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Moody's 'in Ülke Riskleri Grubu Kıdemli Başkan Yardımcısı Kathrin Muehlbronner, yaptığı açıklamada, Türkiye ekonomisindeki gelişmelere ilişkin değerlendirmelerde bulundu.
"Büyümeye ilişkin görece halen iyimseriz. Türk lirasında yaşanan değer kaybı nedeniyle ihracat iyi seyrediyor. İhracatçılara ve yatırımlara verilen açık teşvikler mevcut" ifadesini kullanan Muehlbronner, hükümetin, verdiği destekler yoluyla halkın en yoksul kesimini enflasyona karşı korumaya çalıştığını söyledi.
Muehlbronner, "Turizm (önümüzdeki dönemde) oldukça iyi olabilir. Türkiye'nin (bu yılın sonunda) yüzde 3 civarında bir büyüme kaydetmesini bekliyoruz. Hatta bu yılın sonunda büyüme bunun biraz üzerinde bile gerçekleşebilir. (Türkiye'de) Geçen yıla göre yavaşlama olmasına rağmen büyüme birçok ülkeye kıyasla halen epey iyi rakamlarda." diye konuştu.
Türkiye'de enflasyonun yüksek seviyelerde olduğunu belirten Muehlbronner, bu yılın sonuna doğru enflasyonun baz etkisiyle mekanik bir şekilde düşmesinin beklendiğini kaydetti.
Aralık 2021'de enflasyonun oldukça yüksek seviyelere ulaştığını aktaran Muehlbronner, "(Bu yıl) Aralık ayında geçen yıla benzer bir artış olmadıkça enflasyon dikkate değer şekilde düşecektir. Artık yılın sonuna kadar, aralık ayında, enflasyonun yüzde 70'ten yüzde 55'e düştüğü bir durumla karşılaşabiliriz." dedi.
Enflasyonun hanehalkının satın alım gücünü azalttığını ifade eden Muehlbronner, Avrupa'da ekonomik büyümenin yavaşlaması halinde Türkiye'nin en büyük ihracat pazarı olması nedeniyle bu durumun Türkiye'ye bazı etkileri olabileceğini kaydetti.
"KUR KORUMALI TL VADELİ MEVDUAT HESABI POZİTİF BİR ADIM" Kathrin Muehlbronner, Türkiye'nin gelecek dönem ekonomik görünümüne ilişkin risklerin; enflasyon, kur baskısı ve genişlemeci parasal politikalar olduğunu belirterek, Kur Korumalı TL Vadeli Mevduat Hesabı'nın olumlu bir adım olduğunu söyledi.
Muehlbronner, devamla şunları kaydetti:
"Tabii ki uygulama (Kur Korumalı TL Vadeli Mevduat Hesabı), para biriminin dengelenmesine yardımcı oldu. Bu ürün ile mevduatların dolarizasyonu yaklaşık 10 puan azaldı. Böylece şu anda dolar cinsinden mevduatlarda, son para birimi krizi öncesindeki seviyelere dönüldü. Bu tabii ki pozitif bir adım.
Gözlemlediğimiz bir diğer pozitif unsur ise yüksek enflasyona, Fed'in parasal sıkılaştırmasına, (küresel) gerilimlere rağmen mevduat sahiplerinin Türk bankalarına olan güveni devam ediyor. Mevduat sahiplerinin Türk lirası ve ABD doları arasında geçişler yaptığını görüyoruz. Fakat kimsenin parasını (bankacılık sisteminden) çıkardığını görmüyoruz."
"TÜRKİYE'DE BANKALARIN PERFORMANSLARI SON DERECE İYİ" Moody's Ülke Riskleri Grubu Kıdemli Başkan Yardımcısı Muehlbronner, Türkiye'de bankaların performanslarının son derece iyi olduğunu vurgulayarak, "Türk bankaları sağlam ve açık bir şekilde ekonomik dengelenmenin sağlanmasındaki önemli unsurlar arasında. İhracatçılar, Türk lirasındaki düşüşten faydalanıyor. Türk ekonomisi her zaman dirençli oldu. Büyük ve çeşitliliği olan bir ekonomi." ifadelerini kullandı.
Türkiye'nin küresel ekonomik görünümde yaşanan bazı değişikliklerden olumlu yönde etkilenebileceğine işaret eden Muehlbronner, "Türkiye, Avrupalı şirketlerin üretimlerini daha yakın noktalara çekmesinden büyük oranda faydalanabilir. Avrupa, Türkiye'nin en büyük ticaret ortağı konumunda. (Avrupalı) Şirketler, tedarikçilerine tam olarak bağlanmış durumda. Türkiye, bu durumdan yararlanabilir." dedi.