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Küresel piyasalarda 'Yatırım Gurusu' olarak bilinen Mark Mobius , Rusya Ukrayna Savaş ı ile körüklenen enerji fiyatları ve risk süreçleri hakkında önemli değerlendirmelerde bulundu. Mobius, "Rusya Ukrayna krizi Türkiye gibi ülkelerin yatırım değeri açısından öne çıkmasına sebep olacak" diye konuştu.
NTV'de Rusya Ukrayna Savaş ı temalı, gündeme ilişkin soruları yanıtlayan Mark Mobius 'un açıklamalarında Türkiye yorumu dikkat çekti.
PETROL FİYATLARI TAVANINI GÖRDÜ MÜ? Şu anda yaşanan Ukrayna krizini nasıl değerlendiriyorsunuz? Bu gelişme dünya finans piyasalarında sizce yakın ve orta vadede nasıl bir etki yaratacak? Rusya Ukrayna çatışmasını nasıl değerlendiriyorsunuz? Öncelikle Türkiye, Rusya'nın Ukrayna işgalini kınamak konusunda Avrupa ülkelerıne katılarak çok yerinde bır duruş sergiledi. Bu hem Türkıye için hem önemli hem de doğru bir hamle. İkinci olarak bazı yönlerden Ukrayna'daki durum, Rusya'nın yeni Afganistan'ı olarak nitelendirilebilir. Birçok yönden Rusya'nın uzun bir gerilla savaşına çekilme durumu olabilir. Bu da Rusya'nın pozisyonunu büyük ölçüde zayıflatacaktır. Batıda birçok kişi ve hükümet bunun yaşanmasından yana. Böylece Putin'in bölgedeki gücü de azalacaktır. Elbette birçokları petrol fiyatlarının artmasından endişe ediyor. Rusya'ya birçok alternatif bulunduğundan petrol fiyatlarının artış göstereceğini sanmıyorum.
Buna ek olarak alternatif enerji kaynakları da mevcut. Suudi Arabistan petrol arzını artırarak fiyatları aşağı çekebilir ya da sabit tutabilir. ABD'nin de petrol üretimini büyük oranda artırma kapasitesi bulunuyor. Aynı durum doğal gaz için de geçerli. Bu yüzden bu konularda çok endişeli değilim. Tabii ki enflasyonist bir ortamdayız. Ve tüm fiyatlar artış gösterecek, ancak enerji konusunun büyük bir sorun olacağını düşünmüyorum.
"TÜRKİYE'DE DAHA FAZLA SATIN ALMA YAPABİLİRİZ" Rusya ve Ukrayna ile ticaret yapan ülkeler nasıl etkilenecek? Unutulmamalı ki buna benzer her senaryoda kazananlar ve kaybedenler olacaktır. Örneğin, Ukrayna önemli bir buğday üreticisi. Ama bu yıl iyi mahsül alınamayacak. Bu durum Avustralya gibi buğday ihracatçısı diğer ülkelerin işine gelecek. Daha iyi bir konumda olacaklar. Bu bağlamda bazı ülkelerin diğerlerine kıyasla daha fazla çıkar sağlayacağını söyleyebiliriz.
Şu anda Rusya 'nın çevresindeki Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri de sorunlarla karşı karşıya. Rusya'nın Ukrayna'da amacına ulaşması halinde bölgedeki gücünü daha da artırmasından endişe ediliyor. Bu ülkeler de yatırımcıların ayrılması gibi olumsuzluklarla karşılaşacak. Ancak bizim değerlendirmemiz Rusya'nın başarılı olmayacağı yönünde. Bu sebeple bölge ülkelerindeki yatırımlarımızı koruyacağız. Bildiğiniz gibi Türkiye 'de de yatırımlarımız var ve bunları elimizden çıkarmayı düşünmüyoruz. Fiyatların düşmesiyle daha fazla satın alma da yapabiliriz. Bu sebeple Türkiyenin pozisyonu bizi endişelendirmiyor.
"RUSYA'NIN PARTNERLERİ ÇOK İYİ DURUMDA OLMAYACAK" Özellikle Rusya'nın yatırım partnerleri bu süreçten nasıl etkilenecek? Ukrayna 'daki saldırganlığı sebebiyle, Rusya 'nın diğer partnerlerinin de çok iyi bir durumda olacağını sanmıyorum. Rusya bağlantılı kim varsa artık uluslararası toplum tarafından kınanıyor. Ve bu da büyük bir sorun.
"RUSLAR DUBAİDE EMLAK YATIRIMINA YÖNELDİ" Rus oligarklar, Batı piyasalarında yatırım yapanlar paralarını nereye yönlendirecekler sizce? Çok ilginç bir soru. Burada Dubai'de bir emlakçı ile konuşuyordum, Dubai'den mülk almak isteyen çok sayıda Rus vatandaşının kendisiyle iletişime geçtiğini söyledi. Rusya dışında parası olan tüm oligarklar, ülke dışından emlak ya da mülk satın almak isteyecektir. Ancak para transferi yollarının birçoğu bu kişiler için tıkanmış durumda. İsviçre'den ya da benzer yerlerden para çıkarma şansları olmayacak.
"ASYA ÜLKELERİ DE AVRUPA'DAN UZAKLAŞMAK İSTEYEN YATIRIMCILAR İÇİN CAZİP OLACAKTIR" Büyüyen piyasalar kadar Batıdaki büyük yatırım araçları, özellikle hisse senetleri piyasaları pandemiden olumsuz etkilendi. Şimdi de Ukrayna krizini yaşıyoruz. Ne dersiniz, dünyada sıcak para akışı gelecek dönemde hangi ülkelere ve ne tür yatırım araçlarına olacak? Öncelikle ABD pazarının bir yatırımcı cenneti olmaya devam etmesini öngörüyoruz. Asya ülkeleri de Avrupa'dan uzaklaşmak isteyen yatırımcılar için cazip olacaktır. Tayvan, Kore, Vietnam ve Çin gibi ülkeler özellikle. Çin'deki birçok şirket cazip olabilir. Brezilya gibi Latin Amerika ülkeleri de cazibe merkezi haline gelebilir. Durum şirketlere bağlı ancak Avrupa'dan uzak pazarlar yatırımcıları çekecektir.
"RUSYA'DAKİ YATIRIMI TÜRKİYE ÇEKEBİLİR" Türkiye ile Rusya ilişkileri en zor dönemlerde bile karşılıklı ticarette köprüleri atmadı; hele ki enerji ve turizm alanlarında. Büyüyen pazarlar arasında sizce Türkiye bu krizden bir fırsat çıkarır mı? Yatırımcılar için daha cazip hale gelebilir mi? Türkiye 'nin cazibesini koruyup daha da artırıcağına inanıyorum. Rusya 'nın imkanları yatırımcılar için kapanmış vaziyette. Artık Rusya'da yatırım yapmak imkansız hale geldi. Türkiye ve diğer büyüyen piyasalar tüm bu yatırımı çekecektir. Ayrıca, unutmamalı ki pandemi önlemlerinin gevşetilmesiyle dünya'daki birçok turistin ülke dışı seyahat imkanı oluşuyor. Bence bu yıl Türkiye, dünyadan gelen turizm akışından daha büyük ölçüde faydalanacaktır. Özellikle buradan, Ortadoğu'dan. Şahsen ben 2 ay önce Dubai'den Türkiye'ye geldim ve bunu daha sık yapmayı planlıyorum.
"PETROL 100 DOLARI AŞINCA RÜZGAR VE GÜNEŞ ENERJİSİ CAZİPLEŞİYOR" Petrol fiyatlarının daha da artacağını düşünüyor musunuz? Enerji krizi kapıda mı? Petrol fiyatlarının fırlayacağını düşünmüyorum. Dramatik bir yükseliş öngömüyorum zira birçok alternatif mevcut. Unutmayın ki petrolün varil fiyatı 100 doların üzerine çıktığında rüzgar ve güneş enerjisi gibi alternatif enerji kaynakları çok cazip hale geliyor. Fiyat artışının orta düzeyde gerçekleşeceğini ve enflasyon seviyesinde seyredeceğini düşünüyorum. Dolar cinsinden enflasyon yıllık yüzde 7-8 civarında bulunuyor. Petrolde de benzer bir artış beklenebilir.
"RUSYA'YA DOĞAL GAZ ALTERNATİFLERİ DE ÇIKACAKTIR" Pandemi ve Ukrayna savaşı birleşince dünya doğal gaz piyasasının bu süreçten nasıl etkileneceğini düşünüyorsunuz? Rusya büyük bir doğalgaz üreticisi. Başta Almanya olmak üzere Avrupa'da çok önemli partnerleri var Rusya'nın, sizce Rusya doğalgaz akışını keser mi? Avrupa enerji krizine nasıl hazırlanmalı? Sorun Rusya 'nın vanaları kapatması değil. Asıl problem ödemenin nasıl yapılacağı. Çünkü tüm bu ödeme mekanizmaları kapatılmış durumda. Almanya'nın adımları rus doğalgaz ından mahrum kalmaya hazırlıklı olduklarını gösteriyor. Doğal gaz konusunda da ortadoğu'nun da aralarında olduğu birçok alternatif var. Katar doğalgaz ihracatçısı. ABD'de büyük ihracatçılar arasında. Rusya'ya doğal gaz alternatifleri de çıkacaktır. Avrupa zorlukla da olsa idare edecektir diye düşünüyorum. Zorlukla diyorum çünkü şu ana kadar Rus petrol ü ve doğal gazına büyük bir bağımlılık hali mevcuttu.
"TEKNOLOJİ HİSSELERİ EN ÜST DÜZEY YATIRIMLAR OLARAK DİKKAT ÇEKİYOR" Özellikle istihdam yaratan sektörlere baktığınızda reel sektöre yatırım yapmak sizce ne derece doğru? Bu alanda hangi üretim kolları öne çıkıyor sizce? Şu dönemde, gelişen piyasalarda en önde gelen yatırım destinasyonlarınız hangileri? Teknoloji bağlantılı destinasyonlar en üst düzey yatırımlar için dikkat çekiyor. Yüksek teknoloji ve elektronik cihazlar, yarı iletken üreten, yazılım geliştiren şirketler yatırımcıların büyük ilgisini çekiyor. Bildiğiniz gibi türkiye 'de de bir yazılım şirketi yatırımımız var. Bunun yanı sıra, doğrudan teknoloji üretmese de teknolojiyi doğrudan kullanan şirketler de cazip. Mesela kot giysiler üreten şirketler artık her geçen gün daha fazla teknoloji kullanıyor. Sadece üretim değil dağıtım ve envanter takibinde de teknoloji giderek önem kazanıyor. İster perakende, ister üretim olsun, ya da doğrudan elektronik olsun, teknolojik araçları etkin kullanan şirketlerle yakından ilgileniyoruz.
"UZUN VADEDE KRİPTO PARALAR SİLİNECEKTİR" Kripto paralar ile ilgili görüşlerinizi almak isterim. Ne dersiniz, kripto paralar dünya finans sisteminde nasıl bir etki yaratacak? Olumlu ya da olumsuz, bu etkilerin neler olduğunu düşünüyorsunuz? Halihazırda Ruslar kripto para almak isteyeceklerdir. Zira bu Rusya 'dan para çıkarabilmenin bir yolu. Bitcoin fiyatlarındaki artışın sebeplerinden biri de bu. Ancak uzun vadede kripto paraların zamanla silinip yok olacağını düşünüyorum. Çünkü temelde fiyatların alıcı sayısıyla arttığı "ponzi" mantığına dayanıyorlar. Yani kripto paraların değerini koruyabilmesi için yatırımcı sayısının sürekli artması gerekiyor. Bunun gerçekleşeceğine inanmıyorum. Uzun vadede kripto paralar silinecektir. Ama bu dijital paranın yok olacağı anlamına gelmiyor. Halihazırda dijital para kullanılıyor. Cep telefonumla bile ödeme yapabiliyorum. Bu da bir dijital ödeme şekli. Ancak kriptoparaların parlak bir geleceği olduğunu düşünmüyorum.