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BNP Paribas Raporu: Türkiye'ye Yaklaşık 75 Milyar Dolarlık Sermaye Girişi Olabilir Giriş Tarihi: 17 Kasım 2023 11:08 Güncelleme Tarihi: 17 Kasım 2023 11:08
BNP Paribas'ın yayımladığı rapora göre, Türkiye'ye tarihsel ortalamalara dönüş varsayımıyla kademeli olarak 75 milyar dolarlık bir sermaye girişi öngörülüyor. Raporda, Türk tahvillerinin cazibesinin arttığı, TCMB'nin politika faizlerini düzenlemesi sonrasında daha çekici hale geldiği belirtiliyor
BNP Paribas raporunda, "Tarihsel ortalamalara kademeli olarak geri dönüleceği varsayımı altında yaklaşık 75 milyar dolarlık bir sermaye girişi olabileceğini hesaplıyoruz." ifadesi kullanıldı. BNP Paribas'ın raporunda, politika faizleri ve yerel mevduat faizlerinin, enflasyon beklentilerine karşı pozitif beklenen reel faiz oranları sağlayacak şekilde halihazırda yeterince ayarlandığı aktarıldı.
Raporda, TCMB'nin son aylarda para politikasında yaptığı düzenlemesinin ardından Türk tahvillerinin daha cazip hale geldiği belirtildi.
Türkiye'nin mali finansman ihtiyaçlarının özellikle 2024'ün ilk çeyreğinde yüksek olduğuna işaret edilen raporda, ancak Hazine'nin artan nakit dengesi ve iyileşen mali performansının arz risklerini azalttığı kaydedildi.
Raporda, kış aylarına girerken TCMB'nin döviz rezervlerini iyileştirmesinin ve borç çevirme oranlarının yüksek olmasının kur şokunun ani riskini azalttığı ifade edildi.
Uzun vadeli tahvil faizlerinin TCMB'nin kredibilite açığının kapanmakta olduğuna ve piyasaların pozitif reel faiz ortamının uzun süreli olacağını fiyatladığına işaret ettiği belirtilen raporda, "Bu durum, piyasaların TCMB'nin politika sıkılaştırmasını geçici bir hamle olarak fiyatlamaktan vazgeçtiğini ve uzun vadede daha ortodoks bir para politikası olacağını hesaba katmaya başladığını gösteriyor." değerlendirmesi yapıldı.
75 milyar dolarlık sermaye girişi tahmini Raporda, "Tarihsel ortalamalara kademeli olarak geri dönüleceği varsayımı altında yaklaşık 75 milyar dolarlık bir sermaye girişi olabileceğini hesaplıyoruz." ifadeleri kullanıldı.
BNP Paribas'ın raporunda, "KKM hesaplarındaki azalışa rağmen döviz mevduatlarının artmıyor, döviz mevduatlarındaki artış da zorunlu karşılıklar veya bankalarla swap kanalıyla TCMB rezervlerine yansıyor, resmi rezervler son 3 ayda KKM stokundaki önemli düşüşle birlikte artıyor ve bu durum KKM politikasının başarılı bir şekilde uygulandığını gösteriyor." ifadelerine yer verildi.
Deutsche Bank da hafta başında paylaştığı bilgi notunda, Türk tahvillerinin 2024'te en iyi performans gösteren gelişmekte olan tahviller arasında yer alabileceğini bildirmişti.