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Dolar devri kapanıyor! Dev bankadan müşterilerine uyarı geldi. Dolar için JP Morgan'dan ilginç tespitler geldi. Eğer bu olursa ülkeleri dolar üzerinden tehdit edemeyecekler. JP Morgan doların çok yakın zamanda küresel rezerv para statüsünü kaybedebileceği aktarılırken, müşterilerini buna göre pozisyon almaları gerektiği konusunda uyardı. Amerikan doları, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nin resmî para birimidir. ABD doları diye de adlandırılır. Dünyada en yaygın kullanılan dövizdir. 2004 yılında dünyada dolaşımda yaklaşık 950 milyar Amerikan doları olduğu tahmin edilmektedir. Bu miktarın 2/3'ü ABD dışındadır
DETAYLAR İÇİN BİR SONRAKİ SAYFAYA TIKLAYINIZ
Bankanın döviz, emtia ve faiz stratejisti Craig Cohen, privatebank.jpmorgan.com sitesinde yayınlanan "Dolar aşırıya kaçan ayrıcalığının sonuna mı geliyor?" başlıklı makalesinde; Amerikan parasının yaklaşık 100 yıldır küresel rezerv para olduğunu ve sadece Amerikalıların değil dünyanın her yerinde bir çok yatırımcının portföylerinde dolar ağırlığı oluşturarak rahat ettiğini vurguladı ve ekledi:
"Ancak doların dünyanın hakim parası olma özelliğini kaybedebileceğine inanıyoruz. Yapısal nedenler ve dönemsel engeller nedeniyle (orta vadede değerini yitirebilir)."
Doların rezerv para statüsünü genelde düşünüldüğü gibi 1944 Bretton Woods antlaşması ile değil daha çok 1913'te ABD Merkez Bankası'nın (Fed) kuruluşu ile elde ettiğini ileri süren Cohen; ilerleyen yıllarda Amerika'nın sürekli hale gelen dış açıklarını dünya çapında geçerli para olan doları basarak ve sürekli borçlanarak ithalat yapıp kapattığını anlattı.
YÜKSELEN ASYA
Cohen, doların hakim rolünü sürekli olacağına dair bir işaret olmadığının altını çizdi ve ekledi:
"Aksine binlerce yıl geriye baktığımızda, dünyada 'ekonomik merkez' değiştikçe uluslararası hakim para birimlerinin de değiştiğini görüyoruz. İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrasında ABD küresel üretimin (GSYİH) yüzde 25'inden fazlasını gerçekleştiriyordu. Batı Avrupalı güçleri de eklediğimizde bu oran yüzde 40'a çıkıyordu. Oysa o dönemden sonra ekonomik büyümenin itici gücü ABD ve Batı aleyhine Asya'ya doğru kaydı. Yüksek büyüme ve kararlı reformlar ile Çin bu ekonomik değişimin merkezinde yer alıyor. Son 70 yılda Çin dünya üretimi içindeki payını yaklaşık dört kat arttırarak yüzde 20'ler seviyesine (yani ABD ile aynı düzeye) ulaştırdı ve bu alanda genişlemeye devam etmesi bekleniyor. Çin artık sadece düşük maliyetli ürünler üreten bir imalatçı değil. Son dönemde şirket kararlarının giderek artan bir bölümü teknoloji gibi yüksek katma değerli sektörlerden geliyor."
Çin dışında, Hindistan dahil Güney Asya ülkelerinin de genç nüfusları ve sürekli artan teknolojik know-how birikimleri ile yüksek büyüme performansları gösterdiğini aktaran Cohen; Batıda Türkiye ve Arap Yarımadası ile başlayıp Doğuda Japonya ve Yeni Zelanda'ya uzanan ve Kuzeyde Rusya'dan Güneyde Avustralya'ya ulaşan 'Asya Ekonomik Bölgesinin' şimdilerde küresel üretimin yüzde 50'sini gerçekleştirdiğini vurguladı ve ekledi:
"2015-2030 döneminde oluşacağı tahmin edilen 30 trilyon dolarlık orta sınıf tüketimi büyümesinin sadece 1 trilyon dolarının Batı ülkelerinden gelmesi bekleniyor... Gelecek on yıllarda dünya ekonomisinin ABD merkezli ve dolar hakimiyetinde olan bir sistemden Asya'nın daha fazla güç sahibi olduğu yeni bir sisteme geçeceğini düşünüyoruz. Para alanında bu, muhtemelen doların diğer para birimleri ve altın gibi emtialardan oluşan bir döviz sepetine karşı değer kaybedeceği anlamına geliyor."
DOLAR KÜRESEL HAKİMİYETİNİ ÇOKTAN KAYBETMEYE BAŞLADI
Küresel merkez bankalarının rezervlerinde tuttukları dolar miktarına bakıldığında değişimin çoktan başladığının görülebileceğini belirten Cohen, özellikle 2008 Krizi sonrasında dünya merkez bankalarının rezervlerindeki dolar miktarının yüzde 64'lerden yüzde 55'lere gerilediğini belirtti. Ayrıca Euro'nun tedavüle girdiği 1999 yılından bu yana ilk defa dünya merkez bankalarının aynı anda dolar satıp euro aldıklarına dikkat çeken Cohen küresel merkez bankalarının altın alımlarının da rekor seviyeye yükseldiğini vurguladı.
Stratejist Cohen, "2018 yılında altın, merkez bankalarından 1971'den bu yana en yüksek talebi gördü. Arka arkaya dört çeyrek dönem yaşanan altın alımları ise kayıtlarda yer alan en yüksek rekor seviyeye ulaştı. Bizce bu mantıklı: Kendisini destekleyen insanlar arasında sürdürdüğü binlerce yıllık güven ile altın istikrarlı bir değer kaynağı." dedi.
"Ticaret Savaşları" gibi politikaların dünyada dolar kullanımını daha da azaltabileceğini ve her geçen gün farklı ülkelerin doları dışlayan yeni ödeme sistemleri geliştirdiğini anlatan Cohen, bankanın müşterilerini de şöyle uyardı:
"Müşteri portföylerini tanıdığımızda bir çoğunun bizim 'tedbirli' olarak düşüneceğimizden daha fazla dolar pozisyonu tuttuklarını görüyoruz. Ekonomik döngünün bu noktasında portföylerin bu alanının daha çeşitlendirilmiş olması gerektiğine inanıyoruz. Bir çok durumda muhtemelen bizim tavsiyemiz diğer G10 Para birimlerine, Asya para birimlerine ve altına daha fazla ağırlık vermek olacaktır."
DOLAR KURU TAHMİNİ
Merkez Bankası tarafından yayımlanan duyuruda 2020 yılı sonunda dolar kuru nun 6.41 olacağının beklendiğine, Ocak 2021 'de ise 6,43 TL olacağına yer verildi. Açıklama şu şekilde;
"2020 yıl sonu döviz kuru (ABD Doları/TL) beklentisi bu anket döneminde 6,41 TL olmuştur. 12 ay sonrası döviz kuru beklentisi ise bir önceki anket dönminde 6,35 TL iken, bu anket döneminde 6,43 TL olarak gerçekleşmiştir"
DOLAR NEDİR?
Amerikan doları, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nin resmî para birimidir. ABD doları diye de adlandırılır. Dünyada en yaygın kullanılan dövizdir. 2004 yılında dünyada dolaşımda yaklaşık 950 milyar Amerikan doları olduğu tahmin edilmektedir. Bu miktarın 2/3'ü ABD dışındadır