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Washington Post'un haberine göre, Suriye'de muhaliflerin ilerleyişi sırasında Beşar Esad 'ın sarayındaki kritik isimlerden biri olan güvenlik sorumlusu, liderine sadakat yeminiyle döndü ancak Esad çoktan kaçmıştı. Yakın çevresinden bir kişi ise, "Herkes kendini ihanete uğramış hissediyor" dedi.
Heyet Tahrir el-Şam (HTŞ), son dört yılda "sahadaki güç dengesini değiştirecek kapsamlı bir karşı saldırı" hazırlığı yaptı. HTŞ mensubu Musa Elesad'a göre, örgüt yılın başında bu planını Türkiye 'ye sundu. Ankara, planı doğrudan onaylamasa da prensipte destek verdi.
Ekim ayı itibarıyla HTŞ'nin harekât planı daha somut hale geldi. Şam'a ilerlemeyi hedefleyen örgüt, Lübnan'daki gelişmeleri dikkatle izledi. İsrail'in Lübnan'a yönelik saldırılarının, Esad rejiminin müttefiki olan Hizbullah güçlerini Suriye'nin kuzeyinden çekilmeye zorlayacağını düşündü.
Elesad, Türkiye'nin başlangıçta çatışmayı engellemek için çaba gösterdiğini belirtti. Bir Türk yetkili ise Türkiye'nin, İdlib Gerginliği Azaltma Bölgesi'nin güvenliğini son ana kadar koruma amacı taşıdığını ifade etti.
Fotoğraf: WSJ
ASTANA'DAN ŞAM'A: HTŞ'NİN BEKLENMEDİK İLERLEYİŞİ
11 Kasım'da gerçekleşen Astana görüşmeleri, Suriye'deki dengeleri değiştiren bir dönüm noktası oldu. Türk yetkililere göre, Ankara toplantıda Suriye yönetimini ve Rusya'yı açıkça uyardı: Mevcut durum sürdürülemezdi. Türk tarafı, "Rejim ve destekçileri, İdlib'de sivillere ve sivil altyapıya yönelik saldırılara devam ederse, güçlü bir karşılık alacaklarını" iletti. Bu uyarının ardından Türkiye , muhaliflerin planlarını uygulamasına yeşil ışık yaktı.
26 Kasım'da İsrail ile Hizbullah arasında ateşkes ilan edilmesi, HTŞ için endişe verici bir gelişme oldu. Örgüt, Hizbullah savaşçılarının Lübnan'dan Suriye'ye dönerek cephede yeniden aktifleşmesinden çekindi. Bu nedenle, harekâtını bir gün sonra, 27 Kasım'da başlattı.
HTŞ'nin operasyonu başlangıçta sadece Halep 'i hedef alıyordu. Ancak sahadaki beklenmedik ilerleyiş, örgüt içinde bile şaşkınlık yarattı. Halep'in düşüşünün ardından, hayal dahi edilemeyen bir hedef artık mümkün görünüyordu: Şam'a doğru ilerlemek.
Batılı yetkililere göre, HTŞ'nin güneye doğru ilerleyişi sırasında Rusya, Türkiye ile sürekli temas halindeydi ve örgütün planlarını anlamaya çalışıyordu. Görüşmelerde Türk yetkililer, Rusya'ya net mesajlar verdi: Beşar Esad rejimine verilen desteğin artık anlamsız olduğu ve HTŞ'yi bombalamanın, Suriye'nin gelecekteki liderlerini Rusya'ya karşıt hale getireceği ifade edildi.
Bu görüşmelerde Türkiye, Rusya'ya Esad rejiminin Suriye'nin geleceğinde sürdürülebilir bir seçenek olmadığını ve muhaliflerle daha yapıcı bir ilişki geliştirmenin önemini vurguladı. Batılı kaynaklar, Ankara'nın bu mesajlarının, Suriye krizinde diplomasi ve güç mücadelesi açısından kritik bir dönemeç olduğunu belirtiyor.
Fotoğraf: WSJ
ARAP LİDERLER ESAD'IN ARTIK SONA YAKLAŞTIĞINI FARK ETTİ
Beşar Esad 'ın Suriye'den kaçışından iki gün önce, bazı Arap müttefikleri hâlâ onun iktidarda kalma şansının olduğunu düşünüyordu. Ancak sahadaki hızlı değişim, bu umutları kısa sürede söndürdü. Esad'ın müttefikleri, endişeyle Türkiye 'ye ulaşarak muhaliflerin operasyonlarını durdurmak için Esad'ın sunabileceği tavizlerden bahsetmeye başladı.
Türk yetkililerden birine göre, bu girişimler kısa sürede etkisiz kaldı. Ertesi gün, Arap liderler Esad'ın artık sona yaklaştığını fark etti ve bu nedenle krizi ele almak için planladıkları Arap Ligi toplantısını ertelediler. Esad'ın müttefiklerinin çabaları, rejim üzerindeki kontrolü kaybetmelerinin bir göstergesi olarak yorumlandı.
Beşar Esad'ın son dönemde İran'ın Suriye'deki etkisini azaltma çabaları, Tahran ile ilişkilerinde gerilime yol açtı. Ancak savaşın kritik anlarında Tahran'dan askeri destek istediğinde, artık çok geçti. İran, Suriye'deki askerlerini ve diplomatlarını tahliye etmeye başlamıştı ve destek yolları kapanmıştı.
BAŞKAN ERDOĞAN BEKLENTİLERİNİ BOŞA ÇIKARDI
Esad'ın bir aile üyesi ve bir Rus diplomatın ifadelerine göre, Halep 'in muhalifler tarafından ele geçirilmesinin ardından Rusya, İran ve Esad rejimi, Başkan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan'ın harekâta ara verip müzakerelere başlamasını bekledi. Ancak bu beklenti boşa çıktı. Rus yetkiliye göre Erdoğan, Rusya, İran ve rejimi "sürprize uğrattı." Erdoğan, harekâta destek açıklaması yaptı ve hedefin Şam olduğunu söyledi.
Bu gelişmeler, Esad rejiminin uluslararası ve bölgesel desteğini hızla kaybettiğini ve sahadaki dengelerin tamamen değiştiğini gösterdi.
Fotoğraf: WSJ
"EN İYİ SAVAŞÇILARIMIZI İLK AŞAMADA KAYBETTİK"
ABD'li yetkililerin aktardığına göre, tüm muhalif gruplar ortak bir operasyon planında birleşerek savaşçılarını Halep 'e sevk etti. En şiddetli çatışmalar, Halep dışındaki ilk savunma hattında yaşandı. HTŞ komutanı Abu Abdulrahman, "En iyi savaşçılarımızı ilk aşamada kaybettik" derken, bu kayıplara rağmen ilk hattın aşılması rejim güçlerinin çözülmesine neden oldu. Rejim askerleri hızla geri çekilirken Halep, mahalle mahalle kolayca ele geçirildi.
Halep'in düşüşünün ardından muhalifler, Esad'ın bazı aile üyeleriyle temasa geçerek rejim saflarını terk etmelerini sağlamaya çalıştı. HTŞ mensubu Abu Ziad'a göre, Halep'in kaybıyla birlikte Rus hava saldırıları azaldı ve muhalifler güneye doğru daha rahat ilerlemeye başladı.
Esad'ın bir aile üyesinin ifadelerine göre, Hama'da Zeynelabidin Dağı'nda direniş gösteren rejim askerleri teslim olmayı reddetti. Ancak bu durum ordu saflarında kafa karışıklığı yarattı ve geri çekilme emri verildi. Dağın düşmesiyle Hama da muhaliflerin kontrolüne geçti ve harekâtın bir sonraki durağı Humus oldu.
Fotoğraf: WSJ
"BU KADAR HIZLI BEKLEMİYORDUK"
Ahrar el-Şam'ın önde gelen komutanlarından Ahmed el-Dalati, rejimin güç kaybettiğini bildiklerini ancak Esad ordusunun bu kadar hızlı çökeceğini tahmin etmediklerini belirtti. Şam'da ele geçirilen belgelerde, rejimin cezaevlerinin firar eden askerlerle dolu olduğu ve çatışmalarda hayatını kaybedenlerin isimlerini içeren yığınla dosyanın bulunduğu ortaya çıktı.
HTŞ komutanı Abu Abdulrahman: "Humus'a geldiğimizde rejimin Şam'a kaçtığını görmek sürpriz oldu. Şam'daki rejim birlikleri düzensiz bir haldeydi; polislere karargahlarında kalma ve cepheyi tutma talimatı verildi, ancak daha sonra yeni bir talimat geldi; kaçmaları istendi. Halihazırda zaten kimse talimat beklemiyordu; polisler üniformalarını bırakıp sivil kıyafetler giyerek evlerine gitti. Bir polis memuru, "Çoktan evlerimize gitmiştik, olmak üzere olan şey belliydi" dedi.
Şam'ın düşmesinden sadece 48 saat önce, Esad, ailesi ve üst düzey Suriyeli yetkililer, her şey yolundaymış gibi davranmaya devam ediyordu. Rejime yakın bir kaynağın aktardığına göre, yetkililer durumu normal bir süreç olarak görmüş, yaşananları Türkiye ile Rusya arasındaki stratejik bir anlaşma olarak yorumlamış ve nihayetinde Rusya ile İran'ın desteğe geleceğini ummuştu. Ancak Esad, çevresine sorun olmadığını söylerken, ailesine bile haber vermeden kaçış planları yapıyordu.
Mahir Esad (Ekran görüntüsü)
REJİM ASKERLERİ MAHİR ESAD'IN EMRİNE UYMADI
Esad'ın kardeşi Mahir Esad, Genelkurmay'ın askerlere silahlarını bırakma talimatı vermesini şaşkınlıkla karşıladı, çünkü önceki geri çekilmelerin başkentteki savaşa hazırlık amacı taşıdığını düşünüyordu. Mahir Esad, askerlerine geri çekilme emirlerine itaat etmemeleri gerektiğini söyleyerek, "Emirlere uymayın" şeklinde bir direktif verdi. Ancak, askerlerinden aldığı cevap ise "Çok geç, çoktan uyduk bile" oldu.
Beşar Esad (Fotoğraf: AA)
"ESAD İHANET ETTİ"
Esad'ın sarayının güvenlik sorumlusu olan general, "Esad'ı yalnız bırakmayacağım" diyerek bölgeye geldi, ancak Esad çoktan kaçmıştı bile. Esad'ın yeğenleri, korumalarıyla birlikteyken Esad'ın kaçtığını öğrendi; kimse rejim liderinin ülkeyi terk ettiğini bilmiyordu. Esad'ın bir yakını, "Herkes, Esad tarafından ihanete uğradığını düşünüyor" dedi.