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Uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşu Fitch Ratings 'in Kıdemli Direktörü ve Türkiye Analisti Erich Arispe Morales , Fitch Ratings'in cuma günü Türkiye'nin kredi notunu "B+"dan "BB-"ye yükselterek not görünümünü durağan olarak belirlemesinin ardından söz konusu karara ilişkin değerlendirmelerde bulundu. Türkiye'de son genel seçimlerin ardından yaşanan politika değişikliği sonrasında ülkenin not görünümünün iyileşmeye başladığını söyleyen Morales, mevcut ekonomik programın siyasi liderlikten destek almaya devam ettiğini dile getirdi.
"İYİLEŞME VAR" Morales, Türkiye ekonomisindeki kırılganlıkların iyileşmeye başlamasıyla kredi notunda da artış olduğunu ifade ederek, uluslararası rezervlerin arttığını ve bu yıl uluslararası rezervlerin temel bileşiminde ve seviyesinde iyileşme olduğunu aktardı.
Uluslararası rezervlerdeki iyileşmenin yanı sıra kur korumalı mevduat ve dolarizasyondaki düşüşe dikkati çeken Morales, "Hükümet ve ekonomi otoritelerinin, sıkı para politikasını sürdüreceğine ilişkin güvenimiz artmış durumda. Bu yıl gayrisafi yurt içi hasılanın (GSYH) yüzde 5'ine yakın olan bütçe açığının önümüzdeki yıl yüzde 3 civarında konsolide edileceğine inanıyoruz. Ayrıca, gelir politikalarının Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasının (TCMB) enflasyonu düşürme süreciyle daha uyumlu olacağını düşünüyoruz. Bu önemli bir nokta çünkü Türkiye'nin önündeki en büyük zorluk enflasyon olmaya devam ediyor. Enflasyon sürdürülebilir bir patikada ve 2021'deki para politikasındaki gevşeme öncesi seviyesine yaklaşmazsa Türkiye için kırılganlık oluşturmaya devam edecek." diye konuştu.
Fitch Ratings'in Kıdemli Direktörü ve Türkiye Analisti Erich Arispe Morales
YÜZDE 21'E GERİLEYECEK Morales, öte yandan, Türkiye'de bu yıl sonu itibarıyla enflasyonun yüzde 43 ve gelecek yıl sonunda yüzde 21'e gerilemesini beklediklerinin altını çizdi. Aylık enflasyon baskılarının yavaşladığını vurgulayan Morales, "Aylık enflasyon baskıları yavaşladıkça, piyasanın enflasyon beklentileri de buna göre ayarlanacaktır. Ancak hanehalkı ve firmaların enflasyon beklentilerindeki düşüşün daha yavaş olacağını öngörüyoruz. Bu beklentilerin gerilemesi son derece önemli ama bu biraz zaman alıyor." dedi. Morales, "Enflasyonun 2025 sonunda yüzde 21 seviyesine gerileyeceğini düşündüğümüzde, bu durum para politikasında kademeli bir gevşeme gerektirecek. Enflasyon beklentileri iyileşecek ancak bu beklentilerin uyumlu olması, sürdürülebilir şekilde düşmesi ve aynı zamanda dolarizasyondaki azalmanın devam etmesi için, para politikasının sıkı kalmaya devam etmesi gerekecek. Bu açıdan, para politikasında 2025'in ilk çeyreğinde kademeli gevşemenin başlayacağını öngörüyoruz." şeklinde konuştu. Türkiye ekonomisinde bu yıl yüzde 3,5 ve 2025'te yüzde 2,8 ile görece düşük bir büyüme öngördüklerini dile getiren Morales, bu büyüme seviyesinin enflasyon beklentilerindeki yeniden dengelenme sürecini desteklediğini anlattı.
Morales, hükümetin iç talep ve dış faktörlerle desteklenen dengeli bir büyüme sağlamaya çalıştığını ifade ederek, "Bu büyümenin aynı zamanda öngörülebilir ve güvenilir bir politika çerçevesiyle desteklenmesi isteniyor. Bizim bakış açımız, bu ayarlamanın da bir parçası olarak daha düşük bir büyüme dönemi görüleceği. Bu kapsamda, 2025, ekonominin iç talep ve tüketim odaklı bir modelden daha net ihracat destekli bir büyüme modeline doğru yeniden dengelenmeye devam ettiği ve enflasyonun yüksek olacağı bir dönem olmaya devam edecek. Bu da dengelenme sürecinin bir parçası." şeklinde konuştu. Mali politikanın dezenflasyon sürecine etkisini de değerlendiren Morales, sözlerini şöyle sürdürdü: "Haziran 2023'te politika değişikliğini gördüğümüzde, maliye politikası vergi önlemleri yoluyla bütçe açığını azaltmak için devreye girdi ancak mali açığı 2023 için öngörülenin altına indirmeyi başardı. Bu yıl maliye politikasının, para politikasındaki sıkılaşmaya önemli bir katkı sağlayamadığını düşünüyoruz. Yılın ilk bölümünde gördüğümüz iç talep direncini, asgari ücret artışı ve maliye politikası ile açıklıyoruz. Hükümetin maliye politikası kapsamında son dönemde aldığı tedbirler göz önünde bulundurulduğunda, önümüzdeki yıl yüzde 2'ye yakın mali konsolidasyonun enflasyondaki düşüş sürecine katkıda bulunacağını öngörüyoruz. İyileştirilmiş mali politika tutarlılığının 2025'te mevcut olmasını bekliyoruz ve bu bizim temel noktamız."
Morales, yerli ve yabancı yatırımcıların mevcut politika duruşunun devam edeceği ve politika geri dönüşü risklerinin azalmasına ilişkin daha fazla kanıt görmek isteyebileceğini ve enflasyon beklentilerinin yeniden çıpalanması ve para politikasının güvenirliğinin oluşturulmasının zaman aldığını sözlerine ekledi. Fitch'in cuma günkü açıklamasında, pozitif reel faiz oranlarının, düşük cari hesap açığı ve döviz korumalı mevduatlardaki kademeli düşüşün muhtemelen dış tamponlardaki iyileşmenin kalıcılığını destekleyeceği belirtilerek, rezervlerin bu yıl sonunda 158 milyar dolara, 2025 sonunda 165 milyar dolara yükselmesinin öngörüldüğü ifade edilmişti. Fitch Ratings , geçen yıl eylülde Türkiye'nin kredi notunu "B" olarak teyit ederken, not görünümünü 2 yılın ardından "negatif"ten "durağan"a çevirmişti. Kredi derecelendirme kuruluşu, bu yıl martta da ülkenin kredi notunu "B"den "B+"ya yükseltirken, not görünümünü "durağan"dan "pozitif"e çıkarmıştı.