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Goldman Sachs: Türk Lirası oyuna geri dönüyor Giriş Tarihi: 28 Eylül 2023 17:07 Güncelleme Tarihi: 28 Eylül 2023 16:12
Ekonomide atılan adımlar bir bir meyvelerini veriyor. Merkez Bankası’nın faiz kararları, Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı’nın hamleleri dünyanın dikkatini çekmeye devam ediyor. Dün Avrupa İmar ve Kalkınma Bankası, Türk ekonomisinde büyüme öngörüsünü 3,5’e yükseltirken bugün ABD’li Goldman Sachs raporunda politika faizindeki normalleşmenin TL’de kazancın geri döndüğüne işaret ettiğini yazdı. İşte detaylar...
ABD'nin önemli bankalarından Goldman Sachs'a göre, Türkiye'nin politika faizindeki hızlı normalleşme Türk lirasında (TL) kazancın geri döndüğüne işaret ediyor.
Goldman Sachs, müşterilerine gönderdiği "Türkiye (Türk lirası) oyuna geri döndü" başlıklı gelişen piyasalar raporunda, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası'nın (TCMB) para politikasına ilişkin değerlendirmelerde bulundu.
Dengesizliklerin arttığı ve yatırımcı ilgisinin azaldığı Heterodoks politikalarla geçen uzun bir dönemin ardından Türkiye'nin faizde normalleşmeye doğru hızlanan patikasının, politika faizini yüzde 30'a çıkaran bir diğer büyük artışla devam ettiği kaydedilen raporda, "Merkez Bankası'nın sözlü yönlendirmesinde, parasal sıkılaştırmanın daha da güçlendirileceği belirtilirken, yerli piyasa katılımcılarının kur korumalı mevduatlardan TL mevduatlara geçişinin teşvik edileceğine odaklanıldı." denildi.
Raporda, Türkiye'nin politika faizindeki hızlı normalleşmenin TL'de kazancın geri döndüğüne işaret ettiği belirtildi.
"YIL SONUNDA YÜZDE 40 VE ÜZERİ POLİTİKA FAİZİ TÜRKİYE'NİN REEL FAİZLERİNİ POZİTİF BÖLGEYE GETİREBİLİR"
Öngörülerin de yer aldığı raporda, şunlar kaydedildi:
"Ekonomistlerimizin 12 ay sonrası enflasyon tahminlerine göre, yıl sonunda yüzde 40 ve üzeri politika faizi Türkiye'nin reel faizlerini pozitif bölgeye getirebilir. Önden yüklemeli ve kuvvetli faiz ayarlamalarıyla döviz kurunda kısa vadeli baskılar hafifledi ve bu durum, TL'nin yüksek getirisini sürdürmesini sağlayabilir.
Politika faizindeki son artış, mevduat faizlerinin daha fazla artacağına işaret ediyor. Önceki yılların tersine riskler devam etse de son adımlar pozitif reel faiz stratejisini destekliyor. Bu durum, vadeli piyasa fiyatlamalarında (forward) TL getirisinin dövizi yenmesinin mümkün olduğuna işaret ediyor."