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Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB), yıllık enflasyonun gıda ve temel mallar gruplarında yükselirken, diğer ana gruplarda gerilediğini bildirdi.
TCMB Ekim ayı Fiyat Gelişmeleri Raporu'na göre, ekim ayında enflasyon kompozisyonu dikkat edilmesi gereken bir unsur olarak öne çıktı. Bu dönemde geçici arz koşullarına bağlı ve para politikasının görece etki alanı dışında olan işlenmemiş gıda fiyatları, taze meyve ve sebze grubu kaynaklı olarak güçlü bir artış kaydetti. Taze meyve sebze dışı gıda enflasyonu aylık yüzde 1,29 ile daha düşük seyretti.
Para politikasının etkilerinin daha çok hissedildiği temel mal ve talebe duyarlı bazı hizmet kalemlerinde ise daha ılımlı bir görünüm söz konusu oldu. Bu açıdan, manşet enflasyon düzeyi kompozisyondaki bu düzelmeyi tam olarak göstermezken, diğer taraftan ana eğilim göstergeleri daha net bir görünüm sunuyor.
Temel mal grubu aylık fiyat artışı, mevsimsel etkilerin gözlendiği giyim ve ayakkabı alt grubuna bağlı olarak bir önceki aya kıyasla yükselirken diğer alt grupların aylık enflasyon oranları yavaşladı.
Mevsim etkilerinden arındırıldığında, temel mal enflasyonunun eylül ayına kıyasla gerilediği gözlendi. Bu dönemde mevsimsellikten arındırılmış hizmet fiyatlarında da aylık artış yavaşladı. Bu gelişmede, zayıflama kaydeden kira ile lokanta-otel gruplarının yanı sıra eğitim kaynaklı göreli fiyat uyarlamasının tamamlanmasının da etkisiyle diğer hizmetler grubu öne çıktı.
Üretici fiyatları aylık artışı ılımlı seyrini korurken, yıllık üretici enflasyonu gerileme eğilimini sürdürdü. Bu görünüm altında, mevsimsellikten arındırılmış verilerle ana eğilim göstergelerinde yavaşlama kaydedildi.
HİZMET, ENERJİ VE ALKOL-TÜTÜN-ALTIN GRUPLARININ YILLIK TÜKETİCİ ENFLASYONUNA KATKISINDA DÜŞÜŞ OLDU
Mevsimsel etkilerden arındırılmış tüketici fiyat artışı bir önceki aya kıyasla gerilerken, B endeksinin yıllık değişim oranı 1,13 puan azalarak yüzde 47,10, C endeksinin yıllık değişim oranı 1,35 puan düşüşle yüzde 47,75 olarak gerçekleşti.
Yıllık tüketici enflasyonuna katkılar incelendiğinde, bu dönemde hizmet, enerji ve alkol-tütün-altın gruplarının katkıları sırasıyla 0,90, 0,36 ve 0,07 puan düşerken, gıda ve temel mal gruplarının katkıları sırasıyla 0,30 ve 0,23 puan arttı.
Mevsimsellikten arındırılmış verilerde, aylık artışlar bir önceki aya kıyasla C'de daha belirgin olmak üzere B ve C göstergelerinde yavaşlama kaydetti.
Fiyat artışları, B endeksini oluşturan gruplardan hizmet ve temel mallarda gerilerken, işlenmiş gıdada yükseliş gösterdi. TCMB bünyesinde takip edilen göstergeler bir bütün olarak incelediğinde, ekim ayında enflasyonun ana eğiliminin yavaşladığı değerlendirildi.
Hizmet fiyatları ekim ayında yüzde 1,95 artarken, grup yıllık enflasyonu 3,14 puan azalarak yüzde 69,78 düzeyinde gerçekleşti.
Yıllık enflasyon, ulaştırma ve kirada daha belirgin olmak üzere tüm alt gruplarda geriledi. Üçüncü çeyrekte yüzde 4-5 bandında artışlar kaydeden hizmet grubu fiyatlarının ekim ayında mevsimsel unsurların da etkisiyle yavaşlaması dikkati çekti. Bu gelişmede ulaştırma, eğitim, kira ve lokanta-otel alt grupları belirleyici oldu.
Ekim ayında ulaştırma hizmetleri fiyatları, hava yolu ve kara yolu ile şehirlerarası taşımacılık alt kalemlerine bağlı olarak yüzde 2,04 düştü.
Diğer hizmetler grubu enflasyonu, eğitim kaynaklı etkilerin tamamlanmasının da etkisiyle bir önceki aya kıyasla zayıfladı. Kira aylık enflasyonu ekim ayında sözleşme yenileme oranındaki düşüşün yanı sıra sözleşmelerde referans olarak kullanılan artış oranının da gerilemesiyle yavaşlama gösterdi.
Bu dönemde konaklama grubundaki fiyat düşüşünün de desteğiyle lokanta-otel grubu aylık enflasyonu (yüzde 1,44) güç kaybetti. Ekim ayında temel mal grubu yıllık enflasyonu 0,19 puan yükselerek yüzde 28,45 oldu.
Aylık enflasyon giyim ve ayakkabı grubunda bir önceki aya kıyasla güçlenirken, diğer alt gruplarda yavaşladı. Dayanıklı mallarda aylık fiyat artışı yüzde 0,70 ile düşük seyretse de alt kırılım bazında farklılaşan bir görünüm sergiledi. Bu dönemde mobilya, tüketici elektroniği ve beyaz eşya kalemlerinde fiyat artışları izlenirken, otomobillerdeki düşüş olumsuz bir görünümün önüne geçti.
Yeni sezona geçişle birlikte giyim ve ayakkabı fiyatları yüzde 14,60 yükselirken, alt grup yıllık enflasyonu 0,70 puan artışla yüzde 30,63 olarak gerçekleşti.
Diğer temel mallar alt grubunda ilaç referans avro kurundaki güncellemenin etkileri hissedilse de fiyatlar yüzde 1,24 artışla bir önceki aya kıyasla bir miktar yavaşladı.
ULUSLARARASI ENERJİ FİYATLARINDAKİ GELİŞMELERİN DE ETKİSİYLE KATI YAKIT, AKARYAKIT VE TÜP GAZ FİYATLARI ARTTI
Enerji fiyatları ekim ayında yüzde 1,35 artarken, grup yıllık enflasyonu 3,57 puan düşerek yüzde 59,37 oldu. Uluslararası enerji fiyatlarındaki gelişmelerin de etkisiyle katı yakıt, akaryakıt ve tüp gaz fiyatları sırasıyla aylık bazda yüzde 6, yüzde 1,84 ve yüzde 1,77 arttı. Ekim ayında tüketici enflasyonu üzerinde gıda fiyatlarının etkisi öne çıktı.
Gıda ve alkolsüz içecekler grubu fiyatları bu dönemde yüzde 4,33 artış kaydederken, yıllık enflasyon 1,56 puan yükselerek yüzde 45,28 oldu. Yıllık enflasyon işlenmemiş gıda grubunda 3,71 puan yükselerek yüzde 47,05, işlenmiş gıda grubunda 0,33 puan gerileyerek yüzde 43,72 oldu.
Ekim ayında işlenmemiş gıda fiyatları (yüzde 6,75), taze meyve ve sebze (yüzde 19,20) kaynaklı olarak yüksek bir artış gösterdi.
İşlenmiş gıda fiyatları yüzde 2,22 artışla bir önceki aya kıyasla hızlanırken, tahıl fiyatlarının sürüklediği ekmek-tahıllar grubu yüzde 3,05 oranındaki fiyat artışıyla öne çıktı.
Ekim ayında yüzde 1,83 artan diğer işlenmiş gıdada ise ayçiçek yağı ile çay-kahve alt kalemleri etkili oldu.
Yurt içi üretici fiyatları ekim ayında yüzde 1,29 artış kaydederken, yıllık enflasyon 0,85 puan düşerek yüzde 32,24'e geriledi. Bu dönemde ana sanayi grupları itibarıyla, dayanıklı tüketim malı grubundaki fiyat artışı yüzde 2,82 olurken, sermaye malı (yüzde 0,67) ve enerji (yüzde -0,56) manşet oranı sınırlayan gruplar olarak öne çıktı.
Sektörler bazında incelendiğinde, diğer mamul eşyalar, temel eczacılık ürünleri, metal cevherleri, içecekler, mobilya, deri ve ilgili ürünler ile giyim eşyası, fiyat artışları ile öne çıkan alt gruplar oldu.