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Çinli yapay zekâ girişimi DeepSeek 'in rakiplerinin aksine çok az bütçe ve çip kullanımıyla piyasayı sallaması teknoloji liderlerinin şüpheyle yaklaşmasına neden oldu. Elon Musk ve Palmer Luckey de şüpheci yaklaşım sergileyen isimlerin başında geliyor.
Üretken yapay zekayı güçlendirme alanında neredeyse tekel konumunda olan Kaliforniya merkezli Nvidia'nın hisseleri pazartesi günü yüzde 17 düşüş gösterdi ve çip devinin piyasa değerinden yaklaşık 593 milyar dolar silindi. Bu rakam, İsveç'in gayri safi yurt içi hasılasıyla (GSYİH) kıyaslanabilir bir değer. Google ve OpenAI ile rekabet edebilecek yeteneklere sahip bir yapay zekâ modeliyle şok dalgalarına neden olan Çinli DeepSeek'in R1'i, Silikon Vadisi 'ndeki son modellerin maliyetinin çok altında geliştirdiğini duyurması, ABD 'nin yapay zekâ alanındaki hakimiyeti ve önde gelen teknoloji şirketlerinin fahiş piyasa değerleri hakkındaki varsayımları sorgulatmaya başladı. Bazı şüpheciler, DeepSeek'in kısıtlı bir bütçeyle çalıştığı iddiasına itiraz ederek firmanın muhtemelen kabul ettiğinden daha gelişmiş çiplere ve daha fazla fona erişimi olduğunu öne sürdü.
"ELON MUSK'TAN DEEPSEEK'İN YÜKSELİŞİNDEN ŞÜPHE EDENLERE DESTEK"
ABD Başkanı Donald Trump'ın en yakın sırdaşlarından teknoloji milyarderi Elon Musk, Wang'ın iddiasıyla ilgili X'te yaptığı paylaşımın altına "Elbette" yazarak DeepSeek'in şüphecilerine destek verdi.
Washington Üniversitesi'nde Bilgisayar Bilimi ve Mühendisliği alanında emekli profesör olan Pedro Domingos, Al Jazeera'ya konuştu. "DeepSeek'in iddialarının olduğu gibi kabul edilip edilemeyeceği çok açık bir soru. Yapay zekâ topluluğu bunları araştıracak ve biz de öğreneceğiz" ifadelerini kullanan Domingos, "6 milyon dolarla bir model eğitebilecekleri bana makul geliyo r.Ancak bunun, daha pahalı olan modellerin ince ayarının ve son işlemesinin maliyeti olması ve DeepSeek'in başkalarının daha pahalı modellerine dayanarak bunu yapamaması da oldukça olası." diye ekledi.
Elon Musk, DeepSeek'in şüphecilerine destek verdi. (AA)
ABD KONTROLLERİNE UYMAK İÇİN AZ GELİŞMİŞ ÇİP KULLANDILAR
Bir araştırma makalesinde DeepSeek geliştirme ekibi, başlangıçta ABD ihracat kontrollerine uymak için tasarlanmış daha az gelişmiş bir çip olan 2.000 adet Nvidia H800 GPU kullandıklarını ve R1'in temel modeli olan V3'ü eğitmek için 5,6 milyon dolar harcadıklarını söyledi.
MALİYETİ 100 MİLYON DOLARDAN FAZLA
OpenAI CEO'su Sam Altman, chatbot GPT-4'ü geliştirmenin 100 milyon dolardan fazla maliyet gerektirdiğini belirtirken analistler modelin 25.000'e kadar daha gelişmiş H100 GPU kullandığını tahmin ediyor.
Seri girişimci Liang Wenfeng tarafından 2023'ün sonlarında kurulan DeepSeek'in duyurusu, yapay zekâ alanında öncü olmak isteyen şirketlerin veri merkezlerine ve büyük miktarlarda pahalı üst düzey çiplere milyarlarca dolar yatırım yapması gerektiği yönündeki yaygın inancı altüst etti.
Ayrıca Washington'un en gelişmiş çiplerin ihracatını yasaklayarak Çin'in yapay zeka sektörünü kısıtlama çabalarının ne kadar etkili olduğu konusunda da soru işaretleri oluştu.
Sanal gerçeklik şirketi Oculus VR'ın kurucusu Palmer Luckey, DeepSeek'in iddia edilen bütçesini ʺsahteʺ olarak nitelendirdi. (AFP)
"SAHTE" BÜTÇE İDDİASI
DeepSeek'in R1'i yayınlamasının en azından önemli bir başarıyı temsil ettiği konusunda geniş bir fikir birliği olsa da bazı önemli gözlemciler iddiaların olduğu gibi kabul edilmemesi konusunda uyarıyor.
Sanal gerçeklik şirketi Oculus VR'ın kurucusu Palmer Luckey, DeepSeek'in iddia edilen bütçesini "sahte" olarak nitelendirdi ve çok sayıda "yararlı aptalın" "Çin propagandasına" kandığını söyledi.
"TRUMP'IN BAŞARISIZ OLMASINI İSTİYOR"
Luckey, X'te yayınlanan bir gönderide şunları söyledi:
Çinli bir yatırım fonu tarafından Amerikan yapay zekâ girişimlerine yapılan yatırımları yavaşlatmaya, Nvidia gibi Amerikan devlerine karşı kendi kısa pozisyonlarını yönetmeye ve yaptırımlardan kaçınmayı gizlemeye zorlanıyor. Amerika bu tür psikolojik operasyonlar için verimli bir yatak çünkü medya aygıtımız teknoloji şirketlerimizden nefret ediyor ve Başkan Trump'ın başarısız olmasını istiyor.
50.000 ADET ÇİPE ERİŞİMİ VAR
Geçtiğimiz hafta CNBC'ye verdiği röportajda Scale AI CEO'su Alexandr Wang da DeepSeek 'in açıklamalarına şüpheyle yaklaşarak şirketin ABD 'nin ihracat kontrolleri nedeniyle konuşamayacağı 50.000 adet daha gelişmiş H100 çipine erişimi olduğunu "anladığını" söylemesine karşın iddiasını destekleyen bir kanıt sunmadı.
DeepSeek doktora adayı Zihan Wang, eleştirmenlerine ʺKonuşmak ucuzʺ dedi. (AFP)
"KONUŞMAK UCUZ" YANITI GELDİ
DeepSeek yorum taleplerine yanıt vermedi ancak DeepSeek'in daha önceki bir modeli üzerinde çalışan doktora adayı Zihan Wang, girişimin eleştirmenlerine "Konuşmak ucuz" diyerek karşılık verdi. Wang, DeepSeek'in iddialarının olduğu gibi kabul edilmemesi gerektiği yönündeki sorulara X kanalında verdiği yanıtta, "Eleştirmek kolay" dedi.
GÖNDERMELİ POST
Wang, boş konuşan insanlar hakkında bir Çin deyiminin İngilizce çevirisini kullanarak "Kod üzerinde çalışmaya daha fazla zaman ayırıp DeepSeek fikrini kendileri yeniden üretirlerse kağıt üzerinde konuşmaktan daha iyi olur" diye ekledi.
DeepSeek 'in 6 milyon dolardan az harcadığına ve R1'in temel modelini eğitmek için daha az gelişmiş çipler kullandığına inanıp inanmadığına ilişkin soruya doğrudan yanıt vermedi.
Liang, 2023 yılında Çin medya kuruluşu Waves'e verdiği röportajda şirketinin, dönemin ABD Başkanı Joe Biden yönetiminin ihracatını yasaklamasından önce H800'den daha eski olan Nvidia'nın A100 yongalarından 10.000 adet stokladığını söylemişti.
R1 KULLANICILARI, KISITLAMALARA MARUZ KALIYOR
R1 kullanıcıları, ayrıca Çin kökenli olması nedeniyle karşılaştığı kısıtlamalara da dikkat çekiyor. Bunlardan biri de Pekin tarafından hassas kabul edilen konuların sansürlenmesi. Bunlar arasında 1989 Tiananmen Meydanı katliamı ve Tayvan'ın statüsü de yer alıyor.
YÜZDE 9 DEĞER KAZANDI
DeepSeek'in ABD teknoloji sektörü üzerindeki potansiyel etkisine ilişkin ilk paniğin azalmaya başladığına dair bir işaret olarak Nvidia'nın hisse senedi fiyatı Salı günü yaklaşık yüzde 9 oranında toparlandı. Teknoloji ağırlıklı Nasdaq 100 endeksi, bir önceki gün yüzde 3'ten fazla düştükten sonra yüzde 1,59 yükseldi.
Queensland Üniversitesi'nde yapay zeka konusunda uzman profesör olan Tim Miller, DeepSeek'in iddialarına ne kadar güvenilmesi gerektiğini söylemenin zor olduğunu söyledi.
Miller, Al Jazeera'ye yaptığı açıklamada "Model, nasıl çalıştığına dair birkaç ayrıntıyı kendisi veriyor ancak iddia ettikleri ana değişikliklerin maliyetleri -anladığım kadarıyla- modelin kendisinde çok fazla 'görünmüyor'" dedi.
Nvidia'nın hisse senedi fiyatı Salı günü yaklaşık yüzde 9 oranında toparlandı. (EPA)
Miller herhangi bir "alarm zili" görmediğini ancak araştırma makalesine güvenmek için hem lehte hem de aleyhte makul argümanlar bulunduğunu söyledi.
Miller, "Bu atılım inanılmaz - neredeyse 'gerçek olamayacak kadar iyi' bir tarz. Maliyetlerin dökümü belirsiz " dedi. Öte yandan bilgisayar biliminde zaman zaman çığır açan gelişmelerin yaşandığını da belirterek "Başkalarının bunu yeniden üretmesinin oldukça kolay olduğunu bildikleri için, herkesi kandırırlarsa aptal görüneceklerini biliyorlardı. Çalışmayı yeniden üretmeye çalışan bir ekip zaten var." diye konuştu.
Kâr amacı gütmeyen CivAI'nin kurucu ortağı Lucas Hansen, DeepSeek 'in ABD ihracat kontrollerini atlatıp atlatmadığını bilmenin zor olduğunu söylerken girişimin iddia ettiği eğitim bütçesinin R1'in kendisi değil OpenAI 'nin GPT-4'üne kabaca eşdeğer olan V3'e atıfta bulunduğunu söyledi.
Hansen, "GPT-4 eğitimi 2022'nin sonlarında tamamladı. 2022'den bu yana çok sayıda algoritmik ve donanım iyileştirmesi yapıldı ve bu da GPT-4 sınıf modelinin eğitim maliyetini düşürdü. Benzer bir durum GPT-2 için de yaşandı. O zamanlar eğitim ciddi bir girişimdi ancak şimdi 90 dakikada 20 dolara eğitebiliyorsunuz." dedi.
"AKILLI YÖNTEMLER KULLANARAK R1'İ OLUŞTURDU"
Hansen şöyle konuştu
DeepSeek, temel bir modeli (bu durumda V3) alarak ve bu temel modele daha dikkatli düşünmeyi öğretmek için bazı akıllı yöntemler uygulayarak R1'i oluşturdu. Bu öğretim süreci, temel modeli eğitmenin fiyatıyla karşılaştırıldığında nispeten ucuzdur. DeepSeek artık temel bir modeli bir düşünme modeline nasıl başlatacağınıza dair ayrıntıları yayınladığına göre çok sayıda yeni düşünme modeli göreceğiz.