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Emtia piyasasında işlem gören 18 ürünün fiyat hareketlerinden derlenen bilgilere göre, 2020'de 16 ürün yatırımcısına kazandırırken, 2'si kaybettirdi.
Yeni tip koronavirüs (Kovid-19) salgınına ilişkin olumlu hab erler, ülke ekonomilerinin normale dönme hamlelerine başlaması, emtia fiyatlarının üretim maliyetlerine yaklaşması nedeniyle tepki alımlarındaki artış, emtia para birimlerinin dolar karşısında değer kazanması ve üretim tahminlerindeki düşüş beklentisi, 2020'de emtia fiyatlarını olumlu etkiledi.
Joe Biden 'ın AB D başkanlık seçimini kazanmasının emtia piyasası için genel olarak pozitif bir beklenti oluşturması, ABD Temsilciler Meclisi 'nin ekonomik destek paketindeki nakit para yardımını onaylaması, AB liderlerinin kurtarma programı ve bütçe konusunda anlaşması, AB ve Birleşik Krallık arasında imzalanan ticaret anlaşması da emtia fiyatlarını olumlu etkileyen faktörler arasında yer aldı.
Geçen yıl emtia piyasasında yatırımcısına en fazla kazandıran yüzde 47,8 ile gümüş oldu. Gümüşü, yüzde 37,2 ile soya fasulyesi, yüzde 26,4 ile paladyum , yüzde 26,1 ile bakır izledi.
2020'de altın yüzde 25,2, mısır yüzde 24,8, çinko yüzde 19,7, nikel yüzde 19,3, doğal gaz yüzde 15,4, buğday yüzde 14,6, şeker yüzde 13,9, pamuk yüzde 12,9, platin yüzde 11,5, alüminyum yüzde 11,1, kurşun yüzde 2,8 ve kakao yüzde 2,5 değer kazandı.
Geçen yıl Brent petrol yüzde 22,8 ve kahve de yüzde 1,1 değer kaybetti.
GÜMÜŞ, 2020'DE "GÜVENLİ LİMAN" OLARAK GÖRÜLDÜ Analistler, 2020 yılında gümüşün "güvenli liman" olarak görülmesi ve arzında gözlemlenen problemlerin gümüş fiyatlarını destekleyen en önemli etkenler olduğunu belirterek, AB D başkanlık seçimini kazanan Joe Biden 'ın "yenilenebilir enerji" vurgusunun gümüş fiyatlarına pozitif yansıdığını söyledi.
Gümüşün güneş panelleri üretiminde kullanıldığını aktaran analistler, daha fazla güneş paneli talebinin daha fazla gümüş talebini de beraberinde getirebileceğini, bunun da gümüş fiyatlarını yukarı çekeceğini kaydetti.
Analistler, Çin kaynaklı görülen alımlar ve Güney Amerika 'daki kuraklık nedeniyle üretimde beklenen düşüşlerin yıl genelinde soya fasulyesi fiyatlarını yukarı yönlü etkilediğini ifade ederek, olumlu piyasa koşullarıyla birlikte yenilenebilir enerji konusunda bakıra olan talebin artacağı yönünde beklentiler oluştuğunu anlattı.
ALTIN, 2020'DE 10 YILDAKİ EN YÜKSEK KAZANCINI ELDE ETTİ Kovid-19 nedeniyle "güvenli liman" varlıklardan altına olan talep geçen yıl kayda değer şekilde arttı. Altın, 2020'de 10 yıldaki en yüksek kazancını elde etti.
Kovid-19 karşısında dünyanın önde gelen merkez bankalarının attığı genişlemeci adımlar ve salgında ikinci dalga endişeleri ile altının onsu, geçen yıl yükselişini sürdürürken, salgının olası ekonomik ve sosyal etkileri, AB D ve Çin arasındaki gerginlik, ABD iş gücü piyasasının sıkıntılı durumu da altının ons fiyatını destekleyen unsurlar oldu.
Küresel mısır üretim tahminlerinin düşmesi ve Çin kaynaklı alımlar mısır fiyatlarında yükselişe neden olurken, analistler, mısır, soya fasulyesi, pamuk, buğday gibi tarım emtialarında yukarı yönlü trend oluşacağına dair beklentilerin meydana geldiğini söyledi.
Analistler, Brezilya'da kahve ihracatının düşüş gösterdiğine yönelik verilerin fiyatlarda değer kaybına neden olduğunu, ülkede Kovid-19 endişeleri nedeniyle kahve teslimatlarında gecikmeler yaşandığını anlattı.
Brent petrol de ise yıl genelinde salgın nedeniyle ekonomik aktivitedeki düşüş, petrol talebini azaltmasına karşın devam eden üretim, depolama sorununu berab erinde getirdi. Depolama kapasitesinin azalmasıyla maliyetin artması sonucu fiziki teslimat istemeyen yatırımcılar ve vade sonu kapanış işlemleri, panik havasına neden oldu.
Analistler, sonbaharda dünya genelinde Kovid-19 vaka sayısında tekrar artış görülmesi nedeniyle özellikle Avrupa'da karantina önlemlerinin alınmaya başlanmasının uluslararası petrol piyasasında "küresel petrol talebinin zayıf kalmaya devam edeceği" endişesini artırarak fiyatlar üzerinde aşağı yönlü baskı oluşturduğunu vurguladı.
Donald Trump'tan sonra Biden'ın, Çin ve Avrupa ile etkili, yakın ilişkiler kurmasının beklendiğini, özellikle Çin ile yaşanan ticaret savaşlarının hem ekonomileri hem de emtia fiyatlarını olumsuz etkilediğini ifade eden analistler, Biden sonrası ilişkilerin yumuşamasıyla özellikle Çin'in alıcı olduğu emtia fiyatlarında yukarı yönlü bir trend izlenebileceğini kaydetti.
ARALIK AYININ EN FAZLA KAZANDIRANI DA GÜMÜŞ OLDU Emtia piyasasında yatırımcısına geçen ay en fazla kazandıran da gümüş oldu. Aralıkta yüzde 16,7 artış kaydeden gümüşü, yüzde 13,6 ile mısır, yüzde 12,2 ile soya fasulyesi ve yüzde 11,3 ile platin takip etti.
Geçen ay buğday yüzde 9,5, pamuk yüzde 8,1, Brent petrol yüzde 8, altın yüzde 7, şeker yüzde 5,3, kahve yüzde 4, paladyum yüzde 3,2, nikel yüzde 1,9 ve bakır yüzde 1 değer kazandı.
Aralıkta doğal gaz yatırımcısına yüzde 12,4 kaybettirdi. Doğal gazı, yüzde 5,5 ile kurşun, yüzde 5 ile kakao, yüzde 1,7 ile çin ko ve yüzde 0,9 ile alüminyum izledi.
"GÜMÜŞ PİYASASINDA TALEP ARZI GEÇTİ" Vadeli işlem ve emtia piyasaları uzmanı Zafer Ergezen, konuya ilişkin AA muhab irine yaptığı açıklamada, gümüşün, birçok alanda kullanılabilen bir ürün olduğunu hatırlatarak, Meksika, Peru, Çin , ve Rusya'nın en büyük gümüş üreticileri, tüketimin en yoğun olduğu ülkelerin de ABD , Çin, Japonya ve Hindistan olduğunu bildirdi.
Gümüşün önemli ölçüde değer kazandığını, bundaki en önemli etkenin yüksek likidite, düşük faiz ve riskten kaçınma olduğunu vurgulayan Ergezen, pandemi krizi başladıktan sonra gümüşte yukarı yönlü ivmenin hızlandığını söyledi.
Gümüş piyasasında yılladır süren arz fazlası olduğunu belirten Ergezen, "Normalde fiyatların yukarı gitmesi beklenmezdi. Fakat bu yıl içerisinde fiziksel olmayan talepte ciddi bir artış yaşandı. Yani riskten korunma ve yatırım amaçlı talepte artış oldu. Vadeli piyasalarda fiyatlar hızla yükseldi. Kısacası, gümüş piyasasında talep arzı geçmiş oldu." şeklinde konuştu.
Ergezen, gümüşün yükselişine devam etmesinin beklendiğini ifade ederek, "Çünkü gümüş, geniş bir endüstriyel kullanıma sahip." dedi.
Aşı hab erleri ile birlikte ekonomilerin yeniden büyümeye başlayacağı beklentisi olduğunu aktaran Ergezen, şu değerlendirmelerde bulundu:
"Bunun sonucunda ise gümüşe talebin artması bekleniyor. Çin ve ABD gibi büyük ekonomilerde yaşanan toparlanma, gümüş için de beklentileri arttırmakta. Özellikle Çin ekonomisinin toparlanmaya başlamış olması önemli. Aşı haberleri, gümüş için olumsuz değerlendirilemez.
Günümüzde yüksek likidite, düşük faiz, düşük dolar endeksinin olduğu bir konjonktür var. Böylece varlık fiyatlarında yukarı yönlü eğilim gözleniyor. Son dönemde borsalardaki yukarı yönlü hareketlerin de nedeni bu aslında. Şimdi bu değişkenlere baktığımızda, 2021 yılı için de bir değişim beklenmiyor. Yani bu konjonktürün aynı şekilde devam edeceği beklentisi var. Bu sayede gümüş fiyatları için de yukarı yönlü seyrin devam edeceği beklentisi olduğunu söyleyebiliriz."
Kıymetli maden fiyatlarındaki en önemli etkilerden bir tanesinin de kurlardaki değişim olduğunu vurgulayan Ergezen, kıymetli madenlerin üretim yerlerine bakıldığında, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha fazla olduğunun görüldüğünü söyledi.