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Kadir Has Üniversitesi Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Öğretim Üyesi Prof. Dr. Mustafa Aydın koordinasyonunda, Prof. Dr. Sinem Açıkmeşe, Prof. Dr. Mitat Çelikpala, Soli Özel, Dr. Cihan Dizdaroğlu ile M. Gökcan Kösen tarafından hazırlanan çalışmanın saha araştırması, 27 Mayıs-20 Haziran 2019 tarihlerinde Türkiye 'nin nüfus yapısını temsil eden 26 ilde 18 yaş üstü bin kişi ile yüz yüze görüşülerek gerçekleştirildi. Saha araştırmasında Türkiye halkına ülkenin dış politika sına yön veren gelişmeler hakkında sorular soruldu, hükümete yön verecek tercihleri ortaya çıkartıldı.
YÜZDE 44 S-400 İSTİYOR Araştırma kapsamında sorulan, "Sizce Türk Dış Politika sının en önemli sorunu nedir?" sorusuna, katılımcıların yüzde 20.6'sı AB D ile ilişkiler yanıtını verirken, yüzde 18,3'ü "Sınır ötesi terör" yanıtını verdi. Geçtiğimiz yıl yüzde 26,0 ile en önemli sorun olarak görülen Suriye iş savaşı ise, bu yıl gerileyerek, üçüncü sıraya indi. Öte yandan, iki ülke ilişkilerinde son dönemde en önemli gerilim unsuru olarak öne çıkan Türkiye 'nin Rusya 'da S-400 füzeleri alımı konusunda, ankete katılanların yüzde 44'ü NATO 'nun rahatsızlığı ve ABD'nin yaptırım tehditlerine rağmen, füzelerin alınması gerektiğini belirtirken, yüzde 24,9'u alınmaması gerektiğini ifade etti.
"CUMHURBAŞKANI TÜRK DIŞ POLİTİKASININ BELİRLEYİCİSİ OLARAK KABUL EDİLİYOR" Dış politika da temel belirleyici ve yürütücü kurum Cumhurbaşkanı olarak görülüyor. "Sizce Türkiye 'de dış politikanın yapım sürecine en çok hangi kişiler etkide bulunuyor" sorusuna geçtiğimiz yıl yüzde 68,8'lik bir kesim Cumhurbaşkanı yanıtını verirken, bu yıl bu oranın yüzde 72,2'ye ulaştığı tespit edildi. Öte yandan, "dış politikanın yapım sürecine en çok etki eden kurum hangisidir" sorusuna, katılımcıların yüzde 62,9 ile Cumhurbaşkanlığı'nın önünde Dışişleri Bakanlığı cevab ını verdiler.
"TÜRKİYE BİR İSLAM ÜLKESİDİR" Araştırmaya göre, 'Türkiye bir İslam ülkesidir' diyenlerin oranı yüzde 46 ile bu yıl da ilk sırada yer aldı. Aynı kategoride Türkiye'yi Avrupa ülkesi olarak tanımlayanların oranı ise yüzde 17,6 olurken, Orta Doğu ülkesi olarak tanımlayanların oranı ise yüzde 16,3 oldu. Bu yıl ilk kez sunulan, "Türkiye kendine has özellikleri olan bir ülkedir" yanıtını verenlerin oranı ise yüzde 28,5 oldu.
BU YIL DA EN YAKIN DOST AZERBAYCAN, EN BÜYÜK TEHDİT ABD "Türkiye 'nin en yakın dostu hangi ülkedir?" sorusuna katılımcılar geçen yıla göre yüzde 10,6'lık artışla yine "Azerbaycan " yanıtını verdi. Geçtiğimiz yıl yüzde 59'luk bir kesim Azerbaycan'ı "en yakın dost ülke" olarak nitelendirirken, bu yıl ankete katılanların yüzde 65,3'ü en yakın dostumuz Azerbaycan dedi. Azerbaycan'ı azalan oranlarda KKTC ve Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetlerinin takip ediyor olması bu yılın dikkat çeken sonuçlarından biri oldu.
Ayrıca Türkiye için tehdit olarak görülen ülkeler arasında ise geçen yıl katılımcıların yüzde 60,2'si AB D yanıtını verirken, bu yıl katılımcıların yüzde 81,3'ü ABD'yi Türkiye için tehdit olarak gördüğünü belirtti. Benzer şekilde geçtiğimiz yıl katılımcıların yüzde 54,4'ü İsrail'i tehdit olarak görürken, bu yıl ise katılımcıların yüzde 70,8 ile yine İsrail'i ikinci sıraya yerleştirdi.
TÜRKİYE ABD'YE GÜVENMİYOR AB D ile Türkiye arasındaki ilişki sorusuna geçen yıl olduğu gibi bu yıl da katılımcıların yüzde 39,4'ü 'güvenilmez ülke' yanıtını verirken, yüzde 22,6'sı 'sömürgeci ülke' olarak değerlendiriyor. Aynı kategoride Türkiye ile ABD arasındaki en önemli sorun nedir sorusuna, katılımcıların yüzde 60,5'i 'terörle mücadele' derken, yüzde 37,3'ü 'ABD'nin PYD'ye destek vermesi' diyor.
"TÜRKİYE 5-10 YIL İÇERİSİNDE AB'YE ÜYE OLUR" Araştırmada dikkat çeken bir diğer unsur Türkiye halkının AB'ye üyelik sürecine verdiği destekte bu yıl da artış yaşanması. Geçtiğimiz yıl 'Türkiye'nin Avrupa Birliği 'ne üye olmasını destekliyor musunuz?' sorusuna katılımcıların yüzde 55,1'i evet derken, bu yıl aynı soruya yüzde 61,1 oranında evet yanıtı geldi. Aynı kategoride Türkiye'nin AB üyeliği için öngörülen zamanı, katılımcıların yüzde 20,3'ü '5-10 yıl' olarak değerlendirdi.
Türkiye AB ilişkilerinin siyasi açıdan değerlendirildiği kategoride, ankete katılan AKP seçmenlerinin yüzde 58,5'i, CHP seçmeninin yüzde 73,7'si ve MHP seçmeninin yüzde 60,2'si Türkiye'nin Avrupa Birliği'ne üye olmasını desteklediği ortaya çıkıyor. Ne Türkiye'nin ne de Avrupa Birliği'nin üyelik müzakerelerini sona erdirmeyeceğine inanan kamuoyu, yüzde 53'lük bir oranla müzakerelere devam edilmesi gerektiği inancını ortaya koydu.
"DAHA ETKİLİ DIŞ POLİTİKA İÇİN SİYASİ İLİŞKİLER KUVVETLENDİRİLMELİ" Anket kapsamında sorulan "daha etkili bir Türk Dış Politika sı için hangisine ağırlık verilmelidir?" sorusuna geçtiğimiz yıl katılımcıların yüzde 52,6'sı "diğer ülkelerle siyasi ilişkilerin kuvvetlendirilmesi" yanıtını verirken, bu yıl yüzde 62'si aynı yanıtı verdi. Ayrıca bu yıl katılımcıların yüzde 33,9'u da "diğer ülkelerle ekonomik ilişkilerin kuvvetlendirilmesi" gerektiğini vurguladı.
NATO ÜYELİĞİ DEVAM ETMELİ Ankete katılanları yüzde 60,8'i Türkiye 'nin NATO üyeliğinin devam etmesini gerektiğini belirtirken, yüzde 50,3'ü üyeliğin Türkiye'ye katkı sağladığını, yüzde 69,6'sı "olası bir saldırıda Türkiye'nin yardımına gelecek olması"nı esas katkı olarak gördüğünü belirtti.
TÜRKİYE- YUNANİSTAN ARASINDAKİ EN ÖNEMLİ SORUN: KIBRIS Son dönemde yeniden gerginliklerle gündeme gelen Türkiye-Yunanistan ilişkilerinde, iki ülke arasındaki en önemli sorunun Kıbrıs anlaşmazlığı olduğu tespit edildi. 'Sizce Türkiye ve Yunanistan arasında sorun var mı' sorusuna katılımcıların yüzde 30,3'ü evet cevab ını verirken, "Türkiye ve Yunanistan arasındaki en önemli sorun nedir" sorusuna da katılımcıların yüzde 55'i 'Kıbrıs anlaşmazlığı', yüzde 53,8'i'Ege adalarının silahlandırılması' yanıtını verdir.
Araştırmada bu yıl ilk kez yüzde 41,7'lik bir kesim Kıbrıs sorununun ancak "KKTC'nin Türkiye'ye bağlanması" temelinde çözülebileceğini belirtirken, iki toplumlu-iki kesimli federal devlete destek Türk halkı arasında yüzde 30,1'e düştü.
RUSYA İLE STRATEJİK ORTAKLIK "Rusya ile Türkiye arasındaki ilişkileri nasıl tanımlarsınız" sorusunda 'stratejik ortaklık vardır' olarak yanıt verenlerin oranı yüzde 26,1 iken, Türkiye ile Rusya arasındaki en önemli işbirliği alanları nedir sorusuna katılımcıların yüzde 34,3'ü enerji alanındaki işbirliği cevab ını veriyor. Aynı kategoride, ticari-ekonomik işbirliği yanıtını verenlerin oranı ise yüzde 27,9 olduğu ortaya çıkıyor. Öte yandan, katılımcıların kendilerine sunulan ilişki alanlarının hiç birinde yüzde 50'nin üzerinde bir oranla iki ülke arasında işbirliği olduğunu belirtmemiş olmaları da dikkat çekiyor.
"TÜRKİYE, SURİYE POLİTİKASINDA TARAFSIZ KALMALI" Ankete katılanların yüzde 42,1'i Türkiye'nin Suriye'ye yönelik izlemesi gereken politikanın tarafsız olması ve herhangi bir müdahalede bulunulmaması gerektiğini belirtirken, yüzde 13,3'ü ise sadece sığınmacılara yardımcı olması gerektiğini vurguluyor.
Buna bağlı olarak Türkiye'nin sığınmacılara karşı izlenmesi gereken politikanın ne olması gerektiği sorusuna, katılımcıların yüzde 57,6'sı sığınmacı alımına son verilmeli yanıtını verdi. Suriyeli sığınmacılardan memnuniyet sorusuna geçtiğimiz yıl katılımcıların yüzde 13,6'sı memnun olduğunu belirtirken, bu yıl sadece yüzde 7'si memnunum diyor.