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Mısır , Ürdün ve Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri 'nin (BAE ) ardından Bahreyn'in de 11 Eylül'de İsrail 'le resmi ilişkiler kurulması kervanına katılacağı ilanı, Körfez başta olmak üzere Arap ülkelerinin, ABD himayesinde İsrail ile normalleşme yolunda hızla ilerlemeye yöneleceğini gösteriyor.
İşgal altındaki Filistin topraklarında İsrail devleti kurulduğunun ilan edilmesi sonrasında 1948, 1956, 1967, 1969 ve 1973'te yapılan Arap-İsrail savaşlarının ardından Mısır 1979'da, Ürdün 1994'te İsrail ile barış anlaşması imzaladı.
Mısır ve Ürdün'ün İsrail ile sınırları bulunuyor. Bu durum İsrail ile sınırı bulunmayan Arap ülkelerinin ard arda İsrail ile barış anlaşmaları yapmaya koşması hakkında birçok soru işaretine neden oluyor.
Belki de ABD Başkanı Donald Trump , geçtiğimiz haftalarda Araplar ve İsrailliler arasındaki tarihsel uçuruma önemli bir köprü kurmada başarılı oldu ve halen de diğer Arap ülkelerin normalleşme yoluna girmesi için çalışıyor.
Normalleşme süreci, İsrail için on yıllardır Körfez liderleriyle yaptığı duyurulmuş ya da gizli kalan temasların ardından elde ettiği ard arda gelen siyasi zaferleri temsil ediyor.
Buna karşılık Filistin yönetimi, Arap Birliği'ne sunmak için hazırladığı İsrail-BAE normalleşme anlaşmasını kınayan karar taslağına Arap ülkelerinden gereken desteği alamadı. Bu da Filistin meselesinin Arap ülkelerinin önceliklerinin alt sıralarına düştüğünün göstergesi.
BAE'nin 13 Ağustos'ta İsrail ile normalleşme kararı almasının ardından hemen Mısır ve Ürdün gibi Umman, Bahreyn ve diğer bazı Arap ülkeleri bu duruma destek verdi. Gözlemciler, başta Körfez olmak üzere daha fazla Arap ülkesinin normalleşme sürecine katılacağını öne sürüyor.
BAE , Mısır ve bazı diğer ülkeler de Bahreyn'in İsrail ile normalleşme kararını desteklemede acele ederken, Türkiye, Filistin yönetimi ve Hamas Bahreyn kararına sert eleştirilerde bulundu.
İran , Bahreyn hükümetinin kararının dünyadaki ezilen Filistin halkının, Müslümanların ve özgür halkların patlamasına ve öfkelerinin artmasına yol açacağı konusunda uyardı.
Suudi Arabistan , BAE ve Bahreyn'e yönelik herhangi bir eleştiri yöneltmezken, kendisinin, benzer bir anlaşmayı imzalamasının İsrail ile Filistin arasında iki devletli çözüm temelinde kapsamlı bir barış anlaşması yapılmasına bağlı olduğunu belirtmekle yetindi.
BAE ve Bahreyn'in normalleşme kararı İsrail'in reddettiği Arap Barış Girişimine zarar vermesine rağmen, Suudi Arabistan iki ülkenin kararını da eleştirmedi. Aksine bölgede barışa götürecek her çabayı memnuniyetle karşıladığını belirtti. Analistler, Suudi Arabistan'ın bu tavrını normalleşme süreci için gizli bir destek olarak değerlendirdi.
Suudi Arabistan'ın son günlerde İsrail'den kalkan ya da İsrail'e giden uçakların kendi hava sahasını kullanmasına izin vermesinin ardından birçok gözlemci, Suudi Arabistan'ın İsrail'le normalleşmeye karar vermeden önce BAE ve Bahreyn'in normalleşme sürecinin sonuçlarını beklediği konusunda ABD Başkanı Donald Trump 'ın damadı ve danışmanı Jared Kushner ile hemfikir.
Suudi Arabistan 'ın politikasını yansıttığı düşünülen resmi basın kuruluşları veya sosyal medya fenomenleri, BAE ve Bahreyn'in İsrail ile normalleşme kararlarını destekleyen bir tutum sergiledi.
Bunlar Filistin in davasının Arap ülkelerinin öncelik sıralamasında alt saflara düşmesinden Filistinlileri sorumlu tutan bir kamuoyu oluşturmaya çalıştı.
Ayrıca İsrail ile ilişki kurma kararlarının BAE ile Bahreyn hükümetlerine ait olduğunu ve hiç kimsenin bunlara müdahale etme hakkına sahip olmadığını ileri sürdüler.
Suudi Arabistan liderliğindeki "Yarımada Kalkan Gücü"nün 2011'de güvenlik kaosuyla mücadele için Bahreyn'e müdahalesinden bu yana Manama'nın izlediği siyaset, İsrail'le normalleşme kararını Suudi yönetimine danışmadan alamayacağını gösteriyor.
BAE'nin Körfez'de türünün ilk örneği olan normalleşme kararını eleştirmeyen Suudi Arabistan, belki de normalleşme kararını gizli şekilde tebrik etmiş olabilir.
ABD ile İsrail'in, İran tehditleri konusunda bazı endişeleri bulunuyor. Bu endişeleri, Suudi Arabistan, BAE, Bahreyn ve az da olsa Kuveyt de paylaşıyor. Ancak İran'la siyasi, güvenlik, ekonomik ve ticari açılardan normal ilişkilerini, ortak çıkarlarını ve ileri seviyede koordinasyonu sürdüren Umman ve Katar bu konuda farklı bir tutum sergiliyor.
Bahreyn ile ABD birbirine uzun vadeli stratejik bir ortaklıkla bağlı. Bu durum, İran Devrim Muhafızları ve onun bölgedeki müttefiklerinin oluşturduğu tehditler karşısında Körfez sularındaki seyrüsefer özgürlüğü ve küresel ticaretin korunması ortaklığının yanı sıra Bahreyn'in ABD'nin Orta Doğu 'daki en önemli deniz üslerine ev sahipliği yapmasından bu yana devam ediyor.
İsrail-Körfez temasları, İran'ın bazı Körfez ve Arap ülkeleri ile İsrail'e yönelik artan tehditleriyle mücadele veya "Yüzyılın Anlaşması" olarak isimlendirilen ABD'nin sözde barış planı görüşmeleri temelinde genellikle ABD gözetiminde kapalı kapılar ardında başladı.
Sözde barış planı, Filistin tarafından reddedilmesine rağmen İsrail 'in yanı sıra BAE , Bahreyn, Umman, Katar, Mısır , Fas gibi bazı Arap ülkeleri tarafından onaylandı.
ABD , 2017'de İran 'ın bölgedeki etkinliğine karşı "Arap NATO'su" olarak adlandırılan "Stratejik Orta Doğu Paktı" kurulması çalışmalarına başladı. Washington öncülüğündeki bu girişimde 6 Körfez ülkesinin yanı sıra Fas, Ürdün ve İsrail de bulunuyor.
O dönemde bazı uzmanlar, bu stratejik paktın hedefleri arasında; Körfez bölgesindeki koalisyon ülkelerin siyasi, ekonomik ve güvenlik yapısına İsrail ve Fas'ın entegrasyonu olduğunu ifade etti.
Ancak bu yakınlaşmadaki en önemli adım, İsrail'le daha fazla resmi temas kurmaktı. Bahreyn, ABD Başkanı Donald Trump "Yüzyılın Anlaşması"nı 28 Ocak 2020'de açıklamadan önce "Yüzyılın Anlaşması"nın ekonomik açıdan görüşmek üzere Arap ve İsrail ile farklı ülkelerden liderlerin katılımıyla Haziran 2019'daki Manama çalıştayına ev sahipliği yaptı.
BAE'nin İsrail'le resmi ilişkiler kurulduğunu duyurması ardından Bahreyn'in açıklaması ve 3 Kasım'daki ABD başkanlık seçimlerinden önce başka ülkelerin de bu yönde açıklama yapma ihtimali sadece İsrail'le ilişkilerin varlığının aleni şekilde kabulü ve bu duruma resmiyet kazandırmaktır.
Manama hükümeti, onlarca yıldır Sünni azınlığın hakim olduğu monarşiye karşı zaman zaman protestolar düzenleyen Şii çoğunluğun yaygın muhalefetiyle karşı karşıya.
İsrail ile anlaşmanın halen topraklarının bir parçası olarak Bahreyn'in ilhakını talep eden İran tarafından reddedildiği göz önüne alındığında Manama'nın anlaşmayı imzalanmasından sonraki gelecek haftalarda, rejime yönelik iç muhalefetin tırmanması bekleniyor.