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Uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşu Moody's, Türk bankalarının görünümünü negatiften durağana çevirdi.
ATILAN ADIMLAR DESTEKLEYİCİ OLDU Moody's'ten yapılan açıklamada, hükümetin mayıs ayındaki seçimler sonrasında ortodoks politikaların uygulanmasına yönelik attığı adımların, Türk bankalarının faaliyet ortamını destekleyici yönde olduğu kaydedildi.
Açıklamada, Türk bankaları için faaliyet ortamının ekonomi k büyümede beklenen yavaşlama nedeniyle zorlu olduğu belirtilirken, "Bununla birlikte, hükümetin mayıs ayındaki seçimi takiben politika yapımında ortodoksiye (ortodoks politikalara) geri dönmek için attığı ilk adımlar Türk bankalarının faaliyet koşullarını destekliyor." değerlendirmesinde bulunuldu.
Yüksek enflasyonun ve Türk lirasındaki değer kaybının tüketicilerin harcama gücünü ve borçluların borçlarını ödeme kapasitesini etkilediği belirtilen açıklamada, bankaların karlılık seviyesinin 2022 yılındaki zirve seviyelerinden daha normal seviyelere gerilemesinin fakat tüm bu değişime rağmen güçlü olmaya devam etmesinin beklendiği belirtildi.
Moody's açıklamasında, bankaların dış fonlama pozisyonlarının ve dolarizasyon seviyelerinin iyileştiği, özellikle de yabancı para birimindeki likiditenin yeterli seviyede kalmasını beklendiği belirtildi.
Türkiye ekonomisinin bu yıl yüzde 4,2 seviyesinde büyüme göstermesinin, enflasyonun ise yüzde 51 seviyesinde gerçekleşmesinin beklendiği kaydedilen açıklamada, "Avrupa pazarındaki görünüm nedeniyle bu yılın ilk yarısında ekonomik yavaşlamaya rağmen Türkiye'nin güçlü ihracatı ve turizm sektörleri büyümeyi desteklemeye devam edecektir." ifadesine yer verildi.
Açıklamada, "Ekonomik oynaklığa rağmen, Türk bankalarının fonlama ve likidite pozisyonları, özellikle yabancı para biriminde belirgin bir şekilde iyileşti." değerlendirmesinde bulunuldu.
MOODY'S TÜRKİYE'YE ÖVGÜ YAPMIŞTI Geçtiğimiz hafta Uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşu Moody's'in Türkiye ekonomisine yönelik yıllık analizinde, Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan'ın 5 yıllık bir dönem için yeniden seçildiği anımsatılarak, yeni hükümetin enflasyonu düşürmenin ve ülkenin cari açığını azaltmanın dahil olduğu daha ortodoks ekonomi politikalarına dönüş sözü verdiğine işaret edildi.
Analizde, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasının (TCMB) politika faiz oranlarını yükselttiği ve geçen yıl uygulanan ve bankaların çekirdek kararlılığına zarar veren birçok bozucu makroihtiyati tedbiri kademeli olarak kaldırdığı belirtildi.
Türk lirasının piyasa kaynaklı değer kaybının, ihracatçıların rekabet gücünü geri kazanmasına yardımcı olurken, TCMB'nin de döviz rezervlerini geri kazanmasına imkan sağladığı vurgulanan analizde, hükümetin depremin ardından yeniden inşa çalışmaları ve seçim harcamalarından kaynaklanan mali bozulmayı vergiler yoluyla düzeltmeye başladığı belirtildi.
"GÖRÜNÜM POZİTİFE DÖNEBİLİR VE NOT YÜKSELTİLEBİLİR" Analizde, Mart 2024'te yapılacak yerel seçimlere kadar para politikası sıkılaştırmasının kademeli bir şekilde devam etmesinin beklendiği ifade edilerek, bunun da enflasyonun gelecek aylarda yüksek seviyede kalacağına işaret ettiği bildirildi.
Ülkenin ekonomi k görümünün durağan olduğu ve dengeli riskleri yansıttığı kaydedilen analizde, "Ortodoks politikalara geçiş sürdürülürse ve makro dengesizliklerde düzenli bir azalmaya yol açarsa, görünüm pozitife dönebilir ve not yükseltilebilir." değerlendirmesi yapıldı.
Analizde, ekonomik büyümenin siyasi olarak kabul edilebilir seviyeden daha keskin bir şekilde yavaşlaması durumunda, başka bir politika değişikliği riskinin öneminin sürdüğüne işaret edilerek, ortodoks politikalara geçişin kısa ömürlü olması ve daha fazla makroekonomik stresin ortaya çıkması halinde görünümün negatife çevrilebileceği ifade edildi.
"FAİZ ORANLARININ DAHA DA YÜKSELTİLMESİ MUHTEMEL" Başkan Erdoğan'ın yeniden seçilmesinin ardından, Hazine ve Maliye Bakanı olarak Mehmet Şimşek ve TCMB Başkanı olarak Hafize Gaye Erkan'ı atamasının ortodoks politikalara dönüşün sinyallerini verdiği vurgulanan analizde, Cumhurbaşkanlığı Yardımcılığına da önceki hükümetlerde Kalkınma Bakanlığı yapmış ve ortodoks ekonomi politikalarını desteklediği bilinen Cevdet Yılmaz'ın atandığı anımsatıldı.
Analizde, geçen ay sonunda da TCMB Başkan yardımcılıklarına ortodoks görüşlere sahip atamalar yapıldığına değinilerek, şu değerlendirmede bulunuldu:
"Enflasyonu düşürmeyi, Türkiye'nin büyük dış dengesizliklerini azaltmayı ve mali disiplini sağlamaya kararlı olan yeni ekonomi ekibi, para ve maliye politikasının yönünü kademeli olarak düzeltmeye başladı. Daha ortodoks, kurallara dayalı ve öngörülebilir politika yapımına geçiş, kredi açısından olumlu ve beklediğimizden daha erken gerçekleşti."
Büyümenin son çeyreklerde yavaşlamasına rağmen yerel seçimler öncesinde sağlamlığını koruyacağı belirtilen analizde, büyüme ivmesinin gelecek çeyreklerde, özellikle sıkılaşan finansal koşulların yansıması olarak, daha da yavaşlamasının beklendiği kaydedildi.
Analizde, TCMB'nin iki toplantıda kademeli olarak politika faizini yüzde 8,5'ten yüzde 17,5'e çıkardığına ve bunu daha da yükseltmesinin muhtemel olduğuna işaret edilerek, maliye politikasının vergiler yoluyla sıkılaştırıldığı hatırlatıldı.
Ülkedeki kredi büyümesi, ihracat, sanayi üretimi, işsizlik oranı gibi verilere de atıfta bulunulan analizde, gelecek yıl, ortodoks ekonomi politikalarının devam etmesi ve parasal sıkılaştırmanın hızlanması varsayımıyla Türkiye'nin yüzde 2,5 civarında büyümesinin tahmin edildiği kaydedildi.
"TCMB TEMKİNLİ HAREKET ETTİ" Analizde, makroihtiyati tedbirlerin gevşetilmesinin olumlu olduğu ifade edilerek, uzun vadeli büyüme beklentilerinin de iyi olduğuna dikkat çekildi.
Kamu borcunun GSYH'ye oranının bu yılın sonunda yüzde 32 olmasının beklendiği bildirilen analizde, bunun emsal ülkelerin borç oranlarına göre düşük bir seviye olduğu belirtildi.
Analizde, Türkiye'nin borç ölçütlerinin kur şokuna karşı duyarlı, büyüme ve mali şoklara karşı da yüksek hassasiyete sahip olduğu ifade edildi.
Türk bankalarının, daha ortodoks para politikasına dönüşten ve makroihtiyati tedbirlerin kaldırılmasından fayda sağlayacağının altı çizilen analizde, daha yüksek faiz oranlarının bankaların temel marjlarının geri kazanılmasına yardımcı olacağı vurgulandı.
Analizde TCMB'nin kredi sıkılaştırıcı önlemlerinin kredi provizyonunun düşmesine yol açacağı bunun da bankaların gelir artışını sınırlayacağı kaydedilerek, Bankanın şimdiye kadar temkinli hareket ettiği ve piyasa işlevselliğini en çok bozan önlemlere odaklandığı değerlendirmesi yapıldı.
ŞİMŞEK AÇIKLAMIŞTI: KARARLIYIZ Hazine ve Maliye Bakanı Mehmet Şimşek de sosyal medya hesabından, uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşu Moody's'in Türkiye ekonomi sine yönelik yıllık analizindeki açıklamalarına ilişkin paylaşım yaparak, "Bunun kredi notumuza yansıyacağına inanıyoruz." demişti.
Moody's'in, Türkiye'nin kural bazlı ve öngörülebilir politikaya geçmesinin ülke kredi görünümü ve notu açısından olumlu olduğuna ilişkin analizine dikkati çeken Şimşek, "Makro-finansal istikrarı sağlamak ve ülkemizin şoklara karşı dayanıklılığını artırmak için kurala dayalı, uluslararası normlara uygun politikaları uygulama konusunda kararlıyız. Bunun kredi notumuza yansıyacağına inanıyoruz." değerlendirmesinde bulundu.