Türkiye, yeni tip koronavirüs (Kovid-19) salgınının olumsuz etkilerine rağmen geçen yıl büyüme gösteren sayılı ülkelerden olurken, ülke ekonomisine ilişkin 2021 yılı büyüme tahminlerinde de revizyonlar art arda geldi.
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Türkiye, yeni tip koronavirüs (Kovid-19) salgınının olumsuz etkilerine rağmen geçen yıl büyüme gösteren sayılı ülkelerden olurken, ülke ekonomisine ilişkin 2021 yılı büyüme tahminlerinde de revizyonlar art arda geldi.
Kovid-19 salgınının küresel ekonomiyi sert şekilde vurduğu 2020'de Türkiye ekonomisi beklentilerin aksine gösterdiği yüzde 1,8'lik büyüme performansıyla dikkati çekti.
BÜYÜME PERFORMANSININ İVME KAZANARAK DEVAM ETMESİ BEKLENİYOR
Ekonomistler, ülkenin geçen yılki büyüme performansının ivme kazanarak bu yıl da devam etmesini beklerken, uluslararası ekonomi ve finansın önde gelen kuruluşları Türk ekonomisine ilişkin tahminlerinde art arda revizyona gitti.
Kovid-19 salgınında tüm dünyada görülen yeni dalga ve vaka artışları tedirginliğe sebep olurken, aşılama çalışmalarının 2021 yılına daha pozitif bakmayı sağladığını belirten ekonomistler, Türkiye'nin ilk çeyrekte ihracatının 2020'nin ilk çeyreğine göre yüzde 17,3 artışla 50 milyar 23 milyon dolar olarak çıkmasının büyümenin ivmeleneceğine işaret ettiğini vurguluyor.
Türkiye ekonomisinin 2020'nin son çeyreğinde yüzde 5,9'luk büyüme performansı yakalamasının ardından ilk revizyon Uluslararası Para Fonu'nda (IMF) geldi.
Daha önce Türk ekonomisinin bu yıl yüzde 5 büyüyeceği tahmininde bulunan IMF, bu tahminini ocak ayında yüzde 6'ya yükseltti.
IMF ile başlayan revizyonlar, Moody's, Fitch, Standard&Poor's (S&P), Birleşmiş Milletler Ticaret ve Kalkınma Konferansı (UNCTAD), Ekonomik İşbirliği ve Kalkınma Örgütü'nün (OECD) ve Dünya Bankası gibi ekonominin önde gelen kuruluşlarının güncellemeleriyle devam etti.
BİRÇOK KURULUŞ TAHMİNLERİNİ OLUMLU YÖNDE GÜNCELLEDİ
Uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşlarından Moody's, Türkiye'nin bu yıla ilişkin büyüme tahminin şubat ayında yüzde 3,5'ten 4'e çıkarırken, 2022 yılına ilişkin büyüme öngörüsünü yüzde 4'ten 5'e yükseltti.
Moody's gibi Türk ekonomisine ilişkin büyüme tahminini olumlu yönde güncelleyen kredi derecelendirme kuruluşlarından bir diğeri Fitch oldu.
Fitch, Türkiye'ye ilişkin 2021 yılı büyüme tahminini yüzde 3,5'ten 6,7'ye, 2022 yılı büyüme tahminini ise yüzde 4,5'ten 4,7'ye yükseltti. Fitch, güçlü parasal destek ve kredilerin, 2020 yılında Türk ekonomisinin direncini desteklediği belirtildi.
S&P ise Türkiye ekonomisine ilişkin 2021 yılı büyüme tahminini yüzde 4,5'ten 3,6'ya çekerken, ekonominin 2022'de yüzde 3,5 büyüyeceğini öngördü.
OECD, ekonomik görünüme ilişkin mart ayında yayımladığı ara raporda, Türk ekonomisine yönelik büyüme beklentisini yüzde 2,9'dan 5,9'a çıkardı ve daha önce 2022'de yüzde 3,2 büyüyeceğini tahmin ettiği Türk ekonomisinin gelecek y��la ilişkin büyüme beklentisini yüzde 3 olarak belirledi.
DÜNYA BANKASI TAHMİNLERİNİ YÜKSELTTİ
UNCTAD da mart ayında yayımlanan küresel ticaret ve kalkınmanın gidişatına ilişkin raporunda, Türkiye'ye ilişkin 2021 büyüme beklentisini yüzde 2,4'ten 4'e çıkardı. UNCTAD, ülke ekonomisine ilişkin 2022 yılı büyüme tahmini ise yüzde 4'te bıraktı.
Son olarak Dünya Bankası, ekonomiye yönelik tahminlerinde revizyona giderek 2021 yılı büyüme tahminini yüzde 4,5'ten 5'e çıkardı.
Dünya Bankası, ocak ayında yayımladığı Küresel Ekonomik Beklentiler Raporu'nda, 2021 büyüme beklentisini yüzde 5'ten 4,5'e çekmişti. Böylece Dünya Bankası, 2021 beklentisini tekrar yüzde 5'e çıkarmış oldu.
Büyüme performansına ilişkin 2022 tahminini yüzde 5'ten 4,5'e çeken Dünya Bankası, Türk ekonomisinin 2023'te yüzde 4,5 büyüyeceğini öngördü.
IMF'nin 6 Nisan'da yayımlayacağı Dünya Ekonomik Görünüm Raporu ile ekonomik büyüme tahminlerinin yukarı yönlü revize edilmesi de bekleniyor.