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Küresel piyasalar ABD Merkez Bankası'nın (Fed ) bu akşam açıklayacağı faiz kararını bekliyor.
Karar öncesi dalgalı seyir sürerken, yatırımcılar Fed Başkanı Jerome Powell 'ın yapacağı konuşma ve güncellenen makroekonomik projeksiyonlarda para politikasının gelecek dönem seyrine ilişkin ipuçları arayacak.
FED FAİZ KARARINI BU AKŞAM AÇIKLAYACAK Fed Açık Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) bu akşam 21.00'de faiz kararını açıklayacak. Banka'nın faiz kararının yanı sıra gelecek döneme ilişkin açıklayacağı projeksiyonlar ve Fed Başkanı Jerome Powell'ın konuşması da yakından takip edilecek.
75 BAZ PUANLIK ARTIŞ BEKLENİYOR Banka'nın en son haziran ayında açıkladığı projeksiyonlara göre, fed eral fonlama oranının yıl sonunda yüzde 3,4, gelecek yıl için ise yüzde 3,8 olması bekleniyordu. Kasım ve aralık aylarında yılın son iki toplantısını gerçekleştirecek olan Banka'nın bugün açıklayacağı projeksiyonlarda, oranların 2022 sonunda yüzde 4'ün üzerine çıkacağına işaret edilmesi öngörülüyor.
Halihazırda para piyasası fiyatlamalarında, Fed 'in 75 baz puanlık faiz artırımına yüzde 82 ihtimal veriliyor. Banka'nın 1 tam puanlık faiz artırımı ise yüzde 18 ile düşük ihtimal olarak görülüyor. Beklentilerin gerçekleşmesi durumunda Fed, üst üste 3'üncü toplantısında faizleri 75 baz puan artırarak yüzde 3,00-3,25 aralığına yükseltmiş olacak.
Fed toplantısı öncesi dün küresel pay piyasalarında satıcılı bir seyir izlenirken, tahvil piyasasından çıkışlar devam etti. ABD'nin 10 yıllık tahvil faizi dün yüzde 3,60 ile Nisan 2011'den bu yana en yüksek seviyeyi görmesinin ardından yüzde 3,56'da dengelendi. ABD'nin 2 yıllık tahvil faizi de Ekim 2007'den bu yana ilk kez yüzde 4'ün üzerini gördü.
Küresel çapta dolara olan talebin de güçlenmeye devam ettiği görülürken, dolar endeksi 110,3 ile iki haftanın en yüksek seviyesini test etti.
Bu gelişmelerle dün New York borsasında da satıcılı bir seyir izlendi. Dow Jones endeksi yüzde 1,01, Nasdaq endeksi yüzde 0,95 ve S&P 500 endeksi yüzde 1,13 değer kaybetti. Endeks vadeli kontratların yeni güne ise alıcılı başlaması dikkati çekiyor.
Avrupa tarafında dün Ukrayna'nın doğusunda Rusya yanlısı ayrılıkçıların kontrolündeki sözde Donetsk ve Luhansk cumhuriyetlerinde Rusya'ya bağlanmak için referandum kararı alınırken, bu gelişme sonrası Moskova Borsası (MOEX) ve dolar bazlı RTS endeksinde yüzde 10'un üzerinde düşüş yaşandı. Enerji krizine ilişkin gelişmelerin de yakından takip edildiği bölgede, Hollanda'da 1 Ocak 2023'ten itibaren enerji ücretlerinde tavan fiyat uygulamasına gideceğini bildirdi. Öte yandan Almanya'nın, en büyük Rus gazı ithalatçısı konumundaki Uniper şirketinin çoğunluk hissesini alacağı bildirildi.
1 dolar kaç para?
Enflasyonist endişeleri besleyen enerji krizine karşı alınan önlemlere karşın, merkez bankaları "şahin" para politikası adımlarına devam etti. İsveç Merkez Bankası (Riksbank) dün politika faizini beklentilerin üzerinde 100 baz puan artırarak yüzde 1,75'e yükseltirken, gelecek 6 ay için faiz artırımlarının devam edeceği sinyali verdi. Yarın kararlarını açıklayacak olan İngiltere Merkez Bankası'nın (BoE) da faizlerde 50 ve 75 baz puanlık artırıma gideceği ihtimali, neredeyse eşitlendi.
Bu gelişmelerle dün Avrupa borsalarında satıcılı bir seyir izlenirken, 10 yıllık tahvil faizleri Almanya'da yüzde 1,96 ile Ocak 2014'ten, İtalya'da yüzde 4,24 ile Aralık 2013'ten, Fransa'da ise yüzde 2,51 ile Temmuz 2018'den bu yana en yüksek seviyeyi gördü. Almanya'da DAX 40 endeksi yüzde 1,03, Fransa'da CAC 40 endeksi yüzde 1,35 ve İngiltere'de FTSE 100 endeksi yüzde 0,61 geriledi. Avro/dolar paritesi yeniden 1 kritik eşiğinin altına inerek 0,9960'tan işlem görürken, Avrupa'da endeks vadeli kontratların yeni güne alıcılı başladığı görülüyor.
1 euro kaç para?
Asya tarafında, Japonya Merkez Bankası'nın yarın açıklanacak kararları öncesi yendeki zayıf seyir sürerken, dün referans kredi faiz oranında değişikliğe gitmeyen Çin Merkez Bankası, mevcut faiz oranı seviyesinin makul olduğunu, gelecekteki politika eylemleri için alan sağladığını bildirdi. Bugünkü Fed kararı öncesinde pay piyasalarının yeni güne satıcılı başladığı görülürken, kapanışa yakın Çin'de Şanghay bileşik endeksi yüzde 0,1, Japonya'da Nikkei 225 endeksi yüzde 1,2 ve Hong Kong'da Hang Seng endeksi yüzde 1,5 düşüşle seyrediyor.
Yurt içinde ise bankacılık sektörü hisselerindeki toparlanmanın etkisiyle dün alıcılı bir seyir izlenen Borsa İstanbul'da, BIST 100 endeksi günü yüzde 2,44 değer kazanarak 3.277,50 puandan tamamladı. Dolar/TL ise dün yüzde 0,1 artışla 18,3082'den kapanmasının ardından bugün bankalararası piyasanın açılışında 18,3070'ten işlem görüyor.
Analistler, küresel çapta yatırımcıların agresif faiz artırımlarına hazırlanması ile pay piyasalarında dalgalı bir seyir izlendiğini söyledi.
Altının gramı kaç para?
Bugün yurt içinde veri gündeminin sakin olduğunu, yurt dışında ise ABD'de 2. el konut satışlarının takip edileceğini belirten analistler, teknik açıdan BIST 100 endeksinde 3.150 puanın destek, 3.340 seviyesinin direnç konumunda bulunduğunu bildirdi.
Piyasalarda bugün takip edilecek veriler şöyle:
10.00 Türkiye, temmuz ayı tarımsal girdi fiyat endeksi
17.00 ABD, ağustos ayı ikinci el konut satışları
21.00 ABD, Fed'in faiz kararı
21.30 Fed Başkanı Powell'ın konuşması