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Virologlar, yeni tür corona virüs salgınının ikinci dalgasını aylar öncesinden öngörmüştü. İnsanlar corona nedeniyle getirilen sosyal mesafe kuralları ve kısıtlamalara uymadıkça, olası bir ikinci dalga tehlikesi de büyüyor. Son haftalarda coronanın yeniden hız kazandığı gözleniyor.
Öte yandan insanların tatile çıkma arzusu da havaların ısınmasıyla giderek güçleniyor. İnsanlar tatile gittiklerinde küçük bir mekan içerisinde hareket ediyor, partilere gidiyor ve böylece dünya çapında yeni enfeksiyonların temeli atılmış oluyor. Örneğin Almanya 'da Temmuz ayı sonunda enfeksiyon sayıları astronomik biçimde artış gösterdi. Virüsü bulaştırma katsayısı "R değeri" de Almanya'da doruk seviyeye ulaştı. "R DEĞERİ" KİLİT ÖNEMDE Virüsü kapmış bir kişinin virüsü yeni bir kişiye bulaştırmasını ifade eden "R değeri", adını "reprodüksiyon" kelimesinin ilk harfinden alıyor. R değeri, enfekte kişinin virüsü ortalama kaç kişiye bulaştırdığını ifade ediyor. DW Türkçe'de yer alan habere göre, örneğin bu sayı 3 ise bu, her enfekte kişinin virüsü 3 kişiye bulaştırdığı anlamına geliyor. Almanya'da R değeri, Temmuz ayı sonunda 1'in üzerine çıktı. Bunun sorumlusunun, kurallara uymaksızın büyük insan toplulukları oluşturan, seyahat eden ve dolayısıyla virüsü taşıyan tatilciler olması olası.
Vaka sayılarının düşmesi bir başarı olarak görülebilir. Ancak yeniden bulaştırma sayısının artmasını olası bir ikinci dalganın habercisi olarak değerlendirmek mümkün. ABD ve Brezilya 'nın yanı sıra Hindistan ve Güney Afrika 'da da vakalarda son dönemde önemli bir yükseliş yaşanıyor. Yalnızca Brezilya'da halihazırda kayıt altına alınan vaka sayısı iki buçuk milyonu aşmış durumda.
Çok sayıda ülkede, önceden olduğu gibi sıkı karantina ve sosyal mesafe kuralları mevcut değil. Almanya , İspanya ve Yunanistan , kısıtlamaların gevşetildiği ilk ülkelerden olmuştu. Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (DSÖ ) de bir süredir, corona virüsün belki de hiçbir zaman hayatımızı terk etmeyeceği mesajını veriyor. Örgüt, önlemleri yok sayarak insanların corona öncesi yaşamlarındaki gibi davranmalarının yol açabileceği olası olumsuz sonuçlar hakkında da uyarıyor.
Birçok ülkede dükkan ve restoranlar yeniden açılmış durumda. Örneğin Avustralya'da restoran ve barlara giden kişiler arasında vaka sayısının artmasıyla birlikte, hükümet önlemleri yeniden sıkılaştırdı.
Öte yandan insanların tatile çıkma arzusu da havaların ısınmasıyla giderek güçleniyor. İnsanlar tatile gittiklerinde küçük bir mekan içerisinde hareket ediyor, partilere gidiyor ve böylece dünya çapında yeni enfeksiyonların temeli atılmış oluyor. Örneğin Almanya 'da Temmuz ayı sonunda enfeksiyon sayıları astronomik biçimde artış gösterdi. Virüsü bulaştırma katsayısı "R değeri" de Almanya'da doruk seviyeye ulaştı.
İSPANYOL GRİBİ KARŞILAŞTIRMASI Son dönemde artan biçimde kullanılan "ikinci dalga" tabiri hakkında uluslararası düzlemde üzerinde mutabık kalınan bir tanım yok. DSÖ 'nün bile bu konuda benimsediği net bir tanım söz konusu değil. DSÖ Sözcüsü Christian Lindmeier, DW'ye verdiği mülakatta, "Bu tanım yalnızca, başlangıçta yaşanan gerilemenin ardından meydana gelen yeni sıçrayışlara atıfta bulunuyor. Bu, bir 'üçüncü' dalga için de geçerli" diyor. Pandeminin henüz başlangıç döneminde virologlar, yeni bir enfeksiyon dalgasına ilişkin uyarıda bulunmuş ve insanlara sayılardaki düşüşü normal yaşama dönmek için yeşil ışık olarak görmeme çağrısı yapmıştı. Bilim insanları, corona virüsü 1918-1920 arası dönemde dünyayı kasıp kavuran İspanyol Gribi ile karşılaştırıyor. DSÖ verilerine göre, İspanyol Gribi toplamda 20 ila 50 milyon insan hayatına mal oldu.
İspanyol Gribi pandemisinde üç dalga söz konusu olmuştu. Salgının ikinci dalgası, ilk dalgasından çok daha şiddetli idi ve daha fazla can kaybına neden oldu. Söz konusu dalgalar arasında virüs mutasyona uğradı. Aynısının corona virüs için gerçekleşmesi de ihtimaller dahilinde.
VİRÜS MUTASYONA UĞRARSA NE OLUR? Yeryüzündeki her virüsün mutasyona uğrama, yani değişme potansiyeli mevcut. En iyimser senaryoya göre, virüs mutasyona uğradığında zayıflıyor. Dolayısıyla virüs daha az tehlikeli hale geliyor ve daha az can kaybına yol açıyor. Ancak bunun gerçekleşmesi için çok sayıda insanın virüse karşı halihazırda bağışıklık geliştirmiş olması gerekiyor. Bu durumun SARS-CoV-2 virüsü için geçerli olup olmadığını bilim insanları henüz bilmiyor. İnsanlar, virüslerin çoğunluğuna karşı bağışıklık geliştiriyor. Özetle, bir insan bir virüsü kaptığında vücudu antikor üretiyor ve bu suretle bağışıklık kazanıyor. Bu gerçekleştiğinde de virüs insanı etkileme gücünü kaybediyor. Bunun corona virüs için geçerli olup olmadığı da henüz muamma. İncelenen birçok vakada, bir grup corona hastasının vücudunda, hastalığı geçirdikten sonra antikorlara rastlanmadı. Bu da söz konusu kişilerin virüsü yeniden kapabileceği anlamına geliyor.
SÜRÜ BAĞIŞIKLIĞI NE KADAR GERÇEKÇİ? Uzmanlar, bir kişinin virüse karşı antikor geliştirip geliştirmediğini, bir "serolojik test" uygulamak suretiyle tespit edebiliyor. Ancak bu testler, teste tabi tutulan kişinin virüse karşı bağışıklık kazanıp kazanmadığını, kazandıysa ne süreyle kazandığını tespit edemiyor. Bilim insanları şimdilerde bu sorunun yanıtını arıyor. Corona krizinde şu ana kadar birçok kez, virüse ancak ve ancak bir "sürü bağışıklığının" gem vurabileceği fikri öne sürüldü. Sürü bağışıklığı, toplum halihazırda virüse karşı bağışıklık kazandığı takdirde geçerli oluyor. Bu durumda da virüs hızlı bir biçimde yayılamıyor. Teorik olarak virüsü kontrol altında tutabilmek için , toplumun yüzde 70 ila 90'ının bağışıklık kazanmış olması gerekiyor. Tıp dergisi The Lancet 'ta kısa süre önce sürü bağışıklığına ilişkin bir makale yayımlandı. Madrid merkezli Üçüncü Carlos Sağlık Enstitüsü, İspanya Sağlık Bakanlığı ve Harvard Üniversitesi 'nde görev yapan araştırmacıların yürüttüğü araştırma, corona virüse karşı sürü bağışıklığı kazanmanın söz konusu olmayacağını su yüzüne çıkardı. 60 bin kişinin katılımıyla yürütülen araştırma, Avrupa'nın şu ana kadarki en geniş çaplı antikor çalışması olma niteliğini taşıyor. Yapılan incelemeler, İspanyolların yalnızca yüzde 5'lik kısmının virüse karşı antikor ürettiğini gözler önüne seriyor.
VİRÜS SOĞUĞU SEVİYOR Virüsler, soğuk ortamları seviyor. Virüsün özellikle sıcaklığın düşük olduğu mezbahalarda yayılması, bu durumu iyi açıklayan bir örnek. Hava sıcak olduğundaysa virüs, soğuk havadaki gibi hızlı bir biçimde yayılmıyor. Dolayısıyla yılın sıcak aylarında enfeksiyon sayılarının görece düşük olması doğal bir durum. Dışarıdaki hava soğuk olduğunda insanlar daha sık evde kalıyor. Ancak kapalı odalarda hava değişimi dışarıdaki gibi iyi ve yoğun gerçekleşmiyor. Bu çerçevede de virüsün havada yayılması kolaylaşıyor. Pandeminin başlangıcında uzmanlar, SARS-CoV-2 virüsünün yapışma ve damlalar vasıtasıyla yayıldığını düşünüyordu. Ama sonradan virüsün hava yoluyla da bulaştığının farkına varıldı. Dışarıda havanın kuru ve soğuk olması, virüs için ideal koşulların sağlandığı anlamına geliyor. „Aeresoller" soğuk günlerde havada sıcak günlere kıyasla çok daha uzun asılı kalıyor. Kuzey Yarımküre'de kış henüz başlamamış olsa da sosyal mesafe kurallarına uymak gerektiğini unutmamak gerekiyor.