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Birçok ülkede yürürlükte olan sokağa çıkma kısıtlamalarının gevşetilmesine yönelik bazı adımlar atılırken, kısıtlamaların çok hızlı kaldırılması halinde koronavirüs te ikinci dalga nın başlamasından endişe ediliyor.
BBC Türkçe'de yer alan habere göre, kaygıların odağında ise kısıtlamaların kaldırılmasının ardından pandeminin daha da güçlenerek tekrar belirmesi, yayılımının artması, sağlık sistemlerini sıkıntıya sokması ve tekrar kısıtlamaların getirilmesi yer alıyor.
Sağlık Bakanı Fahrettin Koca, geçen hafta içerisinde düzenlediği basın toplantısında, bir gazetecinin ikinci dalga olup olmayacağına dair sorusuna, tedbirlere uyulması halinde ikinci bir dalganın beklenmediğini söyleyerek yanıt verdi.
Peki son dönemde kısıtlamaların hafifletilmesi konusunda sıkça dile getirilen ikinci dalga ne anlama geliyor ve nasıl bir risk teşkil ediyor?
İKİNCİ DALGA NEDİR? Pandemiler, insanların büyük bir kısmının bağışıklığının olmadığı yeni patojen, yani hastalık mikroplarından kaynaklanır. İnsanların bu virüslere bağışıklığının olmaması küresel çapta salgınların olmasına yol açar. Pandemi, dünya genelinde çok sık rastlanan bir durum değil. Bu tarz hastalıklar arasında grip, pandemi etkisi yaratma açısından diğer hastalıklardan farklı bir yerde duruyor. Yeni bir grip mikrobu ortaya çıktığında dünya genelinde çok sayıda insanı etkiler ve daha sonra etkilenen kişi sayısı hızla geriler. Birkaç ay sonra ise tekrar ortaya çıkar ve yine çok sayıda insanı etkilemeye başlar. Bu durum, dünya nüfusunun büyük bir bölümü bu virüse karşı bağışıklık kazanana kadar devam eder.
BİRİNCİ DALGANIN HAFİFLEMESİNİN NEDENLERİ NELER? Grip kaynaklı pandemilerde yayılma hızı, mevsim geçişlerine göre değişiklik gösterebilir. Yaz aylarında kuzey yarıkürenin ısınmasıyla birlikte, salgın da kışa geçiş yapan güney yarıkürede hızlanabilir veya bunun tam tersi görülebilir. Ayrıca dünya genelinde birçok kişinin etkilenmesinden dolayı bağışıklık kazanan kişilerin sayısı artar ve "sürü bağışıklığının" oluşması yayılım hızını düşürür.
Covid-19 hastalığına yol açan koronavirüs salgını sırasında ise birçok ülke bugüne kadar görülmemiş düzeylerde kısıtlayıcı önlemler almak durumunda kaldı. Sosyal mesafe kuralları ve sokağa çıkma ile seyahat kısıtlamaları uygulayarak yayılımın hızını düşürmeyi hedefleyen devletlerin aldığı bu önemlerin belli bir ölçüde başarıya ulaştığı ve virüsün yayılımının hız kestiği görülüyor.
VİRÜS NASIL GERİ DÖNEBİLİR? Bu, birkaç şekilde olabilir Grip söz konusu olduğunda havaların soğuması virüsün tekrar canlanmasına katkıda bulunur. Aynısı koronavirüs için de geçerli olabilir. Bir başka olasılık da virüsün mutasyona uğraması. Grip virüsü, sürekli olarak mutasyona uğrayan bir patojen.
1918 yılında İspanyol Gribi salgını sırasında sonbahar aylarında ikinci bir dalga yaşandı ve ikinci dalga da daha fazla insan hayatını kaybetti. Bazı araştırmacılar, bunun nedeninin virüsün mutasyona uğraması ve bu nedenle hastalığı geçiren kişilerin bağışıklığını kaybetmesi olabileceğini söylüyor. Bir başka önemli etken de virüsün daha önce görülmediği ve haliyle bağışıklık kazanmamış olan topluluklar arasında yayılmaya başlama olasılığı. Tüm bunlara ek olarak, Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (WHO ) 24 Nisan'da yaptığı açıklamada, Covid-19 geçiren ve vücutlarına bu hastalığa karşı antikor bulunan kişilerin ikinci bir enfeksiyon dalgasından etkilenip etkilenmeyeceklerine dair herhangi bir bulgu olmadığını ifade etti.
SARS'TA NEDEN İKİNCİ DALGA OLMADI? Asya'da 2002-2003 yıllarında görülen şiddetli akut solunum yolu sendromu (SARS ) salgını, pandemi boyutlarına ulaşmamıştı. Her ne kadar Covid-19 gibi bir koronavirüs türünden kaynaklansa da, SARS'ın bulaşıcılığı son dönemdeki virüs kadar yüksek değildi. SARS'ın yayılımı, insanların enfekte hastaların vücut sıvılarıyla temas ettiği hastane gibi ortamlarla sınırlı kalmıştı. Ebola da insanlara yeni olan bir başka patojenden kaynaklanmıştı. Afrika 'da dönem dönem Ebola salgını görülmüş olsa da Covid-19 gibi dünyanın farklı yerlerine yayılmadı.
KORONAVİRÜSTE İKİNCİ DALGA GÖRÜLME OLASILIĞI NE KADAR YÜKSEK? Çin 'den gelen bazı işaretler, koronavirüs salgınında ikinci dalga görülme riskinin bulunduğuna işaret ediyor. Çin'de virüs nedeniyle kısıtlamaların uygulandığı ancak daha sonra bu kısıtlamaların kaldırılmaya başlandığı bazı yerlerde, Mart ayında tekrar yeni vakaların görülmesi üzerine kısıtlamalar yeniden uygulamaya sokuldu.
Dünyanın birçok yerinde mevcut yayılımının hızının azaltılması için çabalar devam ediyor. Uygulanan sokağa çıkma ve seyahat kısıtlamalarıyla virüsün yayılımının kontrol altına alınmasına yardımcı olsa da, kısıtlamaların kaldırılması hastalığı geçirmemiş olan birçok kişiyi virüsün bulaşması riskiyle karşı karşıya bırakıyor ve ikinci bir dalganın ortaya çıkması riskini doğuruyor.
İKİNCİ DALGANIN ORTAYA ÇIKMASI NASIL ENGELLENİR? WHO , seyahat ve sokağa çıkma üzerindeki kısıtlamaların kademeli olarak kaldırılmasını tavsiye ediyor. Kısıtlamaların hafifletilmesiyle ilgili atılacak adımların ardından bunların etkilerinin takip edilmesi öneriliyor. Uzmanlar ise kısıtlamaların kaldırılmasının ötesinde salgının kontrol altına alınmasında test sayısının artırılması ve temas takibinin sıkı bir şekilde yapılması gerektiğini söylüyor.
Bu yönteme göre virüs taşıyan kişiler tespit edildikten sonra karantina altına alınması ve temas kurduğu kişilerin de belirlendikten sonra bu kişilere de test yapılıp, pozitif çıkmaları halinde izole edilmesi öngörülüyor. Uzmanlar, bir noktadan sonra virüse yakalanan kişi sayısının artması veya aşının geliştirilmesiyle birlikte sürü bağışıklığının da ortaya çıkacağını ifade ediyor.