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Avrupa bu kış halihazırda doğalgaz depolarının boşalmasından ve fiyat artışından dolayı sorunlar yaşarken Rusya 'nın Ukrayna'yı işgali ve AB'nin Moskova'ya uyguladığı ekonomi k yaptırımların ardından enerji konusunda çözüm arayışı başladı.
Azerbaycan başta olmak üzere başka doğalgaz boru hatları ve sıvılaştırılmış doğalgaz (LNG) ilk akla gelen çözümler. Onun ardından nükleer ve yenilenebilir enerji, hidroelektrik santraller ve kömür geliyor.
Nükleer enerji seçeneği Almanya, İngiltere, Belçika ve Fransa'da her geçen gün düşerken kömür santrallerinin çoğu iklim hedefleri konusundaki baskı nedeniyle kapatılmıştı.
LNG ÖNEM KAZANDI BBC Türkçe'nin haberine göre; yaptırımlar Rusya 'dan Avrupa 'ya gaz akışı sağlanan Yamal-Europe, Kuzey Akım 1 ve TürkAkım gibi boru hatlarını da etkileyebilir.
Bir yandan doğalgaz teminatının durabileceğini düşünen enerji şirketleri, işgalin başladığı gün Rusya'dan siparişlerini artırdı.
Cuma gecesi ve Cumartesi, son iki aydır durdurulmuş olan ve Belarus ile Polonya topraklarından giden Yamal-Europe boru hattı üzerinden Almanya'ya ekstra gaz gönderildi.
Uluslararası Enerji Ajansı (IEA) verilerine göre, Belarus topraklarından geçen Yamal-Europe boru hattından Almanya'ya en son 20 Aralık 2021'de gaz teslimatı olmuştu.
Kuzey Akım 2'yi durdurma kararı alan Almanya, Rusya'dan boru hatları ile gelen doğalgazın eksikliğini LNG ile doldurmaya yöneleceğini açıkladı.
ALMANYA LNG TERMİNALİ İNŞASINA BAŞLAYACAK Bloomberg'in haberine göre, Pazar günü Almanya parlamentosunda konuşan Almanya Başbakanı Olaf Scholz son dönemde yaşanan olaylar sonrasında, uygulanacak enerji politikasının yalnızca ekonomi ve iklim için değil aynı zamanda güvenlik bakımından da kritik olduğunu belirtti.
Enerji bağımlılığını azaltmak için değişime gideceklerini söyledi. LNG terminali inşasına başlayacağını, elektrik tesisi için kömür rezervi oluşturacağını ve enerji şirketlerini kıştan önce gaz depolamaya zorlamayı planladığını açıklayan Almanya'nın gaz ihtiyacının yüzde 50'den fazlası Rusya 'dan temin ediliyor.
ABD EN BÜYÜK LNG TEDARİKÇİSİ Boru hatlarıyla Avrupa 'ya ulaşan doğalgaz akışının azalması da LNG ile telafi edilmeye başlanmıştı. Ocak ayında Avrupa ve İngiltere'ye LNG ithalatı, geçen yılın neredeyse üç katına çıkarak 13 milyar metreküple tüm zamanların en yüksek seviyelerine ulaştı. Bu rakamlar, o ay Rusya 'dan Avrupa'ya gaz akışının yaklaşık yüzde 70 fazlasıydı.
Kış sezonu başladığından beri ABD, AB ve İngiltere'ye ithal edilen ek LNG'nin yarıdan fazlasını karşıladı. ABD'nin Avrupa'ya LNG ihracatı, 2021'in son çeyreğinde geçen yılın toplamından yüzde 40 daha fazla oldu.
LNG her ne kadar önemli bir alternatif olarak görülse de küresel LNG tedarikçilerinin üretim ve taşıma kapasitesi sınırlı. LNG altyapısı kurmak, milyarlarca dolarlık harcamaya mal olup uzun yıllar alabilir.
Ayrıca bazı firmalar için Rusya doğalgazından vazgeçmek o kadar kolay değil. Bloomberg'in haberine göre bazı elektrik üreticileri, enerji kaynaklarını Rusya'dan almayı durduracağını açıkladı.
Örneğin Danimarka şirketi Orsted Pazar günü, Rus kömür ve biyoyakıt almayı durdurduğunu, Rus firmalarıyla yeni kontrat yapmayacağını açıkladı.
Ancak doğalgazla ilgili herhangi bir kararı, bireysel şirketler yerine AB'nin ve ülkelerin siyasi seviyede alması gerektiğini belirtti.
AB enerji bakanları hafta başında enerji güvencesiyle ilgili konuşmak üzere buluştu. Avrupa'nın enerji bakımından bağımlılığının azaltılması ve alternatifler üzerine konuşuldu.
DEPOLARDAKİ GAZ MİKTARI AZALMIŞTI Avrupa 'nın ve dolaylı olarak İngiltere'nin Rusya doğalgaz ına olan bağımlılığı geçtiğimiz 10 yılda arttı. IEA verilerine göre, Rusya 2009 yılında Avrupa'nın doğalgaz ihtiyacının yüzde 25'ini karşılarken 2021 yılında bu rakam yüzde 32'ye çıktı. Ancak geçen yıldan bu yana Rusya Avrupa'ya gönderdiği gaz miktarını azaltmaya başladı.
Bu dönemde Rusya Devlet Başkanı Putin, Avrupa'ya gazı kasten kısmakla suçlanmıştı. Fakat kendisi, yaşanan sıkıntının Avrupa'nın enerji sistemindeki 'sistematik hatalardan' kaynaklandığını belirtti.
Rusya devletinin sahibi olduğu Gazprom ise yakın dönemde, Avrupalı alıcılar talep etmediği için gaz akışında eksiklik yaşandığını söylemişti.
Avrupa depolarındaki doğalgaz miktarı bu yıl, son beş yıllık ortalamanın yüzde 30 altında kaldı. Rusya'dan tedarikin azalması, iklim koşulları ve depoların boşalması hem fiyatları hem de enerji ihtiyacını artırdı.
UKRAYNA'NIN ÖNEMİ AZALDI Ukrayna'nın transit ülke olarak önemi ise Rus gazını doğrudan Avrupa ile İngiltere'ye taşıyan ve 2011 yılından bu yana kullanılan Kuzey Akım 1 doğalgaz boru hattıyla birlikte 2009'dan beri yüzde 60'tan fazla azaldı. Ancak Ukrayna yine de Rusya gazının Avrupa'ya ulaşmasında önemli bir konumda yer alıyor.
Ukrayna'dan geçen boru hattıyla, Slovakya'ya Aralık ayında günlük 80 milyon metreküp olan ortalama gaz akışı, 2022'nin ilk haftalarında günlük 36 milyon metreküp civarına düştü.
Doğalgaza daha çok ihtiyaç duyulan kış aylarında Avrupa'ya Cezayir, Azerbaycan ve Norveç dahil diğer üreticilerden gelen gaz miktarı önceki yıla kıyasla artış gösterdi.
Azerbaycan Avrupa'ya gaz göndermeye geçen yıl başladı. Trans Adriyatik Boru Hattı (TAP) Azerbaycan'dan sonra Gürcistan, Türkiye ve Yunanistan'dan sonra İtalya'ya ulaşıyor.
Diğer bir alternatif de yine Azerbaycan'dan Gürcistan, Türkiye, Yunanistan ve Arnavutluk üzerinden geçerek İtalya'ya ulaşan Trans Anadolu Doğal Gaz Boru Hattı Projesi (TANAP).
Almanya Başbakanı Scholz geçtiğimiz hafta Rusya'nın Ukrayna topraklarına girmesiyle beraber Kuzey Akım 2 doğal gaz hattı projesinin iptal olduğunu açıkladı.
Halihazırda doğalgaz Rusya'dan Ukrayna ve Polonya toprakları üzerinden geçerek Avrupa'ya ulaşırken Kuzey Akım 2 boru hattı diğer ülkeleri aradan çıkarıyordu. Doğalgaz doğrudan Baltık denizinin altından geçerek Almanya'ya gelecekti.
İnşaatı tamamlanan ancak Almanya'dan henüz onay alamadığı için kullanımına başlanmayan boru hattına 11 milyar dolar harcandı. Bunun yarısını Gazprom, diğer yarısını da Shell ve ENGIE gibi Batılı enerji firmaları karşıladı.
Kuzey Akım 2'nin durdurulmasının, Rusya 'ya uygulanan bir yaptırım olmakla birlikte, Avrupa 'yı da gaz ihtiyacının karşılanması konusunda zor durumda bırakacağı düşünülüyor.
Öte yandan Polonya, Rusya'ya karşı yaptırımlar kapsamında Kuzey Akım 1 doğalgaz boru hattını kapatma çağrısında bulunmuştu. Doğrudan Rusya'dan Almanya'ya giden bu hat da Polonya gibi transit ülkelerin önemini azaltmıştı.
Ancak hattın yüzde 15 pay sahibi olan, Avrupa'nın en büyük enerji operatörlerinden Alman şirketi EON, bunun Kuzey Akım 2'den farklı bir konu olduğunu söyleyerek kapatma talebini reddetti.
AVRUPA'NIN GAZ STOĞU BİTTİ Rus enerji şirketi Gazprom, yaz döneminde Avrupa 'daki yer altı depolama tesislerine doldurulan gazın tümüyle tüketildiğini açıkladı.
Gazprom'dan yapılan yazılı açıklamada, Avrupa'daki depolama tesislerindeki gazın hızla azaldığı belirtildi.
Açıklamada, "Gas Infrastructure Europe verilerine göre, Avrupa'daki yer altı depolama tesislerindeki doğal gazın yüzde 21,5'i kaldı. Yaz döneminde Avrupa'daki yer altı depolama tesislerine doldurulan gaz ise tümüyle tüketildi." ifadesine yer verildi.
Söz konusu durumun zorluklara sebep olduğuna işaret edilen açıklamada, "Bu, depolama tesislerinin teknolojik yeterlilikleriyle sınırlanan günlük limitleri göz önüne alındığında çok ciddi bir zorluktur. Ayrıca, Avrupa pazarındaki durum büyüyen Asya piyasalarındaki durumla yakından ilişkilidir." değerlendirmesinde bulunuldu.
Öte yandan, Gazprom'un Temsilcisi Sergey Kupriyanov, gazetecilere yaptığı açıklamada Ukrayna üzerinden Avrupa'ya Rus gazı sevkiyatının günlük ortalama 100 milyon metreküple normal seyrinde olduğunu söyledi.