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Türkiye ile Irak arasında son dönemde artan diplomatik ziyaretlerin bir parçası olarak Milli Savunma Bakanı Hulusi Akar 'ın Irak'ın başkenti Bağdat ve Irak Kürt Bölgesel Yönetimi'nin (IKBY ) başkenti Erbil 'e yaptığı ziyaretler kapsamındaki yoğun temasları sırasında ve sonrasında verilen mesajlar, Türkiye'nin uzun süredir "ikinci Kandil" olmasına izin verilmeyeceğini söylediği Sincar'a yönelik yeni operasyonun elinin kulağında olduğunu gösterdi. Peki, idari olarak Irak'ın Musul vilayetine bağlı olmasına rağmen IKBY ile tartışmalı bölge kabul edilen ve terör örgütü DEAŞ'ın 2014'teki işgalinden sonra terör örgütü PKK'nın ve İran yanlısı Iraklı milis gruplarının güdümüne giren Sincar'a yönelik Türkiye'nin yeni operasyonu ne kadar yakın, Bağdat ve Erbil bu operasyona nasıl bakar?
ANKARA-BAĞDAT EKSENİNDE ARTAN ASKERİ İŞBİRLİĞİ Akar'ın Genelkurmay Başkanı Orgeneral Yaşar Güler ile birlikte 18 Ocak'ta başladığı Irak ziyaretlerinde, 36 saat içinde Bağdat ile Erbil 'de sekiz üst düzey görüşme gerçekleştirmesi, bu ziyaretin Irak Başbakanı Mustafa el-Kazımi'nin beraberindeki kalabalık heyetle Ankara 'ya yaptığı ziyaretten yaklaşık bir ay sonraya denk gelmesi tesadüf değil. Zira Akar'ın Ağustos 2020'de yapılması planlanan ziyaretinin, Irak makamlarınca, Dohuk'ta iki Iraklı sınır muhafızının Türkiye 'nin İHA saldırısında hayatını kaybettiğinin belirtilmesi üzerine iptal edildiği açıklanmıştı. Kazımi'nin Ankara ziyareti ve akabinde 28 Aralık'ta Irak Savuma Bakanı Cuma Annad Sadun'un Akar'ın davetlisi olarak Ankara'ya gelmesinin ardından gecikmeli olarak yapılan Irak ziyaretinin, Ankara ile Bağdat arasındaki askeri/güvenlik eksenli söz konusu sorunların çözüldüğüne işaret ettiği söylenebilir.
Akar'ın Irak 'taki görüşmelerinin ardından, Ankara -Bağdat -Erbil hattında mevcut siyasi ve ekonomik ilişkilerin yanı sıra terörle mücadele ve istihbarat paylaşımı gibi askeri konularda da işbirliğinin gelişeceği öngörülebilir. Nitekim Akar'ın ziyarete ilişkin açıklamasındaki "Önümüzdeki dönemde uygun mekanizmaları kurmak suretiyle Türkiye -Irak, Türkiye-Erbil arasındaki işbirliği terörle mücadele konusunda çok önemli birtakım gelişmelere sebep olabilecek" ifadeleri, tarafların Ankara'nın uzun süredir Irak sınırları içinde PKK'ya yönelik yürüttüğü operasyonlara rıza gösterdiği şeklinde okunabileceği gibi, söz konusu operasyonların genişleyeceğine ve bu operasyonlara Bağdat ve Erbil'in de belirli düzeylerde iştirak edeceğine işaret ettiğine dair yorumlara da yol açtı.
Özellikle Bağdat ile Erbil arasında Ekim ayında Birleşmiş Milletler (BM) gözetiminde imzalanan ve ABD, Almanya, İngiltere ve Türkiye 'nin desteklediği Sincar anlaşmasının uygulanması ve anlaşma kapsamında PKK'nın Sincar'daki varlığının sonlandırılması konusunda yaşanan gecikmelerin vurgulandığı bu ziyaretler, Sincar'a yönelik yeni operasyonların habercisi olarak okundu.
AK Parti Sözcüsü Ömer Çelik'in 14 Ocak'taki "Eğer oradaki Irak yönetimi bu Sincar'daki PKK varlığını ortadan kaldıramıyorsa biz tabii ki onlara yardım etmeye hazırız" sözleri, Akar'ın Irak ziyaretiyle Sincar'a operasyon ihtimalinin öne çıkması ve ziyaretten kısa bir süre sonra Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan'ın Sincar'ı kastederek "Bir gece ansızın gelebiliriz" demesi, operasyonun yakın bir zamanda yapılacağı yönündeki algıyı güçlendirdi. Operasyonlar konusunda ortak hareket etme yönündeki eğilim, Irak topraklarından Türkiye 'ye yönelik tehditlere izin verilmeyeceğini söyleyen Irak Başbakanı Kazımi'nin Ankara 'ya yaptığı ziyaretin sonuçlarından biri olarak okunabileceği gibi, bunda PKK ile son dönemde sıkça çatışma ve gerilimler yaşayan IKBY 'nin PKK'ya ve onun Irak'taki varlığına karşı sertleşen söyleminin de etkisi olduğu görülüyor.
ERBİL İSTEKLİ, BAĞDAT ÇEKİMSER Üzerinden dört ay geçen Sincar anlaşmasının imzalanmasından bu yana PKK ile birçok kez çatışma yaşayan, çok sayıda peşmergesini kaybeden ve (aylık memur maaşlarını dahi ödeyemediği halde) petrol boru hattına PKK'nın yaptığı saldırıyla yaklaşık 100 milyon dolar kaybeden IKBY , PKK'nın Sincar başta olmak üzere Irak 'ın kuzeyinden çıkarılması konusunda hiç olmadığı kadar istekli. Buna rağmen, Bağdat 'ta hükümet ve İran destekli Şii milis grupları arasında yaşanan çekişmeler nedeniyle, merkezi hükümetin anlaşmanın uygulanmasına yönelik beklenen yaklaşımı sergilendiğini söylemek zor. Sincar'a konuşlandırıldığı belirtilen üç tabur Irak askerine rağmen, hem PKK hem de Haşdi Şabi bünyesindeki İran'a yakın milis gruplar Sincar anlaşmasını bozarak bölgedeki varlığını sürdürürken, Bağdat hükümetinin PKK ve Haşdi Şabi'nin bölgeden çekilmesi konusundaki isteksizliği ya da iradesizliğine rağmen Sincar'a olası bir operasyona katılması ya da bu operasyona açıktan destek vermesi aşırı bir beklentiye yol açabilir. Zira PKK'nın bölgedeki yerel güçlerine Haşdi Şabi tarafından maaş bağlandığı ve Haşdi Şabi'nin Irak'ta resmi bir güç olmasına rağmen, örgütün içindeki İran yanlısı figürler ve grupların Bağdat'taki hükümetten bağımsız hareket edebildiği ve hatta hükümeti ve başbakanı tehdit ettiği hatırlanacak olursa, Sincar'a bir operasyon durumunda, Irak'taki karmaşık güç dengesi bağlamında, denkleme sadece hükümetin değil, Şii milislerin ve bu milisleri destekleyen İran'ın da dahil olduğu görülebilir.
Musul kent merkezine yaklaşık 120 kilometre mesafedeki Sincar, Suriye ve Türkiye 'ye yakınlığı, Suriye'nin kuzeyindeki YPG/PKK ile Irak 'ın kuzeyindeki Kandil bölgesi arasında doğal bir koridor imkânı sunması ve İran'ın Suriye'ye erişiminde kritik bir güzergâh oluşturması açısından önem arz ediyor. Bağdat hükümetinin Sincar'daki İran destekli Şii milislerin varlığından ve dolayısıyla İran nüfuzundan rahatsızlık duymasına rağmen, Irak'ın ABD-İran gerilimine sahne olması ve İran destekli Şii milis grupların başta başkent Bağdat olmak üzere ülke genelindeki kontrolsüz tutumları ve ABD misyonlarına yönelik rutinleşen saldırıları, Bağdat hükümeti için Sincar'ı öncelik olmaktan çıkarıyor olabilir. Öte yandan, rahatsızlık duymalarına rağmen Bağdat ve Erbil 'in çözüm üretemediği Irak'taki PKK varlığına yönelik Ankara 'nın sınır ötesi operasyonları, Kazımi hükümetinin sıkça tekrar ettiği egemenlik söylemine zarar verse de, ülkenin içinde bulunduğu ekonomi ve altyapı sorunları gibi gündemler nedeniyle ve PKK'nın varlığından duyulan rahatsızlıktan ötürü, Türkiye'nin operasyonlarına şu an bir tepki gösterilememesi bir yana, PKK konusunda Ankara'yla belirli ölçüde benzer bir tutum takınmak zorunda kalınıyor. Zira ülkedeki PKK varlığı Irak'ın egemenliği için bir tehdit oluştursa da, PKK'ya yönelik risk algısı Türkiye'ninkiyle aynı değil. Bu nedenle İran destekli Şii milis gruplarıyla rekabet ve yeniden saldırılarını artıran DEAŞ'la mücadele, ekonomi ve seçim gibi öncelikleri varken, PKK kendisiyle çatışmadığı sürece ve Sincar'daki Haşdi Şabi ve İran PKK ile ilişkisinde yeni bir yol benimsemediği sürece, Bağdat'ın daha aktif bir tutum benimsemesi zor görünüyor.
KONJONKTÜREL UYGUNLUK Bu ziyaretten sonra Türkiye 'nin Erbil ve Bağdat 'ı Sincar'daki PKK varlığının bitirilmesi konusunda daha yoğun bir şekilde destekleyeceği ve bölgeye yönelik operasyonlarını artırarak sahada sonuç alıcı politikalara zorlayacağı tahmin edilebilir. Ortak operasyon konusunda özellikle Bağdat'tan daha çok istihbarî katkı alınması ihtimal dahilinde. Fakat neredeyse 600 köyü PKK işgali altında bulunan IKBY 'nin, kendisi için her geçen gün daha büyük bir tehdide dönüşen PKK'ya karşı Ankara ile daha yakın temasta olacağı anlaşılıyor.
Özellikle ziyaret esnasında ilk kez Türkiye 'nin bir genelkurmay başkanının, eski IKBY Başkanı ve KDP lideri Mesut Barzani'nin babası Mustafa Barzani'nin fotoğrafının önünde ve IKBY bayrağının bulunduğu bir ortamda görüntü vermesi, TSK'nın geleneksel tutumuna aykırı bir görüntü olarak yorumlandığı gibi, bu durum IKBY ile PKK karşıtlığında gelinen ortaklığın seviyesini ve bu ortaklığın öncelediğini de gösteriyor. Nitekim Akar'ın IKBY'ye atıfla "Bu konuda özellikle bölgesel yönetimin iradesinin çok değerli, anlamlı ve saygıdeğer olduğunun da altını çizerek belirtmek istiyorum" demesi, halihazırda PKK'ya ve örgütün Sincar'daki varlığına karşı sert açıklamalar yapan Erbil yönetiminin, Türkiye ile birlikte PKK karşıtı operasyonlarda daha fazla inisiyatif alacağına yönelik bir mesaj olarak da okunabilir.
Tartışmalı bölgeler, enerji ve sınır kapılarının geliri ve bütçe payı gibi birçok konuda anlaşmazlık yaşayan Bağdat ve Erbil 'in ortaklaştığı nadir konulardan biri olan Sincar anlaşması ve bu anlaşmayla PKK'nın bölgeden çıkarılması yönünde vardıkları mutabakat ve başta ABD ve BM'nin bu anlaşmaya verdiği destek hatırlandığında, Ankara için Sincar ve Irak 'ın kuzeyindeki PKK varlığına yönelik olası operasyonlar konusunda, konjonktürel açıdan en uygun dönemin oluştuğu belirtilebilir. ABD'nin Irak'taki İran yanlısı Şii milislerin artan etkisinden ve PKK'nın özellikle Sincar'da Şii milislerle işbirliği yapmasından ve İran lehine hamlelerinden rahatsız olması, Erbil-Bağdat-Ankara hattını Sincar'daki PKK varlığının sonlandırılması konusunda daha da motive edebilir.
BAŞKAN ERDOĞAN'DAN SİNCAR'A OPERASYON AÇIKLAMASI Başkan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Cuma namazı çıkışında gazetecilerin sorularını yanıtlarken, Sincar operasyonu ile ilgili "Ortak operasyonları filan her zaman yapmaya hazırız ama bunları açıklamak suretiyle bu operasyonlar yapılmaz. Her zaman benim bir sözüm var 'Bir gece ansızın gelebiliriz' olay budur" ifadelerini kullanmıştı.