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Yeni ekonomi yönetiminin attığı adımlarla mayıs sonundan bu yana düşüş eğiliminde hareket eden Türkiye 'nin 5 yıllık kredi risk primi (CDS) Mart 2021'den bu yana ilk kez 300 baz puanın altına gerileyerek 299,9 baz puana indi.
Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerinin ardından iş başına gelen yeni ekonomi yönetimi, Türkiye ekonomisine ilişkin belirsizlikleri azaltarak TL varlıklara ilgiyi artırırken, bu adımlar uluslararası anlamda da karşılık buluyor.
Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB), Mayıs sonundan bu yana enflasyonla mücadele kapsamında politika faizini yüzde 8,50'den yüzde 40'a taşırken, birçok sadeleşme adımına da imza attı.
Söz konusu adımlar, Türk lirası varlıklara ilginin artmasını sağlarken, uluslararası finansal kuruluşların olumlu yöndeki açıklamaları devam ediyor.
Buna göre, uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşu Standard & Poor's (S&P), Türkiye 'de son dönemdeki politika düzenlemeleri nedeniyle takvim dışı değerlendirmeye giderek Türkiye'nin kredi notunu "B" olarak teyit etti, kredi notu görünümünü "durağan" dan "pozitif"e çevirdi.
Analistler, 15 Aralık Cuma günü piyasalar kapandıktan sonra uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşu Moody's'in Türkiye değerlendirmesinin beklendiğini, söz konusu gelişmelerin etkisiyle Moody's'in Türkiye'nin kredi notunda ve not görünümünde iyileştirme yapabileceğini aktardı.
Bununla birlikte, Merkez Bankası rezervleri de mayıs sonundan bu yana 42,9 milyar dolar artarak 141,4 milyar dolar ile tüm zamanların en yüksek seviyesine çıktı.
Son 11 haftadır aralıksız artış kaydeden toplam rezervler, 2022 yıl sonu seviyesi olan 128,8 milyar doların üzerindeki seyrini de devam ettiriyor.
Dolarizasyonun azalmasının devam etmesi ile hisse senedi ve tahvil piyasalarına olan yabancı girişleri de son zamanlarda Merkez Bankasının net rezervlerini destekledi.
TCMB'den bugün açıklanan verilere göre, 8 Aralık haftasında haftalık toplam net portföy girişi, 1 milyar 453,8 milyon dolar ile 21 Temmuz 2017'den bu yana en güçlü portföy girişi olarak kayıtlara geçti.
Türkiye ekonomisine yönelik öngörülebilirliğin artmasıyla Türkiye'nin 5 yıllık kredi risk primi de düşüş eğilimine geçerken, Türkiye'nin CDS'si, mayıs ayındaki 700 baz puan seviyelerinden gerileyerek Mart 2021'den bu yana ilk defa 300 baz puanın altına düştü ve 299,9 baz puana indi.
Dün de Deutsche Bank'ın hazırladığı "CEEMEA Strateji Notları" raporunda, TL'de carry trade fırsatının öne çıktığı kaydedilirken, daha önce de Bank of America, Türk bankalarına yönelik olumlu yönde rapor yayınlamıştı.
Bu gelişmelerle banka hisseleri öncülüğünde yükseliş eğilimini hızlandıran Borsa İstanbul'da BIST 100 endeksi yüzde 3'ten fazla yükselerek 7.750 puanın üzerine çıktı.
EN YÜKSEK SEVİYE
Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) toplam rezervleri, 8 Aralık haftasında bir önceki haftaya göre 1 milyar 225 milyon dolar artışla 141 milyar 374 milyon dolara çıkarak tüm zamanların en yüksek seviyesine ulaştı.
TCMB tarafından Haftalık Para ve Banka İstatistikleri yayımlandı.
Resmi İlandır
Buna göre, 8 Aralık itibarıyla Merkez Bankası brüt döviz rezervleri, 1 milyar 276 milyon dolar artışla 94 milyar 509 milyon dolara yükseldi. Brüt döviz rezervleri, 1 Aralık'ta 93 milyar 233 milyon dolar seviyesinde bulunuyordu.
Söz konusu dönemde altın rezervleri 52 milyon dolar azalarak 46 milyar 916 milyon dolardan 46 milyar 864 milyon dolara indi.
Merkez Bankasının toplam rezervleri, 8 Aralık haftasında bir önceki haftaya göre 1 milyar 225 milyon dolar yükselişle 140 milyar 149 milyon dolardan 141 milyar 374 milyon dolarla tüm zamanların en yüksek seviyesine ulaştı.
Toplam rezervlerde mayıs sonundan 8 Aralık ile biten haftaya kadar geçen sürede artış, 42 milyar 916 milyon dolar olurken, söz konusu artış yüzde 43,6'ya karşılık geldi.
TCMB rezervleri tarihler itibarıyla şöyle (milyon dolar):
Tarih Altın Rezervleri Brüt Döviz Rezervleri Toplam Rezervler 28.01.2022 38.577 71.636 110.214 25.02.2022 42.944 70.200 113.144 25.03.2022 42.399 65.638 108.037 29.04.2022 41.467 65.398 106.865 27.05.2022 41.611 61.285 102.897 24.06.2022 41.594 60.342 101.936 29.07.2022 40.163 61.101 101.263 26.08.2022 40.824 70.823 111.647 30.09.2022 38.996 68.052 107.048 28.10.2022 39.377 74.804 114.180 25.11.2022 42.835 79.766 122.601 30.12.2022 45.851 82.904 128.755 27.01.2023 50.933 76.206 127.139 24.02.2023 49.190 71.980 121.170 31.03.2023 52.176 70.247 122.423 28.04.2023 46.413 68.471 114.884 26.05.2023 41.939 56.519 98.458 27.06.2023 41.432 67.155 108.587 28.07.2023 41.425 72.349 113.774 25.08.2023 41.344 75.955 117.299 29.09.2023 40.629 81.575 122.203 27.10.2023 44.148 82.412 126.560 17.11.2023 45.241 89.226 134.468 24.11.2023 45.496 90.997 136.493 01.12.2023 46.916 93.233 140.149 08.12.2023 46.864 94.509 141.374
DESTEK OLMAYA DEVAM EDECEĞİZ
Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Başkanı Dr. Hafize Gaye Erkan, Türk lirasına geçiş zamanının geldiğini belirterek, "Bunun en doğrudan yansımalarını mevduat gelişmelerinde görüyoruz." dedi.
Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisinden (TİM) yapılan açıklamaya göre, Erkan, reel sektör görüşmeleri kapsamında TİM Sektörler Konseyi toplantısına katıldı.
TİM Dış Ticaret Kompleksi'nde gerçekleştirilen TİM Sektörler Konseyi toplantısında karşılıklı değerlendirmelerde bulunulurken, ihracatçılar açısından önemli görülen konular geniş bir kapsamda ele alındı.
TCMB Başkanı Erkan, toplantıda, fiyat istikrarının, istikrarlı ve sürdürülebilir büyüme için önemine değinerek, hem ihracatçıların dış talep nedeniyle yaşadığı zorlukların hem de ekonominin güçlü taraflarının farkında olduklarını bildirdi.
Erkan, merkez bankalarının toplumsal refaha katkı sağlamalarının, para politikasının ancak fiyat istikrarına odaklanmasıyla gerçekleştiğini belirterek, "Bu amaç aynı zamanda genel denge ve sürdürülebilirlik perspektifiyle ekonominin reel kesimini de yakından takip etmeyi gerektirmektedir. Bu kapsamda, ihracatçılarımızın ekonomiye dair projeksiyonları, eğilimleri ve görüşleri de değerlendirmelerimizde önem arz etmektedir." dedi.
Küresel ekonominin geçirdiği dönüşümle birlikte Türkiye 'nin yükselen potansiyelinden bahseden Erkan, "Fiyat istikrarı yoluyla öngörülebilirliğin artması, sizlerin bu potansiyeli gerçekleştirmesinin en güçlü destekçisi olacaktır." ifadesini kullandı.
Uygulanan politikanın etkisinin zamana yayıldığını, diğer yandan öncü gösterge niteliğinde bazı olumlu sonuçların alınmaya başlandığını kaydeden Erkan, "2024'ün ikinci yarısında başlayacak dezenflasyon döneminden önceki geçiş sürecinde talepte dengelenme yaşanırken, doğru politika tasarımlarıyla, üretimin sürekliliğinin sağlanmasına katkı vermeyi sürdüreceğiz." diye konuştu.
"DEZENFLASYONUN TESİSİ İÇİN GEREKLİ PARASAL SIKILIK DÜZEYİNE ÖNEMLİ ÖLÇÜDE YAKLAŞILDI"
TCMB Başkanı Erkan, Kasım Ayı Para Politikası Kurulu kararına atıfta bulunarak, dezenflasyonun tesisi için gerekli parasal sıkılık düzeyine önemli ölçüde yaklaşıldığını vurguladı.
Türk lirasına geçiş zamanının geldiğinin altını çizen Erkan, "Bunun en doğrudan yansımalarını mevduat gelişmelerinde görüyoruz. Mayıs ayı sonunda durma noktasına gelen kredi akışı karşısında hızla harekete geçerek piyasa mekanizmasının yeniden tesisini sağladık. Bireysel kredilerde israf ve enflasyona yol açan aşırılık giderilirken, ticari krediler süreklilik göstererek üretim kapasitesine katkıda bulunmaktadır." ifadelerini kullandı.
Erkan, reeskont kredisi günlük limitlerinin 10 kat artırılması, Yatırım Taahhütlü Avans Kredisi (YTAK) çerçevesinin yeniden yapılandırılarak 3 yıl boyunca 300 milyar lira limit tahsis edilmesi, sağlanan maliyet avantajları ve erişimin önündeki engellerin kaldırılması gibi uygulamaları anlattı.
Reeskont limitlerinde ilave bir güncellemeyi etki analizleri çerçevesinde değerlendirdiklerini kaydeden Erkan, "İhracat ve yatırım potansiyelinin gelişimi için firmaların finansmana erişimi ile finansman koşullarına destek olmaya devam edeceğiz." dedi.
"İHRACATÇILAR İÇİN ÇOK VERİMLİ BİR TOPLANTI OLDU"
TİM Başkanı Mustafa Gültepe, Hafize Gaye Erkan'ın TCMB Başkanı olarak ihracatçıların sorunları ile yakından ilgilendiğini belirterek, ihracatçıların uzun süre finansmana erişim konusunda sıkıntı yaşadığını anımsattı.
Erkan'ın, Merkez Bankası Başkanı olmasının ardından ihracatçıların finansmana erişimi konusunda çok önemli iyileştirmeler yapıldığını dile getiren Gültepe, şu değerlendirmelerde bulundu:
"Eximbank'ın kredi hacmi genişletildi. Reeskont kredilerinin günlük hacmi 10 kat artırılarak 3 milyar liraya çıkarıldı. Geçen ay reeskont kredilerinde iskonto oranı sabitlendi. Ankara'da üretimi ve ihracatı önceleyen bir ekonomi yönetimi var. Merkez Bankası Başkanı Hafize Gaye Erkan'ın TİM'i ziyaretini de ihracata ve ihracatçıya verdiği önemin bir göstergesi olarak değerlendiriyoruz. Kendisini TİM Sektörler Konseyi Toplantısı'nda ağırladık. İhracatçının güncel sorunları ve 2028'de 375 milyar dolar mal, 200 milyar dolar hizmet ihracatı hedefi doğrultusundaki talep, öneri ve beklentilerimizle ilgili genel bir sunum yaptık. Ardından Sektörler Konseyi üyesi arkadaşlarımız kendi sektörlerine özel talep ve önerilerini anlattı. Bizim için çok verimli bir toplantı oldu. Hafize Gaye Erkan'ın Merkez Bankası Başkanlığı görevine başlaması ile birlikte her konuya istişare ve ortak akılla yaklaşılan çok pozitif bir iklim oluştu. İnanıyorum ki bu iklim, ihracatımızın büyümesine de pozitif yansıyacak."