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Yıl sonu dolar ne kadar olacak ? Merkez Bankası dolar tahmini ne kadar? Dolar artacak mı düşecek mi? Dolar/TL kurundaki son gelişmeler döviz fiyatlarını takip eden vatandaşlar tarafından sorgulanıyor. Merkez Bankası temmuz ayı beklenti anketine göre, cari yıl sonu için enflasyon beklentisi yüzde 10.22 oldu. Yıl sonu için dolar/TL kuru tahmini açıklandı. Peki dolar artacak mı düşecek mi? İşte merak edilen sorunun yanıtı!
YIL SONU DOLAR NE KADAR OLACAK?
TCMB, reel sektör, finansal sektör temsilcileri ve profesyonellerden oluşan 60 katılımcıyla gerçekleştirdiği "2020 yılı Temmuz ayı Beklenti Anketi"ni yayımladı.
Haziran'da yüzde 0,47 olan Temmuz ayı TÜFE beklentisi, bu anket döneminde yüzde 0,61 oldu. Cari yıl sonu TÜFE beklentisi yüzde 9,54'ten yüzde 10,22'ye çıktı. 12 ay sonrası TÜFE beklentisi yüzde 9,03'ten yüzde 9,33 yükselirken, 24 ay sonrası TÜFE beklentisi yüzde 8,38'de sabit kaldı.
Katılımcıların yıl sonu dolar/TL beklentisi 6,9922'den 7,0188'e çıkarken, 12 ay sonrası dolar/TL beklentisi de 7,2208'den 7,2580'e yükseldi.
Bir önceki anket döneminde 11,6 milyar dolar olan yıl sonu cari işlemler açığı beklentisi, bu dönemde 14,6 milyar dolar oldu. Gelecek yıl cari işlemler açığı beklentisi ise 17,3 milyar dolardan 19,6 milyar dolara çıktı.
Gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla (GSYH) 2020 büyüme beklentisi bir önceki anket dönemine göre değişmeyerek yüzde eksi 1,3'te sabit kalırken, 2021 yılı büyüme beklentisi yüzde 4,6'dan yüzde 4,7'ye yükseldi.
Cari ay sonu TCMB Ağırlıklı Ortalama Fonlama maliyeti beklentisi yüzde yüzde 7,76'dan yüzde 7,74'e düştü.
TCMB bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oranı cari ay ve 12 ay sonrası beklentileri sırasıyla yüzde 8,25 ve yüzde 7,90 olarak kayıtlara geçti.
DOLAR NEDEN YÜKSELİYOR?
Doların yükselmesinde ve düşmesinde pek çok olay etkili oluyor. Örneğin global etkisi olarak koronavirü salgınını gösterebiliriz. Salgının tüm dünyada etkili olması ve birçok sektörün durma noktasına gelmesi gibi etkenler de doların yükselmesinde büyük rol oynuyor. Dolara yatırım yapılır mı sorusunun cevabı olarak da, doların dünyadaki konumu, ABD ekonomisi, global ekonomik trendler, FED kararları... gibi etkenler sürekli değiştiği için uzman görüşü önemlidir. IMF, cari açık, faiz oranları, sektörel gelişmeler, enflasyon ve enflasyon beklentileri, ülke ekonomisi gibi her zaman geçerli olan pek çok durum dolar neden yükseliyor sorusunun cevabı olabilir.
DOLAR HAFTAYA NASIL BAŞLADI?
Dolar/TL kamunun döviz arzının da desteğiyle oldukça dar bantta bir seyir izlemeye devam ederken; bugün piyasalarda yoğun veri gündemi, küresel piyasalar ve iç siyasi gündem takip edilecek.
İçeride Mayıs ayına ilişkin sanayi üretimi ve ödemeler dengesi verileri ile Merkez Bankası beklenti anketi; siyasi gündemde ise AKP MKYK ve MYK toplantıları izlenecek.
Dış piyasalarda ise koronavirüs sonrası hızlı toparlanma öngörüleriyle sert yükselen küresel borsalardaki risk iştahı geçen hafta itibarıyla gücünü koruyamadı. Dış piyasalarda risk iştahının canlı kalıp kalmayacağı ve ABD bilançoları yakından izlenecek.
Bu hafta başlayacak olan ABD bilanço dönemi, salgının zararının ve ekonomik iyileşmenin ne kadar olduğunun anlaşılması için bir gösterge olacak.
Yatırımcılar bu hafta Çin'in açıklayacağı ticaret verisinin yanı sıra Perşembe günü açıklanacak Çin'in ikinci çeyrek büyüme verisini takip edecekler.
Dolar/TL yaklaşık bir aydır oldukça dar bir bantta işlem görüyor. Cuma günü Ayasofya kararı ardından 6.8850'ye kadar yükselse de dolar/TL'deki bu yükseliş de kalıcı olmadı. Dolar/TL saat 0844'te 6.8605/6.8650 seviyesinden işlem görürken; sepet bazında TL 7.2174/7.3229, euro/TL 7.7743/7.7804 seviyesinde bulunuyor.
Goldman Sachs Haziran da dahil edildiğine bu tutarın 60 milyar dolar olduğunu hesaplıyor. Geçtiğimiz yıl da 30-32 milyar doları bulan bu arzın rezervlerdeki negatif etkisinin yavaşlasa da devam ettiği hesaplanıyor. Öte yandan son dönemde bu trende kamu bankalarının açık pozisyonları da ekleniyor.
BORSADA SON DURUM!
Borsa İstanbul'da BIST 100 endeksi, yüzde 2,11 değer kazanarak 117.231,75 puana yükseldi.
Endeks, saat 13.00 itibarıyla önceki kapanışa göre 2.423,18 puan değer kazandı. Cuma günü 114.808,60 puandan kapanan BIST 100 endeksi, güne 1.453,56 puan ve yüzde 1,27 değer kazanarak 116.262,12 puandan başladı. Endeks, günün ilk yarısında en düşük 116.125,50, en yüksek 117.290,60 puanı gördü.
Günün ilk yarısında sanayi endeksi yüzde 2,88, teknoloji endeksi yüzde 2,40, hizmetler endeksi yüzde 2,05 ve mali endeks 2,03 değer kazandı.
Önceki kapanışa göre günün ilk yarısında BIST 100 endeksine dahil hisselerin tamamı değer kazandı. En çok işlem gören hisse senetleri Emlak Konut GYO, Türk Hava Yolları, Trabzonspor, Odaş Elektrik ve Trakya Cam oldu.
Borsa İstanbul Tahvil ve Bono Piyasası Kesin Alım Satım Pazarı'nda işlem gören gösterge kağıdı 4 Mayıs 2022 vadeli tahvilin, bugün valörlü işlemlerinin saat 13.00 itibarıyla basit getirisi yüzde 9,89, bileşik getirisi yüzde 10,14 seviyelerinde bulunuyor.
Uluslararası piyasalarda saat 13.00 itibarıyla avro/dolar paritesi 1,1326, sterlin/dolar paritesi 1,2616 ve dolar/yen paritesi 107,08 düzeyinde seyrediyor.
İstanbul serbest piyasada dolar 6,8660 liradan, avro 7,7760 liradan satılıyor.
Altının onsu ise uluslararası piyasalarda 1.809,47 dolardan, Londra Brent tipi ham petrolün varil fiyatı yüzde 1,32 azalışla 42,75 dolardan işlem görüyor.