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İran Araştırmaları Merkezi (
İRAM ) Başkanı
Hakkı Uygur ile
ABD seçim leri ve İran'la ilişkilerini konuştuk...
Böyle bir anlşama olabilir, çok da mümkün gözüküyor. Biden bunu seçim kampanyalarında denği gibi, Trump'ın 4 yıllık iktidarında da bunları dile getirdi. Ayrıca bir çok Demokrat'da bu anlaşmadan Trump'ın çıkmasının hata olduğunu söylemişti. Ama gerek Demokrat, gerekse de Cumhuriyetçi'lerden Trump'a gelen eleştiriler, daha çok biçimsel nedenlerden dolayı. Her iki kesim de İran'ın balistik füzeleri, bölgesel politikaları Amerika açısından kabul edilemez. İran'ın Irak, Suriye, Yemen, Lübnana'daki varlığı Amerika için kabul edilebilir değildir diyorlar.
İran tarafında durum nasıl?
Hamaney yönetimindeki devletin çelik çekirdeğini oluşturan devletin asli unsuru, Amerika ile bu konularda müzakereye yanaşmıyorlar. Ne nükleer ne de bölgesel konularda bir müzakere yapılmasını doğru bulmuyor. Hatta bu anlaşma ABD ile imzalandığında, Ruhani'yi açıkca uyararak bir daha Amerika ile bir anlaşma yapmama konusunda uyarmışlardı.
İRAN EKONOMİSİ ÇÖKMÜŞ DURUMDA
Ambargoların devam etmesi ve pandemi sürecini de yaşayan İran'ın ekonomik durumu nasıl?
İran'ın ekonomik olarak durumu çok kötü. 2018-19'da yüzde 15'ten fazla küçüldü. Ruhani döneminde 3500 olan Dolar bugün 35.000 tümen'e kadar çıktı. Biden'in seçilmesi ile 25.000'lere geriledi. Bütün makro göstergeler kötü. Pandemi süreci ile sorunlar katmerleşmiş durumda. İran bu sorunlarla uzun süre daha gidemeyeceğini biliyor.
İKTİDAR HALKI SOKAK OLAYLARINA KARŞI TEHDİT EDİYOR
İktidar bu ekonomik çöküntüyü nasıl anlatıyor?
Yönetim anlaşmadan çıkanın Amerika olduğunu söylüyor. ''Bu bizim suçumuz değil, biz direnmeliyiz. Direnmezsek vereceğimiz tavizin haddi hesabı yoktur'' diyorlar.
Geçen yıl çok ciddi toplumsal gösteriler yapıldı. Uluslararası Af Örgütünün verilerine göre 1.500 kişi sokaklarda öldürüldü. Bu olay son 40 yılda İran için benzersiz bir sayı. Yönetim böyle bir durumda toplumu da tehdit ediyor. Böylesi sokak olayları olursa çok sert mesajlar veriyor. İktidar bu ve benzeri olaylara karşı hazırlıklar ve tatbikatlar yaparak olası gösterilere karşı hazırlanıyor. Yönetim gözdağı vererek; etrafınıza bakın, Irak, Afganistan, Suriye'nin durumunu görüyorsunuz. Sizde öyle olursunuz diye halkı susturuyor. Halk ise söylenenlere pek itibar etmiyor artık yaşanan ekonomik sıkıntılardan dolayı ne oalcaksa olsun düşüncesinde.
ABD YAPTIRIMLARI İÇTE HEDEFİNE ULAŞTI
Amerika bu yaptırımlarla İran'ın gücünü içeride ve dışarıda kırabildi mi?
Yaptırımlarla İran 'ın gücü içeride çok ciddi kırıldı. Halkın seçim lere katılım oranı çok ciddi oranda düştü. Ekonomik çöküntü yaşanıyor. Hükümete inançları kalmadı. Halkta ve elitlerde bu umutsuzluğu çok açık hissedebiliyorsunuz. Sokaklarda atılan sloganların dili radikalleşiyor.
Ama dışarıda gücü pek kırılamadı. Kasim Süleymani'nin öldürmesi ve benzeri darbeler vurulduysa da Amerika ve İsrail yapısal bir sonuç alabilmiş değil. Mesela Suriye'deki İran varlığı hala güçlü olarak devam ediyor. Lübnan'da Hizbullah temel etken hala belirleyici. Irak'ta, Yemen'de durum aynı şekilde gücünü İran koruyor.
'İRAN SAVAŞ İLE DURDURULABİLİR'
Biden'in seçim kazanmasından sonra İran'ın Nükleer Silah konusunda yetkin fizikçi Muhsin Fahrizade suikast sonucu hayatını kaybetti. Bu olay Biden'in anlaşma yapmasını engellemek için mi yapıldı?
Bu suikast Biden'in elini zayıflatmaya yönelikti. İsrail, Biden'a, eğer benim endişelerimi göz önüne almazsan ben gerektiğinde tek başıma da hareket ederim demek istiyor. Bu aynı zamanda İran 'a yönelikte bir mesaj anlamına geliyor. Nükleer Programın başındaki adamı öldürerek ülke içine sızdığını bu gibi suikastları yapabileceğini söylüyor. Hatta İsrail, ABD ile İran arasında bir savaş dahi çıkarabilirim demek istiyor. İsrail önce fitili ateşleyip sonra Amerika'ya gel bu işi temizle diyebilir. Trump, İsrail ve Pompeo'ya açık çek verip; Üçüncü Dünya Savaşı çıkarmadığınız sürece İran'a ne kadar baskı yaparsanız yapın sonuç alamazsınız diye açıklaması var. Biden koltuğa oturana kadar bu gibi saldırılar olabilir. Sonrasında Biden'a anlaşma yapmaması için tavır almış olabilir.
BİDEN İSRAİL'E ÇOK YAKIN
Obama dönemindeki ABD-İsrail gerilimi Biden devam ettirecek mi?
Biden ile İsrail arasında bir gerilim yaşanmaz. Böyle bir şey yaşanmaz. Demokratlar'da Biden da en az Trump kadar İsrail'e yakın durumdalar. İsrail bu hamleleri yaparak Biden'in de elini kolaylaştırıyor. Yarın Biden İran ile pazarlığa oturunca elini daha da güçlendirmiş olacak. İran'ın söylendiği kadar güçlü olmadığını, son yıllarda ülke içinde yapılan operasyonlarla da göstermiş oldu. Biden'in Kudüs'ün başkent ilan edilmesine de destek verecektir. İsrail politikalarında temel bir değişiklik beklememek gerekir. Biden'in ilk görüşmesi Ürün kralı ile olması bir mesajdır.
ÇİN İRAN İLE ÇOK YAKIN OLMAK İSTENMİYOR
İran'ın Çin ile 25 yıllık stratejik anlaşması gündemde. Böyle bir anlaşma yapıldı mı?
İran ekonomisi çok büyük ölçüde Avrupa ile yapılıyor. Otomotiv sektörü üretimi büyük oranda Fransa tarafından gerçekleştiriliyor. Almanya'nın ciddi yatırımları var. İran tarafı 25 yıllık Çin ile stratejik anlaşmadan söz ediyor fakat Çin tarafı bunu doğrulamadı. Çin'li yetkililer bu konuda çok hevesli değiller. Çinli hiç bir yetkilşden böyle bir anlaşma yapıldığına dair açıklama gelmedi. Çin tarafı Orta Doğu'da İran muhalifi ülkelerle de iş yapmaya çalışıyor. İran ile anlaşma o ülkelrle ilişkileri sıkıntıya sokabilir.
Biden iktidara gelince nasıl bir İran politikası uygulamayı planlıyor?
Biden İran ile bir uzlaşma yapmak için 2015 yılında yapılan aanlaşmaya ek maddeler getirecektir. Çünkü İran'ın eli çok zayıfladı. Ekonomik sıkıntılar yaşamakta. Biden'in politikasında sadece şekilsel farklılıklar olacaktır. Özünde farklılık olamaz. İran tarafı mevcut Nükleer Anlaşma'nın yapılması ile iç kamuoyında bunu kullanarak diğer anlaşmaları yapmak isteyecektir. İran'ın bunu söyleyecek gücü yok ama Ruhani Hükümeti bunu deneyecektir. Almanya Dışişleri Bakanı Maas'ın açıklaması var; Birinci anlaşma öldü, yeniden bir anlaşma yapılması gerekir diye. İran'ın Avrupa'dan Almanya'dan çok büyük beklentisi vardı... NASIL OLUYOR? / ALİ DEĞERMENCİ