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9 Mayıs son seçim anketi ! Bugün seçim olsa hangi parti ne kadar alır ? Partilerin son oy oranları dağılımı vatandaşlar tarafından merak ediliyor. Anket şirketleri sık sık seçim anketi yaparak kamuoyunun nabzını tutuyor. Anketler ise seçimler öncesinde vatandaşların partilere olan eğilimlerini gösteriyor. Peki; son seçim anketleri nasıl? Bugün seçim olsa hangi parti ne kadar oy alır? Sabah Gazetesi yazarı Mahmut Övür; bugünkü yazısında Optimar Araştırma'nın son anket sonucunu açıkladı.
İŞTE SON SEÇİM ANKETİ!
Sabah Gazetesi yazarı Mahmut Övür'ün yazısında yer alan son seçim anketi:
CHP, siyasi genetiği gereği -77'deki Ecevit dönemi hariç- hiçbir zaman bu toplumla buluşamadı. Bu gerçeği CHP'liler de biliyorlar ama değiştiremiyorlar. Bugün de durumları farklı değil. Son yerel seçimde İstanbul dahil büyükşehirleri almalarına rağmen, bırakın oy arttırmayı bugün seçim olsa CHP parti olarak en son seçimde aldığı oyu bile alamıyor.
Önümde Hilmi Daşdemir'in başında olduğu Optimar Araştırma'nın son anketi var. Rakamlar şöyle; AK Parti yüzde 42.8, CHP yüzde 23.4, MHP yüzde 10.2, HDP yüzde 9.5, İYİ Parti yüzde 9.1. Diğer partiler içinde yüzde biri geçen tek parti Babacan'ın partisi, yüzde 1.3...
AK Parti ile CHP arasındaki fark hala 20 puan civarında. CHP darbeseverliğe, Türkiye karşıtlığına ağırlık vereceğine buraya bakmalı.
YAZININ TAMAMI İÇİN TIKLAYINIZ
Seçim anketlerinin doğuşu
Seçimler için Türkiye genelinde anket yapmak, 1980 darbesi sonrasında ortaya çıktı. Araştırma şirketleri, 80 öncesinde Türkiye'de yatırım yapmayı planlayan uluslararası şirketler için ürün ve pazar araştırmaları yapıyordu. Türkiye ekonomisinin hızla geliştiği bu yıllarda, yabancı şirketler, Avrupa'nın en büyük pazarlarından biri olan Türkiye'de satışa sunacakları gıda maddeleri, temizlik ürünleri ve ilaçlar için art arda piyasa araştırması yapıyordu. "Siyasi içerikli" anket çalışmaları ise ilk kez Turgut Özal'ın başbakanlığı döneminde ortaya çıktı. Turgut Özal'ın iktidarını test ettiği 1987 seçimleri ile popüler hale gelen seçim araştırmaları, Refah Partisi'nin İstanbul ve Ankara belediyelerini aldığı 1994 yerel seçimleri ile patlama yaptı.
Bugün Tarhan Erdem ve Adil Gür ile anılan araştırma sektörünün o dönemdeki "talihlisi" daha sonra CHP saflarından siyasete atılacak Bülent Tanla idi. Tanla, 87 seçimlerinde ANAP'ın, 91 seçimlerinde ise DYP'nin alacağı oy oranlarını tamı tamına tahmin etmiş ve haklı bir ün kazanmıştı. Seçim anketleri, o yıllardan bugüne yalnızca Türkiye demokrasisinin vazgeçilmez parçalarından biri olmakla kalmadı, aynı zamanda 8 bin kişiye istihdam yaratan ve yılda ortalama yüzde 20 büyüyerek 150 milyon dolarlık büyüklüğe ulaşan bir sektör haline de geldi.
HANGİ ŞİRKET KİMİN?
KONDA: Tarhan Erdem'in sahibi olduğu şirket. Yönetiminde Tarhan Erdem ve Bekir Ağırdır bulunuyor.
A&G: 1995 yılında Adil Gür tarafından kuruldu. Yıldızı 29 Mart seçimlerinde parladı.
ESTİMA: Bülent Tanla'nın oğlu Hasan Tanla'nın başında bulunduğu şirketin önceki ismi "Piar Gallup" idi.
ANAR: Şu an Devlet Bakanı olan Beşir Atalay tarafından 1998 yılında Ankara'da kuruldu. Daha çok AKP için anket çalışmaları yapıyor.
DENGE: Başbakan Erdoğan için özel anket çalışmaları yapan bir şirket.
POLLMARK: ANAR'dan ayrılan, 2003 yılında kurulan ve AKP'ye yakınlığı ile bilinen bir kamuoyu araştırma şirketi.
METROPOL: Prof. Özer Sencer tarafından kuruldu. Son 2 yıldır faaliyet gösteriyor.
GENAR: 1997 yılından beri faaliyet gösteriyor. Yönetiminde Hüsrev Hatemi, Nilüfer Narlı ve Arus Yumul gibi önemli araştırmacılar bulunuyor.
VERSO: Sahibi Erhan Göksel. 1985'ten beri bu işi yapıyor.
SONAR: 1999 seçimlerinde MHP'den milletvekili adayı olan Hakan Bayrakçı'nın şirketi.