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Aşırı fiyat artışlarının önüne geçme, faiz lobileri ile mücadelede yeni dönem başlıyor. Türkiye 'ye karşı yürütülen operasyona karşı Başkan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 'ın 'Ekonomik Kurtuluş Savaşı'nı kazanacağız' açıklamasının ardından yapılan çalışmalara ulaşıldı.
ÇEVİK BİR YÖNETİM Küresel çapta yaşanan arz daralması, tedarik sorunları, teknoloji ve sermaye tekelleşmesi zorluklarını dikkate alarak kırılgan bir ekonomik yapı yerine çevik ekonomik yapıya uygun politikalar yürütülecek. Finansal şoklara karşı kararlı bir duruş sergilenecek. Ekonominin çok yönlü ve rekabetçi üretim gücü artıracak. Sabah'ta yer alan habere göre, cari açığı azaltmak ve yerli üreticilerin ithal üreticiler yerine birbirleri ile etkileşimini artırmak için irade gösterilecek. Yeni yol haritasıyla klasik ekonomi öğretisinin gelişmiş ekonomileri örnek göstererek modellediği ve uzun bir süreci kapsayan kalkınma söylemine alternatif olarak inovasyon ve teknolojide büyük sıçrama stratejisi uygulanacak. Türkiye 'de örneklerini savunma sanayi, otomotiv ve hizmet sektörlerinde başarıyla sergilenen bu strateji tüm sektörlerde yaygınlaştırılacak.
İHRACATA DESTEK Geçmiş 10 yılda 160- 180 milyar dolar bandında bulunan ihracat rakamının bu yıl sonunda 200 milyar doları aşarak Cumhuriyet tarihi rekorunu kırması bekleniyor. Yatırımlar sonucu 2011-2020 döneminde Türkiye limanlarından yüklenen yük miktarı 162 milyon tondan 229 milyon tona, boşaltılan yükler ise 202 milyon tondan 267 milyon tona ulaştı. İhracatın ithalatı karşılama oranı yüzde 93.4 seviyesine ulaşarak Cumhuriyet tarihinin en yüksek seviyesine çıktı. Cumhuriyet tarihinde ilk kez Türkiye'nin dünya ihracatından aldığı pay yüzde 1'in üzerine çıktı. Bankacılık sektöründe yerli ve yabancı bankalar net döviz fazlası veren konumda bulunuyor. Savunma sanayinde dışa bağımlılık azaltıldı.
Resmi İlandır
YENİ EKONOMİNİN YOL HARİTASI ŞEKİLLENDİ Dinamik ekonomik yapıya uygun politikalar yürütülecek. Finansal şoklara karşı kararlı bir duruş sergilenecek. Üretim ve ihracata öncelik verilecek. Genç nüfusun dinamizminden yararlanarak ekonominin çok yönlü ve rekabetçi üretim gücü arttırılacak. Cari açığı azaltmak ve yerli üretici lerin ithal üreticiler yerine birbir leri ile etkileşimi arttırılacak. İnovasyon ve teknolojide büyük sıçrama stratejisi uygulanacak.
FAİZ İNDİRİMİNDE KARARLILIK MESAJI Öte yandan Başkan Erdoğan önceki gün AK Parti Genel Merkezi'nde sürpriz bir toplantı yaptı. AK Parti MYK üyelerinin katıldığı toplantıda Ekonomi ve Döviz kurundaki artış değerlendirildi. Edinilen bilgiye göre, toplantıda Faiz indiriminde kararlılık vurgusu yapıldığı, izlenecek yol haritasıyla yüksek kurun da önüne geçileceği belirtildi. Toplantıda faiz düşürmede kararlılık vurgusu yapıldığı öğrenilirken, 3-4 ay içerisinde bu durumun çözüleceği konuşuldu. Hürriyet'te yer alan habere göre, dolar kurundaki ani artışın vatandaşa iyi anlatılması gerektiği vurgusu yapıldı. Dolar kurundaki ani artışın bir operasyon olduğu da belirtilen toplantıda, soğukkanlı yaklaşımdan yana olunması gerektiği de kaydedildi. Bu süreçte, faizin düşmeye devam etmesi nedeniyle alım ve satımın hızlanacağı ve bu sayede yatırımların artacağı da vurgulanan konular arasında yer aldı.
ÇOK YÖNLÜ ÜRETİMDE TÜRKİYE SIRA ATLADI Harvard Growth Lab tarafından hesaplanan ve ülkelerin endüstriyel kapasiteleri ile üretim uzmanlığı (knowhow) seviyelerini gösteren "The Atlas of Economic Complexity" verilerine göre Türkiye 'nin ekonomik komplekslik sıralamasındaki yeri yükseldi. 2000'de 56'ncı iken, 2019'a 40'ıncı sıraya çıkıldı. DOĞALGAZ KEŞİFLERİ ENERJİ İTHALATINA ÇÖZÜM BULACAK Karadeniz ve Akdeniz'deki doğalgaz arama çalışmaları Türkiye'nin üretim alanında önemli gider kalemlerinden biri olan enerji ithalatına çözüm sağlayacak. Karadeniz'de keşfedilen toplamda 540 milyar metreküplük doğalgaz Türkiye'nin yüzde 30'luk ihtiyacını karşılayacak. Böylece, enerji ithalatının ve enerji bağımlılığının azaltılmasına yönelik önemli bir adım atılmış olacak. KARANLIK SENARYOLARA İZİN VERMEYECEĞİZ Cumhurbaşkanı Yardımcısı Fuat Oktay ve AK Parti Genel Başkan Yardımcısı Hayati Yazıcı, Türkiye'yi daha güçlü bir geleceğe kavuşturma adına verilen mücadelenin süreceğini vurguladı. Oktay, sosyal medya hesabından yaptığı paylaşımda, "Türkiye için kurguladıkları karanlık senaryolara asla izin vermeyeceğiz" ifadelerini kullandı.
TÜRKİYE KUR VE FAİZE HAPSEDİLEMEZ İstanbul Ticaret Odası (İTO) Başkanı Şekib Avdagiç, Türkiye ekonomisinin kurfaiz gibi iki parametreye hapsedilmesine müsaade etmeyeceklerini belirterek, "Hedefi faiz ve kur üzerinden hesap görmek olanlara imkân vermemeliyiz" diye konuştu. YABANCI EKONOMİSTLERDEN GÜVEN MESAJI Salgın döneminde uyguladığı örnek kısmi kapanma kararları ve aldığı tedbirlerle dünyadan pozitif ayrışan Türkiye'nin son dönemde spekülatif kur ataklarıyla algı operasyonlarına maruz kaldığı yabancı ekonomistlerin de dikkatini çekti.
9.5 TL OLMALI Uluslararası Finans Enstitüsü Başekonomisti Robin Brooks, sosyal medya hesabından yaptığı grafikli paylaşımda, TL'ye karşı nasıl bir manipülasyon yapıldığını gözler önüne serdi. Brooks, doların adil değerinin 9.50 TL olduğunu söyledi. Duayen yatırımcı Mark Mobius ise, kur kriziyle karşı karşıya kalan tek ülkenin Türkiye olmayabileceği yorumunu yaptı. Syz Group'un baş yatırım sorumlusu İsviçre kökenli ekonomist Charles-Henry Monchau ise Türkiye'nin temellerinin çok güçlü olduğunu söyledi.
İNADINA GÜVEN, İNADINA YATIRIM, İNADINA ÜRETİM Türkiye ekonomisinin itici gücü haline gelen reel sektör, kasım ayında yaşanan kur atağına prim vermedi. Türkiye 'yi faiz artırımına ve erken seçime zorlama amacı taşıyan spekülatif kur saldırısının yaşandığı kasım ayında reel sektörün ekonomiye güveninde artış olurken, kapasite kullanım oranı ve yatırım eğilimi de güçlendi.
KAPASİTE KULLAMI ARTTI Merkez Bankası tarafından dün açıklanan verilere göre, imalat sanayisinde kapasite kullanım oranı, kasım ayında 0.1 puan artarak yüzde 78.1 ile 3.5 yılın en yüksek seviyesinde kalmaya devam etti. İmalat sanayisinde faaliyet gösteren 1.732 iş yeri tarafından kasım ayı İktisadi Yönelim Anketi'ne verilen yanıtların toplulaştırılarak değerlendirildiği araştırmaya göre mevsimsel etkilerden arındırılmış kapasite kullanım oranı da 0.1 puan artışla yüzde 77.6'ya yükseldi. Kapasite kullanımında artış, kriz lobisinin Türkiye'de çarkların durduğu yönündeki mesnetsiz iddiasını da çöpe attı. Öte yandan mevsimsellikten arındırılmış reel kesim güven endeksi ise kasımda 0.7 puan artarak 112.0 ile 4 ayın en yüksek seviyesine ulaştı.
YATIRIM İŞTAHI GÜÇLÜ TCMB tarafından imalat sanayinde faaliyet gösteren 1.747 iş yerinin yanıtlarından derlenen 2021 yılı güz dönemine ilişkin Yatırım Eğilimi İstatistikleri yayımlandı. İmalat sanayi genelinde 2021 ve 2022'de yatırım harcamalarının bir önceki yıla göre artması beklenirken, talep faktörünün yatırımları artırıcı yönde etkileyen en önemli unsur olduğu gözlendi.