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Piyasa beklentisi ABD enflasyonunun aylık bazda yĆ¼zde 1,2 oranında; senelik bazda ise yĆ¼zde 8,4 civarında gelmesi yƶnĆ¼ndeydi. ABD'nin enflasyonu ƶnceki ay ise yĆ¼zde 7,9 civarında gerƧekleÅerek 40 senenin zirvesini yenilemiÅti. ABD enflasyonunda yaÅanan yĆ¼kseliÅ ABD Merkez Bankası'nın (Fed) sıkılaÅma politikası Ć¼stĆ¼nde direkt olarak etkili oluyor. YĆ¼kselen enflasyon sebebiyle Fed faiz artırım takvimini ƶne ƧekmiÅti. Fed'in Åahin tonunu artırması dĆ¼nyada dolar varlıklarını gĆ¼Ć§lendirirken; ters korelasyon etkisiyle altın fiyatları nı baskılıyor. DiÄer taraftan artan kĆ¼resel enflasyonist risk, yatırımcıları enflasyondan korunmak amacıyla gĆ¼venilir varlıklara itiyor.
Altın, ABD enflasyonu ile yĆ¼kseldi
ABD'de dalgalı besin ve enerji fiyatlarının Ƨıkarılmasıyla meydana gelen Ƨekirdek enflasyonda toparlanma olsa da manÅet enflasyon Mart ayında 1981'den bu yana en yĆ¼ksek oranına ulaÅtı.
Tahvil getirileri Salı gĆ¼nkĆ¼ dĆ¼ÅĆ¼ÅĆ¼n ardındannda piyasaların, Fed'in faizleri artırma konusu ile ilgili ne kadar agresif davranacaÄı konusu ile ilgili beklentilerini dĆ¼ÅĆ¼rmesiyle yĆ¼kseliÅine devam etti. Spot altın fiyatları , Ukrayna savaÅı sebebiyle meydana Ƨıkan enflasyonist baskı iƧerisinde deÄer saklama aracı olarak yatırımcıların ilgi gƶstermesi sebebiyle destek gƶrmeye devam ediyor.
Altın fiyatları iƧin bu kez tarih deÄil saatine kadar sƶyledi! Mayıs ayında... Gram altının Åu an 910-915 TL seviyelerinden prosedĆ¼r gƶrdĆ¼ÄĆ¼nĆ¼ anımsatarak, Nisan ayında tekrardan 900 TL'nin altına sarkmalar olma ihtimalini ƶngƶrdĆ¼ÄĆ¼nĆ¼ ifade etti. Fakat gram altın daki bu sarkmanın son alım fırsatı olduÄunu yineleyen MemiÅ, '' Nisan ayında altın alan aldı. Almayan Ƨok bĆ¼yĆ¼k bir ziyan iƧinde olacak '' diyerek Mayıs ayında TĆ¼rkiye'yi bekleyen fırtınaya ilgi Ƨekti.
Altın fiyatları nda Nisan ayı amacıyla son bir alım fırsatı yaratılacaÄını ve fiyatların dĆ¼ÅeceÄini ifade eden MemiÅ, Mayıs ayında hem altın da hem de dolarda bĆ¼yĆ¼k bir felaketin beklendiÄi sƶyledi. Mayıs ayında baÅlayacak olan felaket, EylĆ¼l ayına kadar sĆ¼recek ve bu 4 ayda bilhassa gram altın fiyatlarında beklenmeyen haller yaÅanması olası olacak. Ä°slam MemiÅ , piyasalarda Nisan ayında 'yalan' bir barÄ±Å Ć¶ykĆ¼sĆ¼nĆ¼n yazılacaÄını, fakat bu barıŠgerƧekleÅmeyeceÄi amacıyla Mayıs ayından itibaren altın fiyatlarında bĆ¼yĆ¼k bir yĆ¼kseliÅ olacaÄını dile getirdi.
Kuyumcular altın fiyatları artacak diyor Hindistan'da dĆ¼ÄĆ¼n sezonunun aƧılmasının altına olan talebi arttıracaÄını aktaran KırÅehirli Kuyumcu Ahmet Durukan, "Hindistan'da dĆ¼ÄĆ¼n sezonunun altın fiyatları na, bu durumda ons fiyatlarına yansıyacak. Ham petrol fiyatlarının artıŠgƶstermesi her kalemde de artıÅa sebep olacak.
Altın alırken taksit sayısı artacak mı? Altın alımlarında taksit sayısının arttırılmasının ƶnemli olduÄunu aktaran Durukan, "DĆ¼ÄĆ¼n sezonu aƧılıyor, insanlar nasıl bilezik ve altın alacaklar? Devletimizden maÄduriyetler olmaması iƧi altına ek taksit talep ediyoruz.
Åoke eden altın yorumları Konu ile alakalı peÅ peÅe aƧıklamalar gelir iken yerli uzmanlar kadar yabancı uzman yorumları da dikkatle takip ediliyordu. BaÅarılı tahminler ile Ć¼nlenen Piyasa analisti Jordan Roy-Byrne yapmıŠolduÄu son yorumu ile altın fiyatları nda 7 senedir yassı bir pazar yaÅandıÄını
Piyasa analisti Jordan Roy-Byrne yapmıŠolduÄu deÄerlendirmesinde kĆ¼lƧe altın fiyatlarının dĆ¼Åmesine raÄmen madencilik maliyetlerinin arttıÄına ilgi Ƨekti. Madencilerin kĆ¼lƧe fiyatından daha Ƨok dĆ¼Åmesinin nedenini Ƨifte darbeye baÄlayan Ć¼nlĆ¼ analist bĆ¼yĆ¼k bir dip ya da ƧıkıŠhamleleri dƶneminde bu hareketin yaÅandıÄını ve kırılma habercisi olduÄunu sƶyledi.
BaÅarılı stratejist altının tarihin en ƶnemli 3 kırılmasından birinin eÅiÄinde olduÄunu belirterek ons altın fiyatının 2 bin 100 dolar seviyesini aÅması ve bu seviyeyi kırması halinde 3 bin dolarlık yukarı yƶnlĆ¼ hedefine ulaÅacaÄını, sonrasında ise 4 bin dolarlık hedefi tetikleyebileceÄini iddia etti.
Yukarı yƶnlĆ¼ patlayıcı bir potansiyeli olduÄu sendrom edilen altın fiyatları hedefiyle on yıllık bazlardan kurtulması halinde sert bir yĆ¼kseliÅ bekleniyor.
Altın fiyatlarında FED desteÄi Altın, Ukrayna savaÅı, kĆ¼resel bĆ¼yĆ¼me riskleri ve enflasyona karÅı hedge arayıÅı nedeniyle gƶrdĆ¼ÄĆ¼ kuvvetli taleple yukarıya yƶnlĆ¼ hareketini sĆ¼rdĆ¼rĆ¼yor. Altın, Fed'in sıkılaÅma yol haritasını deÄerlendiren yatırımcılarla Ć¼st Ć¼ste beÅinci gĆ¼nĆ¼nde de yĆ¼kseldi. Artan tahvil getirileri ve gĆ¼Ć§lenen dolar trendlerinin her ikisi de Fed'in daha sĆ¼ratli sıkılaÅma beklentisine iÅaret eder iken bir yandan da altını baskılamaya devam ediyor.
Fed Chicago BaÅkanı olan ve Fed'in en uzun sĆ¼reli gĆ¼vercin baÅkanlarından olan Charles Evans enflasyonla mĆ¼cadele adına daha sĆ¼ratli bir faiz artıÅının tartıÅmaya deÄer olduÄunu kaydetti. Bununla eÅ gĆ¼dĆ¼mlĆ¼ Fed guvernƶrĆ¼ Christopher Waller bankanın ham bir kuvvet aracı olan ve ekonomiye balyoz etkileri yapabilecek faiz artıÅlarından kaynaklanabilecek "ikincil hasarları" ƶnlemek amacıyla elinden geleni gerƧekletireceÄini sƶyledi. Bloomberg ekonomistlerinin anketine gƶre enflasyon, geƧen ay bir ƶnceki seneye gƶre yĆ¼zde 8,4 oranında artıŠgƶsterdi. Bu rakam mĆ¼him bir kilometre taÅı olsa da enflasyonun yĆ¼ksek ve kalıcı olacaÄına dair kaygılar devam ediyor.
Oanda Corp Kıdemli Pazar Analisti Edward Moya, "Altın, ƶnĆ¼mĆ¼zdeki aylarda jeopolitik kaynaklı enflasyon ve bĆ¼yĆ¼me Ć¼zerindeki belirsizlik yĆ¼ksek kaldıÄı ve Fed'in yaz aylarında sıkılaÅma politikasıyla alakalı ne kadar agresifleÅeceÄi Ć¼stĆ¼ne gelen farklı gƶrĆ¼Åler nedeniyle kuvvetli talep gƶrmeye devam edebilir " deÄerlendirmesinde bulundu.
Canlı altın fiyatları
Altın Fed tutanaklarına sınırlı reaksiyon verdi Altın, yatırımcıların Fed'in senelik 1 trilyon doların Ć¼stĆ¼nde sıkılaÅma politikası program ve enflasyona karÅı faiz artırma siyasetini deÄerlendirmesiyle yatay seyrini sĆ¼rdĆ¼rĆ¼yor. Spot altın, hızlandırılmıŠsıkılaÅma siyasetinin faizsiz varlıklar Ć¼stĆ¼nden baskı kurma Åansına karÅın 1900 dolar Ć¼stĆ¼nde prosedĆ¼r gƶrmeye devam ediyor. Fed'in pandemi dƶneminde satın aldıÄı varlıkları azaltmak amacıyla hazırladıÄı yol haritası 25 baz puan faiz artırılan toplantı tutanaklarında aƧıklıÄa kavuÅtu.
Bunun yanısıra tutanaklar toplantıya katılanların ƧoÄunluÄunun fiyat baskıları yumuÅamaması halinde bir ya da daha Ƨok yarım puanlık faiz artıÅına sıcak baktıÄını da gƶsterdi. 10 senelik hazine tahvil getirileri de 2019'dan bu yana en yĆ¼ksek oranına yaklaÅtı.
Yine de Ukrayna'da yaÅanan savaÅın ekonomiler Ć¼stĆ¼nde etkisi ve yayılmaya devam enflasyonist baskılar namacıylaiyle deÄer korumaya yƶnelik yatırım araƧlarına olan talep altına olan desteÄin devam etmesine namacıyla oluyor.
"ABD tahvil getirilerindeki artıÅa karÅın altın fiyatları ndaki direnƧ, beklentilerin daha geniÅ bir kapsamda fiyatlanabileceÄine iÅaret ediyor" diyen IG Asia Stratejisti Yeap Jun Rong, "ĆnĆ¼mĆ¼zdeki dƶnemde uzayan jeopolitik gerginlikler ve ekonomik bĆ¼yĆ¼menin zayıflayacaÄına dair kaygılar altını fiyatlarını destekleyerek 1900 doları izlenmesi gereken bir destek oranına dƶnĆ¼ÅtĆ¼rebilir" deÄerlendirmesinde bulundu.
Not: Fiyatlar gĆ¼n iƧinde deÄiÅime uÄramaktadır.
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NOT: Haberimiz kesinlikle yatırım tavsiyesi deÄildir.