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ABD yönetiminin, Türkiye'nin savunma sanayisini hedef alan yaptırımlarının Ankara 'yı milli teknoloji hamlesinden vazgeçirmesi beklenmezken, Washington'ın "büyük güç rekabeti" stratejisi kapsamında da sürdürülebilir görünmüyor.
ABD'nin Hasımlarıyla Yaptırımlar Yoluyla Mücadele Yasası (CAATSA ) kapsamında, Rusya'dan S-400 hava savunma sistemlerinin alımı nedeniyle Türkiye'ye yönelik neredeyse 3 yıldır masada tutulan yaptırımlar nihayet açıklandı.
ABD Hazine Bakanlığı, Cumhurbaşkanlığı Savunma Sanayii Başkanlığını (SSB) ve Savunma Sanayii Başkanı İsmail Demir ile üst düzey yetkililerinden Mustafa Alper Deniz, Serhat Gençoğlu ve Faruk Yiğit'i yaptırım listesine ekledi.
Buna göre, SSB'ye ABD 'nin ürün ve teknolojileri için ihracat lisansı ve yetkilerinin verilmesi, SSB'nin ABD finans kuruluşlarından 12 ay vade ile 10 milyon doları aşan kredi ve borç alması yasaklandı.
SSB'nin uluslararası mali kuruluşundan kredi ve borç almasının engelleneceği ve ismi paylaşılan Savunma Sanayii yetkililerinin ABD'ye girişine de izin verilmeyeceği ifade edildi.
Gündemdeki etkisi henüz çok sıcak olan CAATSA kapsamındaki bu yaptırımların arka planı, uygulanma süreci ve Türk-Amerikan ilişkilerinin seyrine etkisi merak ediliyor.
CAATSA VE KAPSAMI ABD uzun zamandır Çin, İran, Rusya ve Kuzey Kore'yi Amerikan ulusal güvenliğine tehdit teşkil eden ulus devletler olarak tanımlıyor.
Ancak ABD hasımlarına yaptırım uygulamak üzere bir çerçeve yasa olan CAATSA yasası, hasım olarak Çin'i zikretmeyip sadece Rusya, İran ve Kuzey Kore'ye yönelik yaptırımları içeriyor.
Bu ülkelerin savunma şirketlerini ve istihbarat kurumlarını hedef alan yasanın İkinci Bölümü Rusya yaptırımlarına yer veriyor.
3 bin 364 sayfalık yasanın Rusya ile ilgili kısmının 231'inci maddesi Rus savunma ve istihbarat sektörü ile "önemli mali işlem" yapan kişi ve kurumlara da yaptırım uygulanmasını öngörüyor.
2 Ağustos 2017'de Kongrede kabul edilen CAATSA 'da "ikincil yaptırımlar" olarak da anılan bu yaptırımlar şöyle sıralanıyor:
"1- Yaptırım kapsamına alınan kişi ve kurumlara ihracat ithalat banka sı desteğinin kesilmesi
2- Mal ve teknoloji ihracatı ruhsatı verilmemesi
3- ABD mali kuruluşlarından kredi tedarik edilmemesi
4- Uluslararası mali kuruluşlardan kredi verilmemesi
5- Mali kurumlara ABD Merkez Bankası ile doğrudan alışveriş yapma izni verilmemesi
6- Yaptırım kapsamına alınan kişi ya da kurumlarla ihale ya da sözleşme yapılmaması
7- Döviz üzerinden işlem yapılmasının yasaklanması
8- Mali kurumlar ve bankalar arasında ödeme ya da kredi transferlerinin yasaklanması
9- Yaptırım kapsamına alınan kişi ya da kurumların ABD topraklarında gayrimenkul sahibi olmasının yasaklanması
10- ABD kişi ve kurumlarının yaptırım kapsamına alınan kişi ya da kurumlardan sermaye ya da borç alışverişinin yasaklanması
11- Yaptırım kapsamına alınan kişilere ABD'ye giriş yasağı
12- Yaptırım kapsamına alınan kişi ve kurumlara benzer işlevi olan üst düzey görevlilere de yaptırım uygulanması."
Yasanın ilgili maddesine göre ABD Başkanı, bu 12 maddeden en az 5'ini seçip uygulamakla yükümlü.
CAATSA'NIN İKİNCİL YAPTIRIMLARI İLK KEZ VE BİR NATO MÜTTEFİKİNE UYGULANDI Bu yasa sadece Türkiye için değil başta Almanya ve Avusturya olmak üzere Rusya ile enerji boru hatları konusunda iş birliği yapan Avrupa ülkeleri için de risk teşkil ediyor.
Rusya'dan 5,48 milyar dolarlık S-400 anlaşması yapan Hindistan ve Moskova ile savunma iş birliği yapan Endonezya da CAATSA yaptırımlarına maruz kalması beklenen ülkeler listesinde.
Ancak CAATSA kapsamındaki bu yaptırımlar ilk kez uygulanmasının yanı sıra bir NATO müttefiki olan Türkiye'ye uygulanmasıyla tarihe geçti.
CAATSA üzerinden doğrudan Türkiye'ye yaptırım uygulanamazdı. ABD Kongresinin Türkiye'nin yaptığı bir iş veya anlaşmanın bu yasa kapsamına girdiğini belirtmesi gerekiyordu.
ABD Kongresi, ilk kez 2018 savunma bütçesine ilişkin "Ulusal Savunma Yetkilendirme Yasası'nda" (NDAA ), Türkiye'nin Rusya'dan S-400 alma niyetini gündeme getirdi ve Savunma Bakanlığından bu konuda rapor istedi.
Bakanlık, raporu Kasım 2018'de Kongreye sundu ve raporda, Türkiye'nin S-400 alımının kesin olduğu, bunun ABD-Türkiye ikili ilişkilerine ve Türkiye'nin NATO içindeki rolüne olumsuz etkisinin kaçınılmaz olacağı kaydedildi.
Kongre, buna karşılık 2019 yılı savunma bütçesine ilişkin NDAA yasasında Türkiye'ye F-35 uçaklarının verilmesine kısıtlama getirdi.
2020 bütçesine ilişkin NDAA yasasında ise Türkiye'nin Temmuz 2019'da S-400 sistemlerini teslim alması CAATSA kapsamındaki Rus savunma ve istihbarat sektörü ile yapılan "önemli mali işlem" olarak tanımlandı ve Başkan'ın 180 gün içinde Türkiye'ye CAATSA yaptırımlarından en az beşini uygulaması talebinde bulunuldu.
CAATSA yasası kapsamında ABD Dışişleri Bakanlığı 27 Ekim 2017'de yaptırım kapsamına alınan Rus savunma ve istihbarat şirketlerinin listesini yayımlamıştı ve listede S-400 sistemlerini üreten Almaz-Antey Hava ve Uzay Savunma Şirketi ikinci sırada yer alıyordu.
Dolayısıyla Türkiye'ye yönelik CAATSA yaptırımları, aslında sözlü olarak 2017'den beri dile getirilse de ilk kez Aralık 2019'da yasalaşan 2020 Ulusal Savunma Yetkilendirme Yasası'nda resmi olarak yer aldı.
TRUMP, TÜRKİYE KONUSUNDA KONGREYE DİRENDİ CAATSA yaptırımları riski Türk-Amerikan ilişkileri açısından Demokles'in kılıcı niteliğindeydi.
ABD Başkanı Donald Trump , CAATSA yasasını imzalarken, bu yasada çok büyük hataların yer aldığını vurgulamıştı ancak yasa Kongreden çok büyük bir çoğunlukla geçtiği için Trump'ın yasayı imzalamaktan başka seçeneği yoktu.
Trump, Washington'daki müesses nizamın aksine Türkiye'nin S-400 konusundaki pozisyonuna da destek veren açıklamalar yaptı, Kongrenin baskılarına rağmen Ankara 'ya yönelik CAATSA yaptırımlarını bekletti.
Öyle ki Trump, Haziran 2019'da Japonya'daki G-20 Zirvesi'nde selefi Barack Obama'nın Patriotları satmamasının Ankara'ya başka seçenek bırakmadığını ifade etmiş ve Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan'a destek açıklamasında bulunmuştu.
Ancak Trump'a rağmen CAATSA yaptırımları özellikle Kongre tarafından Türkiye'nin bölgede kendi çıkarlarına öncelik verdiği her adımında da "bir tehdit unsuru olarak" gündeme getirildi.
Kongre, 2020 NDAA yasasında olduğu gibi geçen hafta kabul edilen 2021 NDAA tasarısında da Trump'ın tasarının yasalaşmasından sonra 30 gün içinde Türkiye'ye yaptırım uygulamasını talep ediyor.
NDAA yasalarında yer alan bu talepler, aslında gerek dış politikada gerek savunma sanayisinde bağımsızlaşmaya başlayan Türkiye'ye yönelik gözdağının yasalaşmış somut bir ifadesiydi.
Bu süreçte gerek Suriye'nin kuzeyindeki YPG/PYD terör unsurlarına yönelik askeri operasyonları gerek Akdeniz'deki enerji tartışmalarındaki kararlı tutumu Türkiye'yi Amerikan Kongresinin hedefine koymuştu.
Türkiye'nin Azerbaycan'ın yaklaşık 30 yıldır Ermenistan işgalinde bulunan topraklarını geri almaya yönelik mücadelesine verdiği destek de ABD Kongresini ve Washington'daki Türkiye karşıtı lobileri oldukça rahatsız etti.
TEHDİT BİTTİ, PAZARLIK BAŞLAYACAK 20 Ocak'ta yapılacak törenle başkanlığı ABD 'nin seçilmiş başkanı Joe Biden'a devredecek olan Trump, 2021 NDAA yasasını imzalamadan, 2020 NDAA yasasını baz alarak Türkiye'ye yaptırım uyguladı.
Trump'ın Beyaz Saray'daki koltuğunu bırakmadan önce söz konusu yaptırım kararlarını alması, Biden'ın elindeki Türkiye'ye yönelik önemli bir kartı almış oldu.
CAATSA 'daki yaptırımların, yeni dönemde bölgeye yönelik politikası büyük bir soru işareti olan Biden'a bırakılması halinde, uygulanma şekli veya seçeneklerin neler olabileceği belirsizliğini koruyor.
Trump'ın bu adımı atması, gerek bundan sonra Kongrenin gerek göreve geldikten sonra Biden'ın Türkiye'ye tekrar bir yaptırım uygulama durumunu oldukça zorlaştırıyor.
Bu adım ayrıca Biden hükümeti ile Türkiye'ye uygulanmış olan yaptırımların kaldırılmasına yönelik pazarlık zemini oluşturuyor.
Bu nedenle iki ülke ilişkilerinin bu yaptırımlarla ciddi bir yara alacağını söylemek için henüz erken olsa da bu süreç, CAATSA tehdidinin önemli ölçüde ortadan kalkmış olması ve Ankara ile Washington arasında yeni bir pazarlık zemini oluşturması bakımından önem arz ediyor.
Yıllardır büyük güç rekabetine hazırlanan ve Ulusal Güvenlik ve Savunma Strateji Belgelerinde, Çin ve Rusya ile rekabeti öncelikli tehdit olarak tanımlayan ABD'nin, Türkiye gibi bir ülke ile savunma sanayisi iş birliğine yönelik kısıtlamalar getirmesi uzun dönemde sürdürülebilir değil.
YAPTIRIMLARIN UZUN DÖNEMDE KAYBEDENİ TÜRKİYE'NİN SAVUNMA SANAYİSİ DEĞİL Açıklanan yaptırımların kısa dönem etkisinin boyutlarını, Türkiye'nin savunma sanayisinde kendi kendine yeterlilik noktasında ne kadar mesafe katettiği belirleyecek.
Ancak bu yaptırımların uzun dönemde Türkiye'nin milli savunma teknolojileri konusundaki kararlılığından vazgeçirmesi söz konusu değil.
ABD Kongresinin, akıllı mühimmat satışının engellenmesi gibi Türkiye'ye yönelik küçük ölçekli ambargolarının, Türkiye'nin bu mühimmatların yerli muadillerini üretmesini sağladığı gibi bu yaptırımlar da Ankara'ya milli teknoloji hamlesinden geri adım attırmasından çok bu konudaki çabalarını artırmasına olanak sağlayacak.