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"2020'nin mucizesi ekonomide pozitif büyümedir" Sabah Gazetesi yazarı Kerem Alkin, Türkiye'nin pandemi yılı olan 2020'de büyüyen nadir ülkelerden bir tanesi olmayı başarmasına ilişkin çarpıcı bir yazı kaleme aldı. Alkin, yazısında, "2020'nin mucizesi 'Pozitif Büyüme'dir. Bu mucizeyi gerçekleştirmek adına, Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'ın vizyoner liderliğiyle, Ekonomi Yönetimi'nin geçtiğimiz mart ayı sonundan itibaren seferber ettiği tüm para-maliye-direkt kontrol politikaları setinin bir başarısıdır." ifadelerine yer verdi. takvim.com.tr Giriş Tarihi : 01 Mart 2021 , 15:15 Güncelleme Tarihi : 01 Mart 2021 , 15:22
Sabah Gazetesi yazarı Kerem Alkin'in dikkat çeken köşe yazısı şöyle: Bu satırları okuduğunuz an itibariyle, TÜİK tarafından ya 2020 yılı GSYH verileri açıklanmış veya açıklanmasına kısa bir süre kalmış olacak. 2020'nin bütünü için reel büyüme hızı oranı tahminim, yüzde 70 olasılıkla, yüzde 2,485. Tahminimin dip noktası olan yüzde 2,33, 2020'nin son çeyreğinde Türkiye Ekonomisi'nin yüzde 8,04 oranında büyüdüğümüz tahminime dayanıyor. Tahminimin tepe noktası olan yüzde 2,66 ise son çeyrekte yüzde 10,49 oranında büyüdüğümüz tahminime.
Ancak, işin özünü kaçırmayalım: 2020'nin mucizesi 'Pozitif Büyüme'dir. Bu mucizeyi gerçekleştirmek adına, Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'ın vizyoner liderliğiyle, Ekonomi Yönetimi'nin geçtiğimiz mart ayı sonundan itibaren seferber ettiği tüm para-maliye-direkt kontrol politikaları setinin bir başarısıdır. Bu başarıyı, 2008 yılının eylül ayının ikinci yarısında patlak veren ve 2009'da tüm dünya ekonomisinin ve küresel finans sisteminin derin yara almasına sebep olan Küresel Finans Krizi sürecinde yaşananlarla karşılaştırdığımızda, 2009 yılının büyüme hedefi yüzde 5 büyüme iken, yüzde -4,8 ile yılı tamamlayabilmiş bir Türkiye'nin, 2008 finans krizinden 3 kat daha yüksek bir küresel belirsizliğe sebep olmuş 'Kovid-19' küresel virüs salgınının yaşandığı 2020 yılını, yüzde 5 büyüme hedefine göre, bu defa yüzde 2,5 büyüme ile tamamlıyor olması gerçek bir 'başarı öykü'südür. Üstelik de, bu başarının bir 'kamu mali disiplini' başarısı ve TCMB'nin 1 kuruş karşılıksız TL basmadığı koşullarda yakalamış olmanın değeri tartışılmaz bile.
Hadi, 2009'la bir karşılaştırma yapalım. 2009 yılı bütçe açığı hedefi -15,54 milyar TL'dir. Yıl sonu gerçekleşmesi ise -52,76 milyar TL. 3,4 kat sapma. Bu nedenle, yıl başında bütçe açığı/GSYH oranı yüzde -1,4 olarak hedeflenmişken, gerçekleşme yüzde -5,5 olmuştur. Bütçe gelirleri 244 milyar TL hedeflenmişken, 215 milyar TL'de kalmıştır. 2020'de ise, bütçe açığı hedefi 139 milyar TL iken, 173 milyar TL olarak gerçekleşmiştir. 'Kovid-19' gibi 100 yılda bir görülen ağır bir küresel krize rağmen, bütçe açığındaki sapma yüzde 24.5'dir. Bu sayede, yıl başında bütçe açığı/GSYH oranı hedefi yüzde -2,9 iken, yüzde -3,6 olarak gerçekleşti. Bu bir 'mali disiplin' başarısıdır. Giderler 1 trilyon 96 milyar hedeflenmişken, 1 trilyon 202 milyar TL olarak gerçekleşti. Çünkü, toplam gelirler 957 milyar TL hedeflenmiş iken, 1 trilyon 29 milyar TL'ye, vergi gelirleri ise 785 milyar TL iken, 833 milyar TL'ye ulaştı. Üstelik, gelir vergisi 182 milyar TL hedeflenmiş iken, 159 milyar TL'de kalmış olmasına rağmen. Çünkü, Ekonomi Yönetimi, reel sektörün ve istihdamın çökmesine, üretim ve ihracatın durma noktasına gelmesine izin vermeyerek, 'pozitif büyüme' başarısı ile ekonominin çarklarının katma değer ve vergi üretmesini sağladı. YAZININ TAMAMI İÇİN TIKLAYIN