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İngiltere'de bomba Kovid-19 iddiası: Karantina tedbirlerinin erken alınması ölümleri yarıya indirebilirdi İngiltere'de geliştirdiği matematiksel modelle hükümetin yeni tip koronavirüs (Kovid-19) salgınına karşı aldığı karantina tedbirlerine yol gösteren bilim insanı Neil Ferguson, tedbirlerin bir hafta önce alınması halinde ülkedeki ölümlerin yarı yarıya azalmış olabileceğini savundu. Evli sevgilisi ile sosyal mesafeyi ihlal eden Ferguson, daha önce bilim kurulu üyeliğinden istifa etmişti. takvim.com.tr Giriş Tarihi : 10 Haziran 2020 , 23:54 Güncelleme Tarihi : 10 Haziran 2020 , 23:54
Imperial College London Üniversitesinde matematiksel biyoloji profesörü olan Ferguson, İngiliz Parlamentosunun Bilim ve Teknoloji Komitesine verdiği ifadede, karantina kararının alındığı mart ayında, virüsün yayıldığı kişi sayısının 5-6 günde ikiye katlandığının tahmin edildiğini, oysa bu sürenin 3-4 gün olduğunun anlaşıldığını belirtti.
Karantina tedbirlerinin bir hafta gecikmesinin vaka sayısını 4 kat arttırdığı çıkarımında bulunan Neil Ferguson, "Eğer önlemleri bir hafta önce almış olsaydık, nihai ölüm sayısı en az yarı yarıya azalırdı. " ifadesini kullandı.
Ferguson ayrıca, yaşlı bakım evleriyle ilgili özel önlemlerin alınması halinde ölü sayısının çok daha az olacağının altını çizdi.
Neil Ferguson ve meslektaşları, 16 Mart'ta yayımladıkları makalede, sosyal mesafe kuralları uygulansa dahi virüsün mevcut yayılma hızıyla İngiltere'de 250 bin, ABD'de ise 1 milyon ölümle karşılaşılabileceği uyarısında bulunmuştu. Makalede en kötü senaryoda rakamların çok daha vahim olabileceğine vurgu yapılmıştı.
Makalenin yayımlanmasından bir gün sonra İngiltere Başbakanı Boris Johnson, vatandaşlara evlerinden çalışmaları, mümkün olmadıkça dışarı çıkmamaları tavsiyesinde bulunmuş, ardından 23 Mart'ta ülke genelinde kapsamlı karantina tedbirleri alınarak, okullar, dükkanlar, restoranlar, ibadethaneler kapatılmış, sokağa çıkma kısıtlamaları uygulanmaya başlanmıştı.
KARANTİNA TEDBİRLERİ AVRUPA'DA 3,1 MİLYON ÖLÜMÜ ÖNLEMİŞ OLABİLİR Öte yandan, İngiltere'nin Imperial College London Üniversitesinden araştırmacılar, sonuçlarını 8 Haziran'da "Nature" dergisinde yayımladıkları yeni araştırmada, Kovid-19 salgını nedeniyle farklı ülkelerde uygulanan karantina tedbirlerinin Avrupa'da 3,1 milyon insanın ölümünü önlediği tahmininde bulunmuştu.
Bilim insanları, bulaşma ve ölüm oranlarına dayanarak geliştirdikleri matematiksel modelde, karantina tedbirlerinin uygulanmaması halinde bu ülkelerde 12 ila 15 milyon kişinin, yani nüfusun yüzde 3,2'si ila 4'ünün enfekte olacağı ve bunun 3,1 milyon ilave can kaybına yol açacağını hesaplamıştı.
Araştırmacılar, önlemlerin virüsün bulaşma oranını düşürerek salgının kontrol altına alınmasını sağladığını da vurgulamıştı.
İngiltere'de bugüne kadar 290 bin 143 Kovid-19 vakası görülürken, virüs nedeniyle 41 bin 128 kişi yaşamını yitirdi.
Çin'in Vuhan kentinde Aralık 2019'da ortaya çıkan yeni tip koronavirüs 200'den fazla ülke ve bölgeye yayılarak küresel salgına dönüştü. Dünya genelinde vaka sayısı 7 milyonu aşarken, 400 binden fazla kişi hayatını kaybetti.