Hacettepe Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi Halk Sağlığı Uzmanı ve Bilim Kurulu üyesi Prof. Dr. Levent Akın, kademeli normalleşme sürecinde aşılamanın etkisi ve kurallara uyum ile birlikte vaka sayılarındaki düşüş seyrinin devam edebileceğini belirtti.
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Hacettepe Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi Halk Sağlığı Uzmanı ve Bilim Kurulu üyesi Prof. Dr. Levent Akın, kademeli normalleşme sürecinde aşılamanın etkisi ve kurallara uyum ile birlikte vaka sayılarındaki düşüş seyrinin devam edebileceğini belirtti.
"100 KİŞİDEN 25'İ AŞIYA GELİYOR 75 KİŞİLİK KONTENJAN BLOKE OLUYOR"
Prof. Dr. Akın, "Aşılar hızlı bir şekilde yapılırsa, hem açık alanların daha fazla kullanılması hem insanların kurallara daha fazla dikkat ediyor olması hem de aşının da etkisiyle vaka sayısında düşme olabilir. Ama yeter ki insanlar hem kurallara dikkat etsinler hem de aşı sırası geldiğinde bunu ihmal etmeden olmaları lazım.
Bana gelen bilgilerde doğruluğunu kontrol etmek lazım belki ama 100 kişi aşı randevusu alıyorsa, tahminen 25 kişi aşıya geliyormuş. 75 kişilik kontenjanı gereksiz bloke ediyormuş. Bu hem kendileri için hem de Türk toplumu için zarar veriyor. O yüzden muhakkak aşı randevusuna gidip aşı olmamız lazım.
Hem kendimizi hem de toplumu koruruz. Toplumu koruduğumuz zaman sosyal, iş yaşamımıza biraz daha rahat devam etme fırsatı olur. Sonbaharda olabilecek riski de en aza indirmiş oluruz. Sonbahara daha rahat bir durumda girebiliriz" dedi.
"HASTALANMA VE AĞIR VAKALARDA DÜŞÜŞ OLUYOR"
Prof. Dr. Akın, 65 yaş üzerinde aşılama oranının yaklaşık yüzde 70-80 olduğunu belirterek, "Buna bağlı olarak bu yaş grubunda hastalanan sayısı, ağır vaka, yoğun bakıma yatan ya da ölenlerin sayılarında dramatik bir düşüş görüyoruz.
Demek ki, 2 doz almış 65 yaş grubunda aşının önemli bir etkisi oldu. Diğer yaş gruplarına yaygınlaştırmaya başladığımız zaman o yaş gruplarında da önceki dönemlere göre hastalanma ya da ağır vaka sayısında düşme oluyor.
O zaman aşının etkisini görüyoruz. Ama bunu olabildiği kadar geniş gruplara yaymaya başladığınız zaman bu sefer toplumdaki tüm toplam vaka sayısında azalma görüyorsunuz. Şu anda Türkiye 50 yaş ve üzerine aşı yapıyor. Ama bu aşı tedarikine bağlı olarak 40-30-20 yaşa kadar inecek.
O zaman bir anda daha fazla kişiye aşı yapıldığı için hasta olan sayısı azalacak ya da ağır vaka, hastalık belirtileri gösteren sayısı azalacak. Şu andaki 6 bin 800 rakamı daha da aşağılara inebilecek" diye konuştu.
"BASTIRILAN YAY GİBİ TEKRAR ZIPLAR"
Prof. Dr. Akın, toplumun en rahatlayacağı dönemin vaka sayılarında 600'lerin, 500'lerin altına inilmesi olacağına dikkat çekerek, "Bu bir hedeftir. Şu anda 6 binlerden 5 binlere 4 binlere inerse o zaman salgını kontrol etme uygulamalarının iyiye gittiği düşünülür. Yeterli midir? Hayır. İyiye gittiğini düşündürür; ama bu iyi gidişi sürdürmeniz lazım.
'Her şey iyiye gidiyor, artık boş verelim' derseniz o bir anda bastırılan yay gibi tekrar zıplar. Tekrar olmadık zamanda yüksek vakalar görürüz. O yüzden biraz daha sabretmek lazım, biraz daha kurallara uyalım. Önümüzde rahat bir döneme gidebiliriz eğer aşı programı da istediğimiz ölçüde iyi giderse" ifadelerini kullandı.
"14 GÜN BEKLEMEK LAZIM"
Prof. Dr. Levent Akın, kademeli normalleşmenin etkisinin 14 gün sonra görüleceğini kaydederek, "Şu anda rakamlar yaklaşık 6 bin 500-6 bin 800 civarında. Diyelim ki 10-15 gün sonra rakamları 6 bin 500, 5 bin, 4 bine doğru iniyorsa, o zaman demek ki hem mevsim şartları hem de insanların uyumuna bağlı olarak vaka sayısında azalma olacağını düşünebiliriz.
Düşünebiliriz diyorum, doğru olmayabilir. Çünkü salgınlar tepe noktasını yaptıktan sonra yani en yüksek düzeye çıktıktan sonra bir süre sonra kendisini sınırlamaya başlar.
Bu sınırlama tehlikenin geçtiği anlamına değildir; yeni vakalara aday döneme doğru gidiyorsunuzdur. O yüzden de tekrar vakalar artabilir. 14 Haziran'dan sonra bunu takip etmek lazım; 'acaba vakalarımızda artış olacak mı, azalış eğilimi devam edecek mi' diye. Bu nedenle vaka artışının esas kararını verebilmek için 10-14 gün beklemek lazım" dedi.