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Dünya ekonomilerinin durduğu pandemide Türkiye daha iyi sınav verdi Dünyanın virüs salgınıyla durduğu ikinci çeyrekte, Türkiye ekonomisi daha iyi sınav verdi. Çift haneli daralma beklentilerine karşı küçülme 9.9 oldu. Mayıstan sonra başlayan toparlanmayla, 3. çeyrekte verilerin pozitife dönmesi bekleniyor. takvim.com.tr Giriş Tarihi : 01 Eylül 2020 , 07:17 Güncelleme Tarihi : 01 Eylül 2020 , 07:26
Kovid-19 nedeniyle dünya ekonomilerinde çift haneli daralmalara karşı Türkiye, Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı'nın koordinasyonunda alınan önlemlerle daha iyi bir sınav verdi. Ekonomistlerin çift haneli daralma beklentilerine karşı, Türkiye ekonominde ikinci çeyrekte küçülme oranı yüzde 9.9'da kaldı.
Ekonomilerin tamamen kapandığı nisan-mayıs-haziran aylarını kapsayan verilere göre, tarım, bilgi ve iletişim, finans ve sigorta dışında birçok sektör küçüldü. En yüksek daralma ise karantina kapsamındaki yasaklar nedeniyle hizmet sektöründe yaşandı. Türkiye'de büyümenin öncü göstergeleri ihracat, Reel Kesim Güven Endeksi, kapasite kullanım oranı ve Sanayi Üretim Endeksi verilerinin mayıs ayından itibaren yükseliş trendi içinde olduğu göz önüne alındığında ekonominin üçüncü çeyrekten itibaren 'V' tipi toparlanmayla hızla yükselişe geçeceği öngörülüyor.
SANAYİ YÜZDE 16.5 DARALDI Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu'nun (TÜİK) açıkladığı verilere göre, GSYH'yi oluşturan faaliyetlerin dağılımına bakıldığında; tarım yüzde 4.0, bilgi ve iletişim faaliyetleri yüzde 11.0, finans ve sigorta faaliyetleri yüzde 27.8, gayrimenkul faaliyetleri yüzde 1.7 arttı. Sanayi yüzde 16.5, inşaat sektörü yüzde 2.7, hizmetler yüzde 25.0, mesleki, idari ve destek hizmet faaliyetleri yüzde 16.5, kamu yönetimi, eğitim, insan sağlığı ve sosyal hizmet faaliyetleri yüzde 2.4 ve diğer hizmet faaliyetleri yüzde 18.0 azaldı. Mal ve hizmet ithalatı söz konusu dönemde yıllık bazda yüzde 6.3, ihracatı ise yüzde 35.3 azaldı.
Üretim yöntemine göre cari fiyatlarla GSYH tahmini, bu yılın ikinci 3 aylık döneminde geçen yılın aynı dönemine kıyasla yüzde 1.3 artarak 1 trilyon 41 milyar 643 milyon lira olarak gerçekleşti. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden arındırılmış GSYH bir önceki çeyreğe göre yüzde 11 azaldı. Takvim etkisinden arındırılmış GSYH, ikinci çeyrekte bir önceki yılın aynı çeyreğine göre yüzde 10 azaldı.
3. ÇEYREKTE TOPARLANIR Mayıs ayından itibaren pandemi krizinin etkilerini hafifletmek için uygulanan politikalarla ekonomide, olağanüstü dönemden çıkışla birlikte toparlanma başladı. Kapasite kullanım oranından güven endekslerine kadar birçok veride ekonominin üçüncü çeyrekten itibaren yeniden büyüme patikasına gireceği görülüyor. Ekonomistler de ekonominin üçüncü çeyrekten itibaren 'V' tipi toparlanmayla hızla yükselişe geçeceğini öngörüyor.
İŞ DÜNYASI NE DEDİ
ILIMLI AYRIŞTIK İTO Başkanı/ Şekib Avdagiç: 2020'nin ikinci çeyreği, tüm dünyada hayatın adeta durduğu 'Korona Çeyreği' oldu. Yüzde 9.9'luk bu daralma, normalleşmede V tipi dönüşün dip noktasını gösterdi. Avrupa ekonomilerine kıyasla daha ılımlı ayrıştığımızı görüyoruz.
3. ÇEYREKTE GERİ ALIRIZ ASO Başkanı/ Nurettin Özdebir: Üçüncü çeyrekte sanayi üretimi, PMI Endeksi ve İktisadi Yönelim Anketi, toparlanmanın hızlı bir şekilde gerçekleşeceğini ve üçüncü çeyrekle birlikte kaybın büyük bölümünün geri alınacağına işaret ediyor. İkinci çeyrek artık geride kaldı.
DAHA GAYRETLİ ÇALIŞACAĞIZ ATO Başkanı/ Gürsel Baran: Geçici olarak yaşanan küçülme moralimizi asla bozmayacak, aksine daha gayretli şekilde çalışıp, toparlanma ve ardından büyüme hamlesinde elimizden geleni yapacağız. Türkiye'nin sahip olduğu potansiyeli kullanarak süreçten en az hasarla çıkacağız.
KİMSE ENDİŞELENMESİN İSTİB Başkanı/ Ali Kopuz: Bu rakamı ilk çeyrek ile karşılaştırıp karamsar bir tablo çizmenin alemi yok. Neredeyse tüm dünyada ticaretin durduğu ikinci çeyrekte gerçekleşen yüzde 9.9 küçülme kimseyi endişeye sevk etmesin. 2020'yi birçok ülkeye göre daha iyi bir yerde kapatacağız. SABAH