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Rusya ve Suudi Arabistan arasındaki petrol gerilimiyle başlayan ve ardından yeni tip koronavirüs (Kovid-19) salgınıyla düşük seyreden petrol fiyatları, Akdeniz'e komşu ülkeler ile uluslararası aktörlerin Doğu Akdeniz 'de yürüttüğü petrol ve doğal gaz arama faaliyetlerini yeniden gözden geçirmesine neden oldu.
Konuya ilişkin değerlendirmelerde bulunan İzmir Ekonomi Üniversitesi Sürdürülebilir Enerji Ana Bilim Dalı Başkanı Prof. Dr. Mehmet Efe Biresselioğlu, Doğu Akdeniz'deki donanma ve enerji şirketleri ile arama gemilerinin çalışmalarını azalttığını söyledi.
Biresselioğlu, petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşün bölgedeki uluslararası aktörlerin "iştahını kaybetmesine" yol açtığını belirterek, "Bunların yanında, Türkiye 'nin bölgede artan varlığının ve uyguladığı aktif politikanın etkisini de belirtmemiz gerekir. Kovid-19 salgınının etkisi ile de içe dönük politikalar benimseyen devletler, şimdilik Doğu Akdeniz planlarına ara vermiş durumda diyebiliriz. Yine de koşullar değiştikçe bu durumun da değişim gösterme ihtimalinin yüksek olduğu söylenebilir." dedi.
"KANUNİ SALGIN SONRASINDA SONDAJ ÇALIŞMALARINA BAŞLAYABİLECEK" Biresselioğlu, Kovid-19 salgını öncesi pek çok uluslararası oyuncunun, Doğu Akdeniz ve Orta Doğu başta olmak üzere dünyada kilit rol oynayan bölgelerde dönüştürücü politikalar sürdürdüğünü dile getirerek, "Türkiye'nin de bu dönemde uyguladığı doğru politikalar ve ikili iş birlikleri ile Doğu Akdeniz bölgesinde önemli kazanımları oldu. Türkiye, mevcut göstergelerin ışığında olabildiğince düşük düzeyde olumsuz etki ile bu salgını atlatabilirse yeni yapılanmada ekonomik ve jeopolitik perspektifte daha avantajlı olacaktır. Ayrıca, diğer aktörlerin de bölgeye yönelik jeopolitik hedeflerinde büyük bir değişim olmamasına bağlı olarak Doğu Akdeniz'deki mücadelenin kaldığı yerden devam edeceğini öngörmek mümkün. Fakat bölgedeki aktörlerin bu hedefleri daha temkinli adımlarla gerçekleştirme çabası içine gireceğini de söyleyebiliriz." diye konuştu.
Türkiye 'nin bölgede askeri varlığını ve sondaj gemileriyle teknik gücünü artırmasının önemine işaret eden Biresselioğlu, şunları kaydetti:
"Özellikle Türkiye'nin Birleşmiş Milletler tarafından tanınan Libya Hükümeti ile bölgede kıta sahanlığı ve MEB sınırını belirlemek için imzaladığı mutabakat 'oyun değiştirici' olmuştur. Bu mutabakatın sonuçlarını artarak görmeye devam edeceğiz. Bu mutabakat bölgede kazan-kazan ilkesinin kabul edilmesi ve diplomatik çözüme ulaşılmasına katkı sunacaktır. Doğal kaynakların ilgili taraflar arasında adil dağılımı ve tüm tarafların egemenlik haklarını ayrım gözetmeksizin korumak olağanüstü bölgesel anlaşmazlıkların diplomatik çözümünü kolaylaştıracaktır. Üçüncü sondaj gemisi Kanuni ise Mart ayı ortasında Türkiye karasularına giriş yaptı. Kovid-19 salgınına ilişkin tedbir sürecine müteakiben geminin gerekli bakımları ve güncellemeleri yapılarak ultra derin deniz sondajlarına hazır hale getirilecek. Bu da demek oluyor ki Kanuni salgın sonrasında sondaj çalışmalarına başlayabilecek. Ülkemizin denizlerdeki sondaj faaliyetlerine önemli katkı gösterecektir."
"ŞİRKETLERİN FAALİYETLERİNİ TÜRKİYE İLE SÜRDÜRMELERİ MANTIKLI OLACAK" Türkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikaları Araştırma Merkezi (TESPAM) Başkanı Oğuzhan Akyener de salgın nedeniyle düşen petrol fiyatlarının, bu alanda arama-üretim ve servis hizmetleri veren bütün şirketleri ciddi anlamda etkilediğini söyledi.
Sektörde büyük bir kırılmanın yaşandığını ve bunun bir süre daha devam etmesinin beklendiğini ifade eden Akyener, şöyle konuştu:
"Gaz fiyatlarında her ne kadar petrol kadar sert düşüş yaşanmasa da yine de düştü. Gerçi Kovid-19 süreci öncesindeki gaz fiyatları da ilgili yabancı şirketlerin keşif iddia ettikleri sahaları geliştirerek, EastMed gibi ekonomik olarak mümkün olmayan bir projeyle taşımalarına imkan tanımamakta. Fakat şu an geldiğimiz noktada, Doğu Akdeniz 'de şirketlerin, yerine göre dolaylı siyasi kazanımlar vasıtasıyla ve para kazanma gayesiyle riske atılabilecek bütçesi kalmadı. Örneğin bölgedeki en aktif oyuncu ENI, son çeyrekte kar oranlarının yüzde 90'lar seviyesinde düştüğünü açıkladı."
Akyener, bölgedeki en güçlü ülke olan Türkiye için durumun farklı olduğuna işaret ederek, "Türkiye arama faaliyetlerini, kamusal finans desteğiyle kendi deniz alanlarında sürdürmeye devam etmekte. Doğu Akdeniz'deki ilgili alanlar, çalışmalarını ekonomik gerekçelerle donduran diğer şirketler için 'riskli dış alanlar' kapsamındayken, Türkiye için ise 'Mavi Vatan'dır. Bu sebeple psikolojik, ekonomik ve lojistik olarak Türkiye bu noktada bölgedeki en avantajlı ülke. İlgili şirketlerin ise bundan sonra faaliyetlerini Türkiye ile sürdürmeleri, kendileri için de mantıklı bir tercih olacak." değerlendirmesinde bulundu.
Doğu Akdeniz 'deki riskli arama veya ekonomik olmayan geliştirme projelerinin 1 yıldan 5 yıla kadar ertelenebileceğini dile getiren Akyener, sözlerini şöyle sürdürdü:
"Bu süreç sonunda, önümüzdeki 5 yıllık süre zarfında, artan talep ve düşen arz sebebiyle doğal gaz fiyatlarının artacağı, maliyetlerin yeni otomasyon teknolojileri ile düşeceği tahmin edilmekte. Ayrıca Lübnan 'da olası bir keşif bütün dengeleri değiştirecektir. Bütün bölge ülkelerinin gözü Lübnan'da devam eden ilk deniz sondajında. Bu sebeple ülke olarak sahip olduğumuz avantajlarımızın idrakiyle geleceği kurgulayarak, çok daha büyük atılımlar yapabilmemiz gerekiyor. Türkiye 'nin bu noktadaki kararlı duruşu, teknik, politik, hukuki ve askeri adımları bölgedeki tüm dengeleri ülkemiz lehine değiştirdi. Şu an İtalyanlar da Avrupa Birliği de bölgedeki diğer küresel oyuncular da Türkiye'nin razı olmadığı bir modelin hayata geçemeyeceğinden emin oldular. Türkiye birliğini, istikrarını ve kararlılığını sürdürdüğü sürece bölgedeki küresel oyuncular ve diğer ülkeler Türkiye ile iş birliği süreçlerine girmek durumunda kalacaklar. Türkiye'nin yeni yatırımlar ile teknik kapasitesini geliştirmesi ise bölgedeki büyük hidrokarbon şirketlerinin Türkiye ile daha yakın bir iş birliği sürecine girme beklentilerini perçinlemektedir."