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Yatırım yapanlara uyarı gibi bir haber veriyoruz. Bu bağlamda petrol fiyatlarının düşmesi dolar fiyatlarını ateşleyebilir. Brent petrol de teknik olarak 37,51 ile 38,04 dolar aralığının direnç, 36,99 ile 36,47 dolar aralığının ise destek bölgesi olarak izlenebileceği ifade ediliyor. Dolar fiyatlarının kalıcılık sağlayamama sebeplerinin başında şu 3 maddeyi yazabiliriz. Her iki petrol türünün varil fiyatı dün 12 Şubat 2016'dan beri en düşük seviyesine gerilerken, günlük kayıpları Ocak 1991'deki Körfez Savaşı'ndan bu yana en büyük yüzdelik düşüş olarak kayıtlara geçmişti. Uzmanlar, koronavirüsten etkilenen büyük ekonomilerin atacağı adımların önemine dikkati çekerek, ekonomik teşviklerin dünya genelinde petrol talebini artıracağını belirtiyor.
DETAYLAR İÇİN BİR SONRAKİ SAYFAYA TIKLAYINIZ
- ABD parasının değerli oluşunu istemiyor.
- Türkiye spekülatif olarak yükseltilen dolar ile mücadele etmeyi öğrendi. (Swap, Forex vb.)
- ABD'de yaşanan faiz indirimleri ve devamının geleceği beklentisi.
Bu 3 sebepten ötürü dolar gittiği noktalarda kalıcılık sağlayamıyordu. Bunun yanında Türkiye ekonomisinin gerçekleri de var. Hızlı yükselen enflasyon, ekonomik durgunluk, işsizlik vb. gibi göstergeler Türk Lirasını dolar karşısında güçsüz bırakıyordu. Suriye'de mutabakat sağlanması bir nebze doların gerilemesine sebep olsa da Merkez Bankası nın üst üste faiz de indirim yapması ve corona virüsü tehdidi tekrar yukarı yönlü hareketlendirdi. Şimdilerde ise petrol anlaşmazlığı tedirginliği doları diri tutuyor.
Dolar saat 15:16 itibariyle 6.12 fiyatından işlem görüyor.
Dolar Ortalama Üzerinde!
USDTRY-Petrol Fiyatlarına İlişkin Küresel Endişelerle Yükseliyor...
Cuma günü OPEC toplantısında üretimin kısılması yönünde anlaşma çıkmamasının ardından, Suudi Arabistan petrol şirketi Saudi Aramco haftasonu ihraç ettiği petrolün varil fiyatlarına 3.75$ ile 10.25$ arasında indirime gitti. Bu kararın ardından düşen petrol fiyatlarının yarattığı küresel endişeyle birlikte USDTRY paritesi 6.1970 direncine kadar yükseldi. Bu direncin geçilememesiyle de geri çekilmeler oldu. Geri çekilmenin devamında 6.0500 ve 5.9700 destek olarak izlenebilir. Yukarı yönlü işlemlerde ise 6.1490 ve 6.1970 direnç oluşturabilir.
Destekler;6.0500-5.9700-5.9315 Dirençler: 6.1490-6.1970-6.2930
Merkez Bankası nın faiz leri düşürmesi dolara olan talebi arttırdı.
Faizden kazanç oranı düşenlerin döviz ve borsaya yönelmesi ile birlikte dolar ve borsa da yükselişler bekleniyor. Dolara yönelen faiz yatırımcısı ile birlikte doların 6.25 lira seviyelerini aşabileceği söyleniyor.
FİYATLARIN YÖNÜ NE OLACAK?
Uzmanlar, koronavirüsten etkilenen büyük ekonomilerin atacağı adımların önemine dikkati çekerek, ekonomik teşviklerin dünya genelinde petrol talebini artıracağını belirtiyor.
Brent petrol de teknik olarak 37,51 ile 38,04 dolar aralığının direnç, 36,99 ile 36,47 dolar aralığının ise destek bölgesi olarak izlenebileceği ifade ediliyor.
Petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüş Türkiye ekonomisine yarayacak! Faturalar düşecek mi?
Petrol deki düşüş Türkiye 'nin hem cari açığına hem de vatandaşın yakıt faturasına olumlu şekilde yansıyacak. Petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşün, bu gece yarısından itibaren benzin fiyatlarına indirim olarak yansıması bekleniyor. Enerji Bakanı Fatih Dönmez, petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşün pompaya nasıl yansıyacağına ilişkin,"Enerji Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu (EPDK) ham petrol lerdeki değişimi ve diğer maliyetlerdeki değişimin hangi sıklıklarla pompaya yansıyacağını belirlemiş durumda. O mekanizmayı arkadaşlar çalışıyor. Şu anda rakam telaffuz etmemiz doğru olmaz. Öteden beri şunu rahatlıkla söylüyoruz; ham petrol fiyatlarındaki artış veya eksiliş pompaya zaten yansıyor" açıklaması yaptı. CARİ AÇIĞI AZALTACAK
Enerji Petrol Gaz İkmal İstasyonları İşveren Sendikası (EPGİS) Başkanı Fesih Aktaş, petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşün net ithalatçı konumda olan Türkiye için olumlu bir hava yarattığını ifade etti. Aktaş, "Haliyle bu alanda net ithalatçı olan ülkemizin enerji faturası düşecek. Ancak üretimin azalıp azalmayacağı konusuna da odaklanmak lazım. Açıkçası 1991 Körfez krizinden bu yana bu tür sert düşüşler görmedi. Bu nedenle fiyatlarda indirim olması kaçınılmaz" dedi. Petrol fiyatlarındaki gerileme, Türkiye'nin cari açığını da 4 milyar dolar azaltacak. Petroldeki 1 dolarlık düşüş, cari dengeye 400 milyon dolar olumlu katkı yapıyor.
KORKU ENDEKSİ UÇTU
Geçen hafta ABD Merkez Bankası 'nın (Fed ) olağanüstü toplantı ile politika faiz ini indirmesine karşın piyasa fiyatlamaları, Fed'in 18 Mart'taki toplantıda da 25-50 baz puanlık indirim yapabileceğine işaret ediyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankası'nın da bu haftaki toplantıda yüzde eksi 0.50 olan mevduat faizinde 10 baz puanlık indirime gidebileceği tahmin ediliyor. Piyasalardaki oynaklığın arttığına dikkati çeken analistler, korku endeksi olarak tanımlanan VIX endeksinin 54 ile 2008 krizinden bu yana en yüksek seviyesini gördüğüne dikkat çekti
ENERJİ HİSSELERİ ÇAKILDI
Petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüş, enerji hisselerini de sarstı. Suudi Arabistan 'da bu yıl halka açılan Aramco'nun hisseleri yüzde 7 düşerek halka arz fiyatının altına geriledi. BP'nin hisseleri yüzde 24, Exxon yüzde 14, Tullow Oil yüzde 57 geriledi. Shell'deki kayıp ise yüzde 12'yi aştı. Analistler, petrol fiyatlarına bağlı vadeli işlem kontratlarında zararkes satışlarının tetiklenmesinin de düşüşü hızlandırdığını vurguladı. FED PARA MUSLUĞUNU AÇTI
Piyasalarda dün yaşanan depreme kayıtsız kalamayan Fed, gecelik ve vadeli repo ihale miktarlarını artırdı. Geceli işlemlerde piyasaya verilecek nakit miktarı, 12 Mart'a kadar 100 milyar dolardan en az 150 milyar dolara çıkarıldı. 10 Mart ve 12 Mart'taki 14 gün vadeli repo işlemlerinde miktar 20 milyar dolardan en az 45 milyar dolara yükseltildi. Açıklamada, artışların riski ortadan kaldırmak için yapıldığı kaydedildi.
Pompada dev indirim! Benzinde 73, motorinde 60 kuruş...
Petrol, Rusya ve Suudi Arabistan üretimi kısmakta anlaşamayınca, Körfez Savaşı'nın yaşandığı yıl olan 1991'den bu yana en sert günlük düşüşünü yaşadı. Petrol İhraç Eden Ülkeler Örgütü (OPEC) ve OPEC dışı bazı ham petrol üreticisi ülkelerin toplantısından üretim kesintisi kararının çıkmaması sonrası Brent petrol ün varil fiyatı dün yüzde 30'u aşkın değer kaybıyla 45 dolardan 31 dolar seviyesine geriledi. Böylece petrolde Ocak 2016'dan bu yana en düşük seviye görüldü. Sert düşüşün ardından kayıplarının bir kısmını geri alan petrol, 35 doların üzerine çıktı.
Petrol fiyatlarındaki sert düşüşün ardından, pompada büyük indirim göründü. Bu gece yarısı benzinde 73 kuruş , motorinde ise 60 kuruş indirim yapılması bekleniyor. İndirim ile birlikte benzin uzun aranın ardından tüm illerde 6 liranın altına düşecek. 50 litre deposu olan bir aracın deposu 39 lira daha aza dolacak. Yine 50 litrelik depoda motorin için ise 30 lira daha az ödenecek. 24 Temmuz 2017 - 47.68 30 Kasım 2017 - 63.21 22 Haziran 2018 - 75.83 26 Aralık 2018 - 49.93 1 Temmuz 2019 - 66.75 6 Aralık 2019 - 64.88 8 Ocak 2020 - 71.75 28 Şubat 2020 - 50.52 2 Mart 2020 - 48.40 9 Mart 2020 - 31.27
1 VARİL PETROL 1 KASA DOMATES Petrol ün varil fiyatıyla 1 kasa domatesin fiyatı eşitlendi. Rusya'da 1 kasa domates 30 dolar seviyesinde satılıyor. 1 varil 159.5 litre petrol alırken, fiyatı ise 31 dolar seviyesine düştü. 1 kasa domates ise 50 kilogram. DÜNYA BORSALARI ÇÖKTÜ
Coronavirüsün dünya ekonomisini resesyonun eşiğine getirmesinin etkisiyle sıkıntılı bir süreç yaşanan piyasalar, dün petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşün de eklenmesiyle adeta yerle bir oldu. Avrupa borsalarında kayıplar gün içerisinde yüzde 8'i aşarken, ABD'de yüzde 5'in üzerinde yaşanan düşüş sonrası vadeli işlemler kapatıldı. Dünya borsalarında 1 günlük kayıp 1 trilyon doların üzerine çıktı. İngiltere 'de endeks gün içerisinde yüzde 8'in, Almanya 'da yüzde 7'nin, Fransa ve İspanya 'da ise yüzde 6'nın üzerinde düştü. Coranvirüs'ten en fazla etkilenen ülke olan İtalya'da petrol şokunun da eklenmesiyle endeks yüzde 10 'un üzerinde geriledi. Petrol savaşını başlatan Rusya'da endeks yüzde 5 , Suudi Arabistan 'da ise yüzde 7 değer kaybetti. Rusya'da rubledeki düşüşü frenlemek için döviz alımları 30 gün boyunca durduruldu. Türkiye 'de ise BIST yüzde 5.5 oranında düştü.