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2021 yılına girmemize sayılı günler kala ekonomideki gelişmeler ve beklentiler de merak konusu oluyor. Ülkemizde de popüler bir yatırım aracı olan altının düşüp d��şmeyeceğine ilişkin beklentiler ve değerlendirmeler yakından takip ediliyor. ABD merkezli yatırım bankası Goldman Sachs yeni yılda altın fiyatları na ilişkin tahminler yayınladı. 2021 altın tahmin ine göre altın fiyatlarının önümüzdeki birkaç ayda belirli bir bant içinde dalgalı olarak seyredeceğine yer verildi.
2021 ALTIN FİYATLARI NASIL OLACAK?
Dev bankaya göre Reflasyon hikayesi 2021 yılında altın fiyatını önemli ölçüde destekleyecek. Bu çerçevede bankanın öngördüğü fiyat seviyesi 3, 6 ve 12 aylık dönemlerde 2.300 dolar.
Önümüzdeki bir kaç ay için altın fiyatında dalgalanma bekleyen Goldman Sachs 2021 yılındaki reflasyon hikayesinin kısa vadeli reel faizleri düşüreceğini ancak uzun vadelilerin düşmekte zorlansa bile altın için destekleyici olacağını vurguluyor.
Altın için bir riskten korunma vurgusu yapan Goldman'a göre değerli metalin kısa vadeli reel faizlere karşı daha hassas olmasını bekliyor.
Raporda bir diğer vurgu yapılan nokta ise gelişen piyasalardaki tüketici talebinde görülen iyileşme. Bankaya göre bu trend önümüzdeki dönemde de devam edecek.
ABD merkezli yatırım bankası Goldman Sachs, altın fiyatının gelecek birkaç ay yatay seyrin ardından ons altında dolarda gerilemeye karşı hedge alımları ile yükselişin süreceğini öngördü.
Değerlendirmede, "2021 yılında para arzında artış hikayesi yakın vadeli faiz oranlarını, her ne kadar uzun vadelilerde daha fazla düşüşte zorlanma olsa da, daha aşağı çekerek altın için destekleyici olur" ifadeleri kullanıldı. Altının yakın vadeli faizlere karşı daha hassas hareket ettiği vurgulandı.
Buna ek olarak büyük gelişen piyasalarda tüketici talebinin arttığı işaretleri bulunduğunun altını çizen kuruluş, bu trendin gelecek yıl da devam edeceğini öngördü. 12 aylık altın hedefinin 2300 dolar olarak sürdüğünü belirtti.
ABD VE AVRUPA İÇİN EKONOMİK TAHMİNLER
Kuruluş tarafından cumartesi günü açıklanan raporda, ABD ve Avrupa ekonomileri için beklentiler, artan Covid19 vakaları nedeniyle aşağı çekildi.
Goldman Sachs Baş Ekonomisti Jan Hatzius öncülüğündeki ekonomistler tarafından hazırlanan raporda, "Atlantik'in her iki tarafında da Covid19 vakaları keskin şekilde artış gösteriyor. Bu durum yakın vadede büyük ülkelerin ekonomilerine yansıyacaktır. Yakın vadede riskler aşağı yönlü" denildi.
Raporda, ABD'nin yeni seçilen Başkanı Biden'ın muhtemelen 1 trilyon dolar civarında bir teşvik paketi için Cumhuriyetçi Parti ile anlaşacağı, rakamın Demokratlar'ın hakim olacağı bir Kongre görülseydi bunun iki katı olacağı değerlendirildi.
Goldman, ABD ekonomisi için gelecek yıl ilk çeyrek büyüme beklentisini %7'den %3,5'e çekti. Avrupa için 4. çeyrek tahmini ise %9,1 büyümeden %8,7 daralmaya revize edildi. ABD ekonomisi için 2020 GSYH tahmini -%3,5, 2021 GSYH tahmini %5,3, 2022 tahmini de %3,8 açıklandı. Euro Bölgesi için 2020 tahmini -%7,2, 2021 tahmini %5,3, 2022 tahmini de %4,3 açıklandı.
Yatırım kuruluşu 2021 yılında küresel ekonomi için ise %6,0 büyüme tahmin etti. Genel beklenti büyümenin %5,2 civarında olacağı yönünde bulunuyor. 2020 tahmini ise %4,0 daralma öngörüyor.
ALTINDAKİ GERİ ÇEKİLME KALICI MI?
Altında yaşanan sert düşüşlerle ilgili konuşan Samsun Kuyumcular Odası Başkanı Salih Özman, "Altındaki geri çekilmenin çok geçici olduğuna inanıyorum. Bir müddet sonra yine fiyatlar toparlanacaktır" dedi.
1960 dolar seviyelerini gören ons fiyatı ve dolar kurundaki yükselişin etkisiyle 540 lirayı gören altın yaşanan gelişmelerle yönünü aşağı çevirdi. Samsun Kuyumcular Odası Başkanı Salih Özman sert düşüşler sonrası 465 liradan devam eden altının piyasaya etkisini değerlendirdi.
Altındaki alım satım hareketlerinin kuyumculara olumlu yansıdığını ancak önemli bir gelir sağlamadığını kaydeden Salih Özman, "Piyasada hareket olduğu zaman bizde de hareket oluyor. Yani hem düşüşte hem yükselişte vatandaşlar kendi pozisyonlarını koruyabilmek için ya az zarar etmek ya daha çok kar etmek için mağazalarımızı ziyaret ediyor. Ama önemli olan tabii ki bizde kalıcı alışverişler yapmak. Sezon itibariyle işlerimiz son derece durgun ama bizim için önemli olan kalıcı yatırımcı ya da tüketim maksadıyla altın alınması. Biz de kış sezonuna girdik malumunuz önce okul masrafları başladı. Şimdi yakacak masrafları derken kış sezonunda vatandaşlarımızın da harcamaları arttığı için çok öyle altının yüzüne bakan olmuyor işin doğrusunu söylemek gerekirse. Yani tüketim için kimse altın almıyor. Gram atın ve bozdurmalarda bizim cirolarımızı yükseltse bile işin doğrusu kayda değer bir gelir, kar bırakmıyor. Çünkü bunları herkes yatırım için alıyor zarar etmeyeceği ürünler diye satılıyor dolayısıyla bu hareketlerin bizim kuyumculuk sektörüne çok bir faydası yok" dedi.