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Son dakika: FETÖ'nün kanlı darbe girişiminin ekonomiye dolaylı maliyeti 350 milyar doları buldu Fetullahçı Terör Örgütü'nün (FETÖ) 15 Temmuz'daki hain darbe girişimi sonrası hızla uygulamaya alınan finansal önlemler sayesinde Türk ekonomisi bu şoku kısa sürede atlatsa da darbe girişiminin ekonomiye faturası ağır oldu. İstanbul Üniversitesi Öğretim Üyesi Prof. Dr. Sefer Şener, 15 Temmuz hain FETÖ darbe teşebbüsünün doğrudan kişi başı maliyetinin yaklaşık 2 bin dolara tekabül ettiğini belirterek, "Ülke ekonomisine dolaylı maliyeti ise 350 milyar doları bulmuştur." dedi. takvim.com.tr Giriş Tarihi : 14 Temmuz 2020 , 15:31 Güncelleme Tarihi : 14 Temmuz 2020 , 15:31
4 yıl önce yaşanan FETÖ'nün hain darbe girişimi sonrası piyasalar bir anda artan risk algısı sebebiyle zorlu bir döneme girmişti. Ülkede yaşanan olağanüstü durum sebebiyle artan riskler, ekonomik göstergeleri negatif yönde etkilemiş, bunun ilk emareleri de döviz kuru üzerinde görülmüştü.
14 Temmuz 2016'da günü 2,8778'den kapatan dolar/TL, 15 Temmuz'daki FETÖ'nün hain darbe girişiminin basına yansıması sonucu yurt dışı piyasalarda satış ağırlıklı bir seyir izleyerek yüzde 5,1'lik artışla 3,0250 seviyesine yükselmişti.
Araya giren hafta sonu sebebiyle uluslararası piyasaların kapalı olması ve darbe girişiminin kısa sürede bastırılması, göstergelerin daha da kötüleşmesini engelleyen unsurlar olmuştu.
Hain FETÖ darbe girişiminin büyük oranda bastırıldığı pazartesi günü, BIST 100 endeksi 15 Temmuz cuma günkü kapanışa göre günü yüzde 7,08 düşüşle 76.957,61 puandan günü tamamlamıştı. Haftanın devamında da düşüş eğilimini sürdüren endeks, haftayı yüzde 13,39'luk değer kaybıyla kapatmıştı.
DARBE GİRİŞİMİ EKONOMİNİN HER ALANINI ETKİLEDİ
Haziranda 6 aylık bir yükseliş trendinin ardından 107,4 seviyesine yükselen sanayi üretim endeksi, temmuzda 20 puandan fazla gerileyerek 86,9 seviyesine inmişti.
İhracat ve ithalat tarafı da darbe girişiminden olumsuz yönde etkilenmiş, ticari aktivitede önemli bir düşüş gözlemlenmişti. İhracat temmuzda bir önceki yılın aynı dönemine göre yüzde 11,5 azalmış, yavaşlayan tüketim harcamalarıyla birlikte ithalat da temmuzda bir önceki yılın aynı ayına göre yüzde 19,4 düşmüştü.
Yılın ilk 2 çeyreğinde sırasıyla yüzde 4,5 ve yüzde 4,7'lik büyüme oranını yakalayan Türk ekonomisi, darbe girişiminin yaşandığı üçüncü çeyrekte mevsimsellikten arındırılmış endekse göre yüzde 0,2 daralmıştı.
15 Temmuz sonrası piyasalarda oluşan tedirginliğin asgari seviyeye indirilmesi için ekonomi yönetimi ve regülatörlerin aldığı birçok önlem sayesinde darbe girişiminin ekonomiye maliyeti minimuma indirilmeye çalışılmıştı.
Alınan önlemler sayesinde ekonominin kısa sürede eski seviyelere ulaşılması sağlanırken, BIST 100 endeksinin darbe öncesi seviyelere yükselmesi 6 ay sürmüştü. Sonrasında bir yıl içinde yaklaşık yüzde 50 yükselen BIST 100 endeksi, Ocak 2018'de 120 bin seviyesini görmüştü.
15 TEMMUZ'UN TÜRKİYE'YE MALİYETİ 350 MİLYAR DOLAR
İstanbul Üniversitesi Öğretim Üyesi Prof. Dr. Sefer Şener, AA muhabirine yaptığı açıklamada, 15 Temmuz hain FETÖ darbe girişiminin aynı zamanda Türk ekonomisine karşı da bir darbe olduğunu ifade etti.
Hain FETÖ darbe girişiminin ülke ekonomisine doğrudan maliyetinin yaklaşık 158 milyar dolar olduğuna dikkati çeken Şener, "Darbe girişiminin doğrudan kişi başı maliyeti yaklaşık 2 bin dolara tekabül ediyor. Ülke ekonomisine dolaylı maliyeti ise 350 milyar doları bulmuştur." değerlendirmesinde bulundu.
Şener, darbe girişimiyle birlikte kredi derecelendirme kuruluşlarının hızlıca not indirimine gittiklerini ancak darbe sonrası ekonomide yaşanan hızlı toparlanma sayesinde bu indirimlerin gerekli olmadığını savundu.
Darbe girişimi sebebiyle zarar gören ekonomik dinamiklerin iyileştirilmesi için yoğun çaba sarf eden hükümetin ayrıca çeşitli konularda mücadele etmek zorunda kaldığını belirten Şener, "Darbe girişiminden sonra ekonomiye dönük yurt dışı kaynaklı manipülatif ataklar da durdurulmaya çalışılmıştır. 2018'de yaşanan kur manipülasyonunu da bu bağlamda değerlendirmek doğru bir yaklaşım olacaktır." ifadelerini kullandı.
Şener, darbe girişimi sonrası süreçte yaşananlarla birlikte Türkiye'ye doğrudan yabancı sermaye girişlerinde gözle görülür bir yavaşlama yaşandığını, 2016'da 16 milyar dolar olan bu tutarın 2019'da 8,6 milyar dolara kadar gerilediğine dikkati çekti.
15 Temmuz öncesinde yüzde 8 seviyesinde bulunan politika faizinin darbe girişimiyle birlikte ciddi şekilde yükseldiğini bildiren Şener, "Darbe girişiminin negatif etkileriyle birlikte politika faizi 2018'de yüzde 24'lere kadar çıktı. Hükümetin ve TCMB'nin yoğun çabalarıyla bu oran tekrar tek haneli rakamlara gelse de aradan geçen süre zarfında, Türkiye önemli bir bedel ödemek zorunda kalmıştır." değerlendirmesinde bulundu.