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Yeni tip koronavirüs (Kovid-19) salgının etkilerini asgari düzeyde tutmak için alınan geçici tedbirler, normalleşme çerçevesinde kademeli olarak kaldırılırken, ekonomistler, kurumların aldığı kararların doğru ve yerinde olduğunu, Türk lirası varlıkları da pozitif etkileyebileceğini belirtti.
Ekonomik ve sosyal anlamda toplumları derinden etkileyen ve her anlamda yeni bir dönemin miladı olarak kabul edilen Kovid-19 ile mücadele tüm hızıyla sürerken, ülkeler salgın döneminine özgü tedbirleri kontrollü bir şekilde kaldırarak normalleşme yoluna gidiyor.
Hastalığın etkisini azaltmak için hükümetler, merkez banka ları ve regülatörlerce açıklanan eşi görülmemiş teşviklerde manevra alanı daralırken, küresel ekonomi ve finansal piyasaların bir müddet daha desteğe ihtiyaç duyduğu da aşikar.
Halen daha vaka sayılarının artmasına ve bazı ülkelerin kısıtlayıcı tedbirlere yeniden başvurmak zorunda kalmasına rağmen, Türkiye 'de ise yerinde ve zamanında atılan öngörülü adımlar ve sağlık sektörünün başarısı normalleşme için hazırlanan zemini güçlü kıldı.
Bu durum, küresel piyasalardaki belirsizlik ve risklerin arttığı hastalık döneminde alınan geçici tedbirlerde gevşemeye gidilmesinin önünü açtı.
SALGIN DÖNEMİNİN GEÇİCİ TEDBİRLERİ Salgın döneminde hükümetin açıkladığı destek paketlerinin büyüklüğü milli gelirin yüzde 10'una ulaştı.
Bu süreçte Banka cılık Düzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK ), Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB ) ve Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu (SPK), piyasaları ve reel sektörü canlı tutmak adına adımlar atarken, swap kanalı ve türev piyasalar üzerinden de istikrarı sağlayıcı yönde hamleler yaptı.
Merkez Banka sı, bankaların Türk lirası ve yabancı para likidite yönetiminde esneklik sağlanarak öngörülebilirliğin artırılmasına, reel sektöre kredi akışının kesintisiz devamını teminen bankalara hedefli ilave likidite imkanları tanınmasına ve reeskont kredi düzenlemeleriyle ihracatçı firmaların nakit akışının desteklenmesine yönelik tedbirler aldı. Yılın ilk 5 ayında politika faiz ini toplamda 375 baz puan düşürerek yüzde 12'den yüzde 8,25'e çeken Merkez Bankası, faiz indirimleri ve destekleyici politikalarla kredi artışlarına katkı verdi.
BDDK da salgın dönemine özgü olarak banka ların yurt dışı yerleşiklerle yapılan vadede TL alım ya da vadede TL satım yönündeki para swapı, forward, opsiyon ve diğer türev işlemlerine ilişkin limitleri düşürdü.
Özellikle salgından en fazla etkilenen turizm sektörünü desteklemek için kredi kartlarında taksitlendirme süreleri havayolları, seyahat acenteleri ve konaklama ile ilgili yurt içine ilişkin harcamalarda 12 aydan 18 aya çıkarıldı. Kredi kartlarında asgari ödeme tutarları düşürüldü, gecikme ve takibe düşme süreleri uzatıldı.
BDDK , salgının etkilediği bir diğer sektör olan konutta asgari peşinat oranını indirerek, kredi değer oranını yüzde 80'den yüzde 90'a yükseltti. Kurum ayrıca, bu dönemde Aktif Rasyosu (AR) hesaplanmasında da değişikliğe giderken, mevduat ve katılım banka ları için AR değerini yükseltti.
Salgın döneminde Borsa İstanbul AŞ pay piyasalarında açığa satış işlemlerinin yasaklanmasına karar veren SPK, fiyat marjlarını yüzde 20'den yüzde 10'a düşürdü ve devre kesici tetikleme oranını aşağı yönlü hareketlerde yüzde 5'e çekerek, sonrasında sürekli işleme verilen arayı da 15 dakikaya çıkardı.
ADIM ADIM NORMALLEŞME… Salgın hastalığı sınırlamaya yönelik tedbirlerin hafifletilmesi ve kademeli normalleşme adımlarının etkisiyle haziran ayıyla beraber küresel ekonomik aktivitede kısmi toparlanma sinyalleri gözlenirken, Türkiye 'de de normalleşme kapsamında geçici tedbirler teker teker kaldırılmaya başlandı.
Merkez Bankası, zorunlu karşılık oranları ve nema ödemelerini kredi büyümesi oranlarıyla ilişkilendiren zorunlu karşılık düzenlemesinde değişiklik yaptı.
TCMB , finansal istikrarın desteklenmesi amacıyla, yabancı para zorunlu karşılık oranları tüm banka lar için tüm yükümlülük türlerinde ve vade dilimlerinde 300 baz puan artırırken, akabinde reel kredi büyümesi koşullarını sağlayan bankaların yabancı para zorunlu karşılık oranları, tüm vade dilimlerinde geçerli olmak üzere, kıymetli maden depo hesapları için 700 baz puan, diğer tüm yabancı para yükümlülükleri için ise 200 baz puan yükseltti.
Banka, iktisadi faaliyetteki normalleşme süreciyle birlikte, hedefli ilave likidite imkanlarını kademeli olarak azalttı.
Merkez Bankası, son Para Politikası Kurulu (PPK) toplantısında da dezenflasyon sürecini yeniden tesis etmek ve fiyat istikrarını desteklemek amacıyla politika faiz i 200 baz puan yükseltti.
Bu süreçte BDDK ise normalleşme çerçevesinde banka ların yurt dışı yerleşiklerle yapılan vadede TL alım ya da vadede TL satım yönündeki para swapı, forward, opsiyon ve diğer türev işlemlerine ilişkin limitleri artırdı.
AR hesaplamasında da değişiklik yapan BDDK, rasyonun değerini 1 Ekim'den itibaren mevduat bankaları için yüzde 95'ten yüzde 90'a, katılım bankaları için yüzde 75'ten yüzde 70'e düşürdü.
SPK da Borsa İstanbul "BIST 30 Endeksi"nde yer alan pay piyasalarında açığa satış yasağını kaldırdı.
Son olarak da kambiyo işlemlerinde uygulanan Banka Sigorta ve Muameleleri Vergisi (BSMV) oranı yüzde 1'den binde 2'ye düşürüldü. Türk lirası mevduatlarının faiz getirisinden yapılan vergi kesintisi düşürüldü, 1 yıldan uzun vadeli mevduat hesaplarında oran sıfırlandı.
Hazine ve Maliye Bakanı Berat Albayrak , "Yeni Dengelenme", "Yeni Normal", "Yeni Ekonomi" ana temasıyla detaylarını açıkladığı Yeni Ekonomi Programı (YEP) toplantısında, dengelenme döneminde, salgın sürecine özgün olarak devreye alınan finansal tedbirlerin kademeli olarak kaldırılacağını vurguladı.
Ağustos başından bu yana ilgili kurumların gerek faiz ve likidite adımlarıyla gerekse de swap ve AR düzenlemeleriyle bu yönde adımlar atmaya başladığını belirten Albayrak, "Normalleşme adımları önümüzdeki günlerde de haftalarda da devam edecek, hem finansal istikrarımıza hem de makroekonomik hedeflerimize katkı sağlayacaktır." ifadelerini kullandı.
"BİREYSEL DÖVİZ HESAPLARININ, FAİZ ARTIŞI VE STOPAJ AVANTAJI SONRASINDA KISMEN DE OLSA TL'YE DÖNDÜĞÜNÜ GÖREBİLİRİZ" Garanti BBVA Yatırım Araştırma ve Yatırım Danışmanlığı Koordinatörü Tufan Cömert , AA muhabirine konuya ilişkin yaptığı değerlendirmede, son hafta içinde alınan kararların genel olarak olumlu olduğunu söyledi.
Bunu bir kaç açıdan ele almak gerektiğini belirten Cömert, öncelikle uzunca bir süredir Türk mali piyasalarından çıkan yabancı yatırımcıların, faiz artışı ve swap kısıtlamasına getirilen esneklik sonrasında, halen dünyada süren getiri arayışı çerçevesinde ilk aşamada TL faizlerinden yararlanmak istemelerinin mümkün olduğunu ifade etti.
Cömert, burada çok ciddi bir portföy girişi beklememek gerektiğini ancak en azından bundan sonraki süreçte, dünyada riskten kaçınma eğiliminin çok güçlendiği dönemler haricinde, ciddi çıkışlar da görmeyeceklerini dile getirdi.
Fakat bundan da önemli olanın, swap düzenlemesi sonrasında piyasalarda eksik kalan "hedge" mekanizmasının yeniden çalışmasıyla birlikte, yabancı yatırımcı kaynaklı döviz talebinin de azalmasının mümkün olabileceğine dikkati çeken Cömert, bunun da yine TL açısından olumlu olacağını vurguladı.
Cömert, şunları kaydetti: "TL mevduatlardaki stopaj düzenlemesini ise yerli yatırımcılar açısından değerlendirmek gerekir. Halen bankacılık sisteminde bulunan 135 milyar dolar seviyesindeki bireysel döviz hesaplarının, faiz artışı ve stopaj avantajı sonrasında kısmen de olsa TL'ye döndüğünü görebiliriz. Eğer önümüzdeki dönemde TCMB tekrar faiz artışına gider ya da likidite imkanlarını kullanarak sıkılaştırmaya devam ederse, mevduat faizlerinin de buna göre artması yatırımcılara cazip reel faiz imkanı sunacağından, bahsettiğimiz çözülme daha belirgin olabilir. Buna ek olarak döviz alım işlemlerindeki verginin düşürülmesi de yurt içi döviz piyasasında bir süredir zayıf giden bireysel döviz satışlarının yeniden artmasına ve geçmiş yıllarda gördüğümüz üzere kurda otomatik dengeleyici mekanizmasının geri gelmesine yol açabilir."
Tufan Cömert , bundan sonraki süreçte ana senaryolarının, dünyada şartlar önemli ölçüde kötüleşmedikçe, TL'de görece istikrarlı bir seyir izleneceği, enflasyon beklentilerinin bu çerçevede kontrollü seyredeceği, aktif rasyosunda yapılan düzenleme sonrasında da banka ların mevduat oranlarında TCMB yönlendirmesinden çok farklı bir seviye oluşmayacağı yönünde olduğunu sözlerine ekledi.
"2021 TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN ILIMLI BİR TOPARLANMA DÖNEMİ OLABİLİR" Virtus Glocal Yönetici Ortağı İnanç Sözer de TL cinsi varlıkların aşırı değersiz hale gelmesi ve dolar/TL'nin 7,86'yı görmesinden sonra atılan rasyonel adımlar ve kararlı bir şekilde ihtiyaç duyulan stratejik adımların atılacağına dair vaatler içeren Yeni Ekonomik Program sonrası, TL'deki değer kaybının durduğunu söyledi.
Yakın dönemdeki olumlu adımlar dikkate alınınca, akut haline gelen diğer önlemlerin de kısa vadede atılacağına dair beklentilerin artmasının yurt içi piyasaları olumluya çevirdiğini vurgulayan Sözer, "Türkiye uzun vadeli yatırımcılar için çok ciddi fırsatlar sunsa da, kısa dönemde hem yurt içi hem yurt dışı yatırımcıların algısını iyileştirecek acil önlemler paketine ihtiyacımız var. Nitekim YEP'te de bu ihtiyacın farkedildiği görülüyor. Rasyonel, piyasa dostu adımların atılması halinde 2021, Türkiye ekonomisi için endişe edilenin aksine ılımlı bir toparlanma dönemi olabilir." diye konuştu.