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Merkez Bankası faizi sabit tuttu! Uzman isimler kararı A Para'da yorumladı Merkez Bankası piyasalar tarafından günlerdir beklenen faiz kararını açıkladı. Para Politikası Kurulu toplantısı sonrası yapılan açıklamada “politika faizi”nin 10.25’te sabit tutulduğu açıklandı. Peki bu karar ne anlama geliyor? Bu karar sonrası piyasaların tepkisi ne oldu? Gelişmeleri A Para canlı yayınına katılan Medipol Üniversitesi Öğretim Üyesi Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin, Şekerbank Başekonomisti Dr. Gülay Elif Yıldırım ve Stratejist Cüneyt Paksoy yorumladı. takvim.com.tr Giriş Tarihi : 22 Ekim 2020 , 15:31 Güncelleme Tarihi : 22 Ekim 2020 , 15:38
Merkez Bankası PPK toplantısı sonrası yaptığı açıklamada "Politika faizi olan bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oranı yüze 10,25 düzeyinde sabit tutuldu" dedi. Yapılan bu açıklama sonrası faiz kararı da belli olmuş oldu. Peki bu karar piyasalar için ne anlama geliyor? Gelişmeleri A Para canlı yayınına katılan Medipol Üniversitesi Öğretim Üyesi Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin, Şekerbank Başekonomisti Dr. Gülay Elif Yıldırım ve Stratejist Cüneyt Paksoy değerlendirdi.
Medipol Üniversitesi Öğretim Üyesi Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin: Genel manada son 2 aydır Türkiye'de Neoliberal-Ortodoks görüşleri savunan ekonomistlerle, bizim gibi daha dar kadro Keynesyen-heteredoks politikaları savunan ekonomistler arasında önemli bir görüş tartışması vardı. Neoliberal Ortodoks ekip ağırlıklı olarak Türkiye'nin fiyat istikrarı, finansal istikrar, virüs salgınının etkilerinin Türkiye ekonomisinde ortadan kaldırılmaya yönelik politika setinde izlenen yaklaşımları bir ölçüde eleştiriyor ve doğru bulmuyorlardı. Biz ise bir Keynesyenci olarak şuanda Türkiye ve dünya ekonomisi olağanüstü bir süreçten geçtiğinden dolayı para ve maliye politikasının ağırlıklı olarak reel sektörü, üretimi, büyümeyi, istihdamı ve ihracatı destekleyici şekilde şekillendirilmesi gerektiğini savunuyorduk. Genel duruşumuz buydu.
Bu yönde bakıldığı zaman Merkez Bankası'nın ekonomideki toparlanmayı desteklemek amacıyla enflasyon bir miktar rahatsız olsa da faiz artırımı konusunda aceleci olmaması gerektiğini savunuyorduk. Diğer grup ise "Hayır yanlış söylüyorsunuz. Tedbirler derhal devreye girmeli. Merkez Bankası'nın farklı araçlara yönelmesine gerek yok. Faiz oranını yükseltmek suretiyle piyasaya mesaj vermelidir" diyordu ve bunu savunuyordu.
Anladığım kadarıyla Merkez Bankası geçtiğimiz ayki adımdan sonra kredi piyasasındaki ve hacmindeki yavaşlamayı, hem de aynı zamanda ekonomideki ikinci dalgadan kaynaklanabilecek riskleri dikkate alarak bu ayı pas geçmeyi tercih etti. Bana kalırsa kasım ayını da pas geçmesini tercih ederim ama tabi bu bana kalmış bir şey değil. Neticede Merkez Bankası elindeki olağanüstü geniş veri setiyle bu kararları alıyor.
Şekerbank Başekonomisti Dr. Gülay Elif Yıldırım: Çok değişik beklentiler vardı genel itibarıyla. 150-200 baz puan arasında bir beklenti vardı ama Merkez Bankası hibrit bir yaklaşımda bulundu. Politika faizi bir süredir kullanılmıyor. Genelde Merkez Bankası piyasaya borç verme faizi üzerinden hatta 3 gündür Geç Likitide Penceresine yönlendiriyor. Ve gecelik borçlanmaya yönlendiriyor. Yani 10,25 günün sonunda çok hesaplama tablosuna giren bir onay değildi. Bunun önümüzdeki dönemde de devam edeceğini düşünüyorum. En son noktada Merkez Bankası'nın zaten o noktaya gideceğini ve tüm fonlamanın GLP üzerinden geçeceğini inandığımı ifade etmişti. Merkez Bankası da bu tarafa minik minik adımlarla gidiyor. Ama son noktada fonlamanın yarısını 11,25'ten yarısını 14,25'ten verse bile basit bir ortalama ile 12,72'nin üzerinde bir maliyet göreceğiz diye düşünüyorum.