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Altın fiyatları 2021 yılına hareketli başladı. Pandemi döneminin en çok konuşulan yatırım aracı güvenli liman etiketine sahip altın, artan riskler ve dünyada uygulanan düşük faiz politikasının etkisiyle 2020 yılında tarihi zirvelerini test ederken, yeni yılda zayıf seyir sergiliyor.
ALTIN YENİ KISITLAMALAR VE MUTASYON HABERİYLE YÜKSELDİ Ons altın fiyatları 8 Ağustos tarihinde 2075 dolar ile tarihi zirvesini gördü. Bu noktadan sonra gevşeme hareketleri sergileyen ons altın, koronavirüs aşısı gelişmeleriyle Kasım ayının son işlem gününde 1764 dolara kadar geriledi. Daha sonra koronavirüs mutasyon haberleri ve yeni kısıtlamalar ile yeniden yönünü yukarı çeviren ons altın 1900 dolar bandında kapattı.
AŞILARIN MUTASYONDA DA ETKİLİ OLDUĞU HABERİ YÖNÜ YENİDEN AŞAĞI ÇEVİRDİ Yükselişini teşvik paketi beklentileri ile yeni yılda da sürdüren ons altın, 1950 dolar bandını aştı. Ancak altın fiyatları ABD 'deki Senato'daki güç dengesini belirleyecek Georgia seçimlerinin sonucu ile düşüşe geçti.
Hem Başkanlık hem de Senato gücünün Demokratların eline geçtiği durumu ifade eden 'Mavi Dalga'nın gerçekleşmesi, daha önce teşvik beklentileriyle yukarı yönlü hareketler sergileyen altın için artık teşvik hikâyesinin yavaş yavaş son bulacağı durumu oluştu. Bu duruma koronavirüs aşılarının mutasyonda da etkili olacağı eklenince altında yükselişler sınırlı kaldı ve ons yeniden 1800 dolar bandına doğru hareketlendi.
ONS DOLAR ENDEKSİNDEKİ VE HAZİNE TAHVİLLERİNDEKİ YÜKSELİŞ İLE DÜŞTÜ Ons altın fiyatları yeni haftada ABD Hazine tahvil lerindeki yükseliş ve dolar endeksindeki dipten dönüşün etkisiyle sert düşerek, 1817 doları gördü.
GRAM ALTIN 5.5 AYIN EN DÜŞÜK SEVİYESİNİ GÖRDÜ Gram altın fiyatları hem ons hem de dolar/TL'deki hareketlere bağlı olarak yön buluyor. Gram altın dolar/TL'deki yukarı yönlü hareketlerin etkisiyle 6 Kasım tarihinde 540 TL'yi gördü. Ekonomide yeni dönem adımları ile yönünü aşağı çeviren dolar/TL'deki sert düşüşün etkisiyle gram altın fiyatları hızlı bir düşüş gösterdi.
Merkez Bankası'nın (TCMB) parasal sıkılaştırmaya giderek, ortodoks politikalara keskin geçiş yapmasıyla dolar/TL'deki zayıf seyir güçlendi. Bu durumla beraber gram altında zaman zaman görülen yükseliş hareketleri sınırlı kaldı ve gram altın fiyatları yeni haftanın ilk işlem günü 5.5 ayın en düşük seviyesi olan 430 liraya kadar çekildi. Bu seviye en son 28 Temmuz tarihinde görülmüştü.
'GEREKİRSE DAHA FAZLA SIKILAŞTIRMAYA GİDERİZ' AÇIKLAMASI DOLARI BASKILIYOR Ekonomide yeni dönemle beraber Merkez Bankası'nın attığı adımların yanı sıra 'Gerekirse daha fazla sıkılaştırmaya gideriz' açıklamaları dolar/TL'yi baskılayan en büyük unsur olarak dikkat çekti. Merkez Bankası'nın verdiği mesajlar faizin enflasyon üzerinde tutularak yatırımcılara pozitif getiri sağlanacağını gösteriyor. Bu durum dolar kurunda ani yükselişleri frenleyen ve istikrarlı bir görüntü çizmesini sağlayabilecek yegane etmen olarak dikkat çekti. Bu durum Mavi Dalga senaryosu ile küresel düzeyde zayıf kalacak dolarla birleşince TL varlıklarının cazibesini artıracak unsur olarak göze çarpıyor.
6 Kasım 2020 tarihinde 8.58 lirayı gören dolar/TL, yeni para politikasının etkisiyle zayıf seyrini sürdürerek 7 Ocak 2021'de 7.23'ü gördü.
YABANCI BANKALAR DOLAR/TL TAHMİNLERİNİ DÜŞÜRDÜ Yabancı bankalar yayınladıkları raporlarda dolar/TL'deki zayıf seyrin sürebileceğine dikkat çekti. HSBC, yıl sonu dolar/TL tahmini 7.10 olarak açıklarken, tam bir normalleşmenin kuru 6.50 seviyesine kadar çekebileceği tahmin etti. İsviçreli banka UBS ise 2021'in ilk çeyreğinin sonunda dolar/TL'nin 7 liralara kadar gevşeyebileceğini savunurken, Credit Suisse ise kurda kısa vadeli hedefi 7 lira olarak revize etti.
Dolar/TL'nin zayıf kalacağı beklentisi gram altın fiyatları için yükselişleri sınırlayan ve satışları güçlendiren en büyük etmen olarak görülüyor.
A Para'da yayına katılan uzman isimler altın fiyatları değerlendirmesinde bulundu.
"200 GÜNLÜK HAREKETLİ ORTALAMA KIRILIRSA ALARM DURUMUNDA OLMAK LAZIM" Stratejist Cüneyt Paksoy A Para'da yayına katılarak altın fiyatları nın teknik analizini çıkardı. Paksoy, ons altın fiyatları için 1817 dolar seviyesindeki 200 günlük hareketli ortalamaya dikkat çekerek ve altının ciddi bir yerde sıkışma yaptığını ifade ederek, "Ons altında 200 günlük hareketli ortalama kırılırsa alarm durumunda olmak lazım" dedi.
GRAM ALTINDA NASIL STRATEJİ İZLENMELİ? Ons altındaki hareketlerin gram da da etkili olduğunun altını çizen Paksoy, gram altın fiyatları için stratejisini açıkladı. Paksoy, gram altında 450 liranın altında 400-420 liraya yaklaştıkça alım, 450 üzerinde 470 liraların üzerinde gittikçe satım olarak kısa vadeli stratejisini açıkladı. Uzman isim orta ve uzun vadede ise hikâye değişmedikçe 400 lira ve altının hep alım olduğunu ifade etti.