkin farklı öngörüler olsa da, altında 2 bin hatta 3 bin doların görülebileceğine ilişkin tahminler var. Bloomberg Intelligence Kıdemli Emtia Stratejisti Mike McGlone, geçen hafta yaptığı açıklamada altının 2018'deki 1.000 dolar seviyesini kırıp 1.900 düzeylerini geçtiği benzer bir patikada olduğunu belirtti. McGlone "Altının 'basamaklı bir iyileşme döneminde 1,900 dolar zirvesini geçebileceğini öngörüyoruz" değerlendirmesini yaptı.
Commerzbank ise altında iki yönlü tüm faktörlerin güçlü olduğunu belirterek atlın işlem hacminde artış olacağına işaret ediyor. Commerzbank analisti Eugen Weinberg "Bir yandan fiziksel mücevher talebi çok cansız, öte yandan sermayesini korumak isteyen yatırımcıların talebinde artış var" diyor. Fed 'i izleyeceklerini belirten Eugen, negatif faiz ihtimalinin ise çok düşük olduğunu söylüyor. Geçen hafta piyasalar Fed'in politika faiz oranı beklentisine yönelik bir gösterge olan politika faizi vadeli işlem kontratlarında, Aralık ayından itibaren hafif negatif faiz fiyatlamaya başlamıştı.
Kitco News tarafından ABD 'de hem kamuoyunda hem de Wall Street 'te yapılan bir ankete göre de katılımcıların -sırasıyla- yüzde 67'si ve yüzde 55'i altın fiyatları nda yükseliş öngörüyor.
CITIBANK: NEGATİF FAİZ OLMASA DA YÜKSELİR Citibank'ın araştırma birimi "Fed 'in negatif faiz e geçmesini beklemiyoruz, ama yine de kullanabileceği bir sürü enstrüman var - bu da altında ayı piyasasını destekliyor" diyor. Banka likidite ihtiyacına bağlı altında da düşüşler olabileceğini de ekleyerek "3-6 ay boyunca altının 1600'lerin (dolar) üst seviyelerinde - 1.700 dolarda işlem göreceğini" öngörüyor. Altına yönelik iştahın arttığına ilişkin bir işaret de dünyanın en büyük altın destekli ETF'si SPDR Gold Trust varlıklarının dün yüzde 24 yükselerek 1.083 tona ulaşması oldu.
"ALTIN ŞU ANDA UYUYOR OLABİLİR" Banka ve hedge fonlara uzun yıllar danışmanlık yapan emtia tüccarı Andrew Hecht ise Hecht Emtia Raporu'nda altında alım fırsatı olduğunu yazdı ve uzun vadede fiyatların 2.000 hatta 3.000 doları bile aşabileceğini öngördü. 1.700 doların altına çekilmelerin yeni bir ralliye işaret ettiğini belirten Hecht "Altın şu anda uyuyor olabilir ama 2008'dekine benzer bir seyir olursa çok daha yüksek düzeyler görülebilir" ifadelerini kullandı. "2 BİN DOLAR RALLİSİ SENEYE KALDI" Daha önce altının onsu için 2.000 dolar beklentisi açıklayan Kanada merkezli yatırım bankası TD Securities, önceki gün yayınladığı notta "Altında yükseliş öncesi düşüş riski var" vurgusu yaparak Fed 'in pozitif faiz lere bağlı kalmasının doları güçlendireceğini belirtti ve altın öngörülerini şöyle sıraladı: Q1'de 1.650, Q2'de 1.700, Q3'te 1.725, Q4'te 1.775 ve kademeli olarak artışla 2021 Q4'te 2.000 dolar.
POWELL NEGATİF FAİZ SEÇENEĞİNİ ELEDİ, 'UZUN SÜRE ZAYIF BÜYÜME' DEDİ Fed Başkanı Powell, Beyaz Saray 'ın baskıları sonrası ABD Merkez Bankası 'nın (Fed) negatif faiz enstrümanını deneyebileceği tartışmalarına 'Negatif faizler ABD'de cazip bir politika değil' diyerek nokta koydu. Powell negatif faizle ilişkin soruya "Bir aracın işe yaraması için sözlü yönlendirmelerimiz var ve bunların işe yaradığını görüyoruz. Aynı zamanda negatif faizlerin etkili olmadığına dair kanıtlarımız var. Ancak bu zaten orta vadede sorun yaratabilecek birşey - bankaların ekonomi ye olan etkilerini azaltmak anlamına geliyor bu. Şu an için bu bizim dikkate aldığımız birşey değil. Biz mevcut araç kutumuzu kullanmaya devam edeceğiz" yanıtını verdi.
Dünya gazetesinde yer alan habere göre, Peterson Ekonomi Enstitüsü'nde konuşan Powell ekonomik toparlanma için 'ilave önlemler' alınması gerektiğine vurgu yaparken, ekonomik faliyetlerdeki bozulmanın ölçek ve hızının daha önce görülmemiş düzeyde olduğunu ve uzun bir süre zayıf büyüme görülebileceğini söyledi. Powell'in sonuçlarına değindiği Fed anketine göre ABD 'de 40 bin doların altında yıllık geliri olan hane halklarının yüzde 40'ının işini kaybetti. Uzun süren işsizlik insanların hayatlarını gölgelediğini ve iflaslar da olacağını belirten Powell, "Bu gibi gelişmeler ekonomileri yıllar boyunca baskılayabilir" dedi ve hem Fed'in hem de siyasetçilerin ilave tedbirler alması gerekebileceğini söyledi. Toparlanmanın yoluna girmesinin zaman alabileceğini söyleyen Powell, "Krize politika yanıtı hızlı ve güçlü olsa da Büyük Buhran'dan bu yana en sert daralmanın kontrolden çıkmamasını sağlamak gerektiğini" vurguladı.
"BORÇ/GSYH ORANINI KADEMELİ OLARAK DÜŞÜRMELİYİZ" Fed başkanı siyasetçilerin kontrolünde olan mali politikalara ilişkin de yorum yaptı ve "Ülkenin borç tan daha hızlı büyümesi gerekiyor, uzun vadede kademeli olarak borcun GSYH'ye oranını düşürmemiz gerekiyor" sözleriyle sürdürülebilir bir mali politikanın da önemine dikkat çekti.