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Yabancı ekonomistler, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB ) Başkanı Naci Ağbal 'ın bugünkü "2021 Yılında Para ve Kur Politikası " toplantısında, "2021'de sıkı para politikası ve enflasyon la mücadeleye vurgu yapmasının" yatırımcıların Türk lirası (TL) varlıklara güveninin artmasını sağlayacağını belirtti.
Naci Ağbal, çevrim içi toplantıda, fiyat istikrarının ekonomik istikrarın ön koşulu olduğunu vurgulayarak, "Fiyat istikrarını sağlamak, hepimizin amacı olmalıdır. TCMB olarak, enflasyonu düşürmekte kararlıyız. Hedeflerimize ulaşmak için şartların gerekli kılması halinde politika duruşumuzu daha da sıkılaştıracağız" ifadelerini kullandı. Yabancı ekonomistler, Ağbal'ın Ortodoks politikalara işaret eden bir dil kullanarak "piyasa dostu" olarak değerlendirilebilecek mesajlar verdiğini ifade etti.
Bugün yayımlanan TCMB 'nin 2021 yılına ilişkin Para ve Kur Politikası Raporu'nda da enflasyon a ilişkin yukarı yönlü risklerin, gelecek yıl para politikasının sıkı ve kararlı bir duruş sergilemesini zorunlu kıldığı belirtilerek, dalgalı döviz kuru rejiminin devam edeceği, kurların serbest piyasa koşullarında arz ve talep dengesine göre oluşacağı aktarıldı.
Bluebay Varlık Yönetimi Gelişen Piyasalar Kıdemli Stratejisti Timothy Ash, TCMB Başkanı Ağbal'ın mesajları ve rapora ilişkin değerlendirmesinde, Ağbal'ın Merkez Bankası nın duruşuna ilişkin uygun bir sunum yaptığını belirterek, "Ağbal ve TCMB, gerçekten teşvik edici mesajlar verdi." ifadesini kullandı.
Ash, "Bu sabah Ağbal'dan oldukça şahin mesajlar geldi ve piyasa bunu çok seviyor. Dolar/TL, 7,80'in altını gördü. Ağbal, 2021'de para politikasının sıkı tutulacağını ve döviz rezervlerinin kademeli olarak güçlendireceğini söylüyor. Mesajlar Ortodoks." ifadelerini kullandı.
"TOPLANTI, ÇEŞİTLİ NEDENLERLE MEMNUNİYETLE KARŞILANMALI" İspanyol BBVA'nın başekonomisti Alvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca da TCMB 'nin bugünkü toplantısının çeşitli nedenlerle memnuniyetle karşılanması gerektiğini aktararak, "Birincisi, TCMB, yeni Başkan göreve geldikten sonra antienflasyon ist açıklamaları devam ettirdi. İkincisi, piyasalara rehberlik etmek için çok faydalı olacak iletişim politikasını açıkça geliştiriyor. Banka'nın kullandığı dil daha doğrudandı ve bazı zor olanlar da dahil olmak üzere tüm sorular ele alındı." değerlendirmesinde bulundu.
Abarca, sıkı para politikası duruşunun sürdürüleceği ve enflasyon tahmini hedefine sadık kalınacağının ortaya konulduğunu belirterek, "Bankanın temel para politikası aracı bir hafta vadeli repo olacak. Geç Likidite Penceresi (GLP) sadece geçici likidite gerilimleri için kullanılacak, para politikası aracı olarak kullanılmayacak. Bu, öngörülebilirlik açısından piyasaya yardımcı olacak." ifadelerini kullandı.
TCMB 'nin, döviz rezervlerini kademeli olarak güçlendirmeyi ve bunun uzun dönemli sorun olduğunu kabul ettiğini aktaran Abarca, Türk hükümetinin de enflasyon la mücadele ve Türk varlıklarının çekiciliğini artıracak politikalarla dolarizasyonun azaltılmasına odaklandığını vurguladı.
TCMB iletişiminin ve şeffaflığının artırılacağına işaret eden Abarca, bunun; piyasa beklentilerini yönetmek, hedeflerdeki geçici sapmaları veya beklenmedik şoklar nedeniyle para politikasındaki değişiklikleri açıklamak için çok önemli olduğunu kaydetti.
Abarca, "Özetle, TCMB'nin açıklamaları önemli ölçüde gelişti ve hem ekonomistler hem de gazeteciler değişimi sosyal medyada kabul ettiler. Ancak bu, TCMB'nin artık işini yapmaya odaklanması gereken uzun vadeli bir strateji. Bu, bir azim ve gerçekleştirme meselesidir. Bir nevi sadece yap politikası... TCMB, bunu yapmada ısrar ederse çok yakında sonuçlar gelmeye başlayacaktır." ifadelerini kullandı.
"PİYASALARI CESARETLENDİRİYOR" Societe Generale Gelişmekte Olan Piyasalar Strateji Direktörü Phoenix Kalen ise Merkez Bankası Başkanı Ağbal'dan "gerekirse para politikasını daha da sıkılaştırma, Banka'nın enflasyon hedefine ulaşma hedefini sürdürme, basitleştirilmiş para politikası çerçevesini koruma, döviz kuruna müdahaleleri azaltma ve takas olanaklarının kullanımına" ilişkin son derece sağduyulu yorumlar duymanın piyasaları cesaretlendirdiğini belirtti.
Ağbal'ın değerlendirmelerinin, Türk makamlarının "Ortodoks politikaya doğru stratejik dönüşte kararlı olduklarına" dair görüşleriyle tutarlı olduğunu aktaran Kalen, "Perakende ve yabancı yatırımcı güvenini artırmaya yönelik çabaların ülkede dolarizasyon eğilimini kademeli olarak tersine çevirmede başarılı olacağına inandığımız için dolar/TL ve avro/TL'de kısa pozisyon alıyoruz." ifadesini kullandı.
Rabobank Gelişen Piyasalar Kıdemli Kur Stratejisti Piotr Matys, enflasyon un; geçen beklenenden çok daha hızlı şekilde arttığını, TL'deki ani değer kaybının olumsuz etkisi azalıncaya kadar da yüksek kalacağını belirterek, "Reel faiz oranları görece düşük. Türk lirası da yükseliş ivmesini kaybetti. TCMB Başkanı Ağbal'ın son şahin sözlerinden önce bile, 24 Aralık'taki faiz artırımı için geçerli bir durum ortaya çıkabilir." dedi.