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Yeni tip koronavirüs (Covid-19) salgınının başta Avrupa olmak üzere bazı bölgelerde yeniden hızlanması, küresel ekonomiyi de olumsuz etkiliyor. Salgının kontrol edilemez boyuta ulaşması, aşı ve tedavide hedeflenen ilerlemenin sağlanamaması durumunda, uluslararası kuruluşların gelecek yıl için yüzde 4-5 civarında beklediği küresel büyümenin de gerçekleşmeyebileceği belirtiliyor.
AA muhabirinin, 2021 Yılı Cumhurbaşkanlığı Yıllık Programı'ndan derlediği bilgiye göre, dünya ekonomisinin bu yılı yüzde 4,4, Avro Bölgesi'nin yüzde 8,3, ABD 'nin yüzde 4,3 küçülmeyle ve Çin 'in yüzde 1,9 büyümeyle kapatması bekleniyor. Gelecek yıl ise dünya ve Avro Bölgesi ekonomisinin yüzde 5,2, ABD'nin yüzde 3,1, Çin'in de yüzde 8,2 büyüyeceği tahmin ediliyor.
Analistler, Covid-19 salgınının dünya genelinde ilkinden daha sert olması halinde, özellikle reel sektör ün ciddi şekilde etkilenebileceğini, bu durumun şirketlerin iflaslarını tetikleyebileceğini ve finansal piyasalara negatif yansıyabileceğini öngörüyor. Bu gelişmelerin özellikle tedarik zinciri ve ticaret yoluyla tüm ülkelere olumsuz yansıması ihtimali üzerinde duruluyor.
Finansal piyasaların küresel gelişmelere aşırı duyarlılığı ve bunun küresel sermaye akımları üzerindeki etkileri, diğer temel risk faktörlerinin yanı sıra salgın şokunun sürekliliğine, alınan tedbirlerin ölçüsü ve etkinliğine bağlı olarak potansiyel arzda ortaya çıkacak kayıplara ilişkin belirsizlikler de bulunuyor.
MADALYONUN İKİ YÜZÜ
Büyümenin öngörülenden kötü gerçekleşme riski de dile getiriliyor. Başta Avrupa olmak üzere bazı bölgelerde hızlanan Covid-19 salgını tekrar güçlenip kontrol edilemez hale gelirse, aşı ve tedavi yöntemlerindeki ilerleme beklenenden daha yavaş olursa veya ülkelerin tedaviye erişiminde eş zamanlı bir süreç yaşanmazsa ekonomik aktivitede canlanmanın beklenenin altında kalıp, ülkeler arasındaki büyüme performansında farklılaşmayı artırabileceği belirtiliyor. Bu durumda, uluslararası kurumların 2021 yılı için yüzde 4-5 civarında beklediği küresel büyümenin gerçekleşmeyebileceği ifade ediliyor.
Durgunluğun şiddetinin artması ve bazı ülkelerde acil önlemlerin geri alınması ihtimalinin iflasları artırabileceği gibi, istihdam ve gelir kayıplarına da yol açabileceği öngörülüyor. Finansal piyasaların bozulmasının ise kırılgan ekonomilere sermaye akımlarında ani duruşlara neden olabileceği tahmin ediliyor.
Buna karşın, aşı veya etkin tedavi sürecindeki gelişmelerin virüsün yayılma hızını azaltarak ekonomik aktivitenin salgın öncesi düzeyine tahmin edilenden önce dönmesini sağlama ihtimali de risk azaltıcı faktör olarak değerlendiriliyor. Genişlemeci mali tedbirlerin 2021 yılına uzatılması da büyümeyi mevcut tahminlerin üzerine taşıyabilecek bir unsur olarak görülüyor.
KADEMELİ İYİLEŞME BEKLENTİSİ
İş Yatırım Uluslararası Piyasalar Direktörü Şant Manukyan , AA muhabirine, Covid-19 salgını sürecinde dünyada kamu garanti ve destekleri sayesinde ertelenen iflasların gelişmelere göre yeniden dalgaya dönüşebileceğini söyledi.
Bunun bankacılık sistemini zor durumuna düşüreceğini ifade eden Manukyan, "Ondan sonra da bütün piyasalar ve ekonomiler üzerinde baskı olacaktır. Covid-19 kaynaklı olarak yeniden ekonomilerin kapanması gibi bir risk görmüyorum ama bu sürecin uzaması neticesinde şirketlerin artık ayakta durma gücünün azalması ve iflasların hızlanmasıyla finansal sistem ve reel ekonomi derken global bir krize doğru tekrar gitme riski söz konusu olabilir." dedi.
Covid-19 aşısına ilişkin gelişmelere değinen Manukyan, "hastalığın bulaşma hızı, aşının ne kadar etkin olacağı ve nüfusun kaçta kaçına yapılacağı" hususlarının önem taşıdığını bildirdi.
Manukyan, aşı bulunsa dahi finansal ve reel sektör ün tepkisinin farklı olacağına işaret ederek, hava yolları, restoran ve ofis yöneten şirketlerin yukarı yönlü çok hızlı tepki verebileceğini dile getirdi.
Reel sektör açısından ise insanların hemen aşı olup, yurt dışına çıkmaya başlamasını beklemediğini vurgulayan Manukyan, şöyle konuştu:
"Aşı gelse bile kademeli bir açılma göreceğimizi düşünüyorum. 2021 yılında Ocak 2020'ye dönme ihtimali olduğunu ben düşünmüyorum ancak ABD tarafından tartışılan 1,8 trilyon dolarlık teşvik paketi ve Çin tarafından açıklanacak büyüme rakamları dünyada toparlanmayı biraz hızlandırabilir."
"AŞININ BULUNMASI OLUMSUZ ETKİLERİN BÜYÜK KISMINI ORTADAN KALDIRIR"
Spinn Danışmanlık Kurucu Ortağı Özlem Derici ise uzmanların, aşının yıl başından önce bulunup üretimine geçilmesi ihtimalini gerçekçi bulmadığını ifade etti.
Derici, devletlerin ilk dalgada uyguladığı kadar sert önlemler almamasının, bu dönemde salgının daha da hızlı yayılmasına neden olabileceğine dikkati çekti.
Böylesi bir senaryo oluşursa Türkiye'de büyüme, enflasyon , kur, faiz , bütçe açığı ve cari açık rakamlarının beklenenden daha kötü gelme ihtimalinin ortaya çıkacağını belirten Derici, şunları kaydetti:
"Yeni Ekonomi Programı'nda, GSYH büyümesi bu yıl yüzde 0,3, gelecek yıl ise yüzde 5,8 öngörülmüş. Enflasyonun gelecek yıl yüzde 8'e gerilemesi, cari açığın GSYH'ye oranla yüzde 1,9, bütçe açığının yüzde 4,3 olması bekleniyor ancak yaşadığımız türbülansın beklenenden daha yüksek kur ve faiz seviyesiyle sonuçlanmasını ve şirket finansallarını negatif etkileyen bu durumun büyümeden çalmasını bekliyoruz. Dolayısıyla büyümenin yüzde 3,5, kur geçişkenliği nedeniyle enflasyonun çift haneli, bütçe açığı ve cari açığın da öngörülenden yüksek olma olasılığının arttığını düşünüyoruz. Aşının bulunması ise bu etkilerin büyük bir kısmını ortadan kaldıracaktır."