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İşte Sabah Gazetesi yazarı Dilek Güngör'ün o yazısı: Son günlerde belirli bir kesim
Merkez Bankası rezervleri üzerinden vatandaşı etkileyerek algı mühendisliği yapmaya çalışıyor. Sosyal medyada ne zaman dolansam, karşıma abuk sabuk yorumlar çıkıyor.
Öyle rakamlar havada uçuşuyor ki…
Yahu, akıl var, izan var.
Rakamlar kamuya açık. İsteyen ilgili kurumların sitelerinden bakabilir. Ki, bu hesabı geçen gün yazarımız Prof. Dr.
Kerem Alkin tane tane ortaya döktü.
Ben hocanın yazısında çok da detaya girmediği bir konuya dikkat çekeceğim. Malum, ekonomilerde ödemeler dengesi atar damardır adeta… Bir ülke, ihraç ettiğinden daha fazla ithalat yaparsa cari açık verir ve bu açığı finanse etmek için de yurtdışından fon bulmak zorundadır. Bu nedenle, Türkiye 'ye sermaye girişi önemlidir. Sermaye bulamazsan rezervi kullanmak durumunda kalırsın. Tabii, sermaye dediğimin ideali de şu;
Açığın finansmanında ilk sırada doğrudan yatırımların çekilmesi gereklidir. Zira, portföy yatırımı dediğimiz kısa vadede gelen paralar tehlikelidir. Çünkü, geldiği gibi ülkeden bir anda çıkma ihtimalleri vardır. Hatırlayın, Türkiye , bu dönemleri geçmişte çok yaşadı. Yüksek faiz politikalarıyla ülkeye para yağdığı günler oldu. O dönemlerdeki ekipler nasıl da efsaneleşmişlerdi. Halbuki, sahte bir refahtı yaşanılan… Tamam, belki büyüme oldu, fiyat istikrarı sağlandı ama beraberinde finansal istikrarsızlıklar baş gösterdi. Daha da kötüsü, bolluk döneminde ülkeyi sıcak paradan kurtaracak, ithalat bağımlılığını azaltacak, üretimi canlandıracak hiçbir yapısal reform önümüze getirilmedi.
Neyse ben asıl meseleye döneyim. 2020'de belki de dünyanın başına 100 yılda bir gelecek felaketle karş�� karşıya kalıp, ticaret, turizm, yatırım her şey durunca bütün ülkeler neye uğradığını şaşırdı. Hesaplar şaştı.
Düşünsenize, 2019'da 18 yıl aradan sonra cari fazlaya geçmiştik. 2020'de 36.7 milyar dolar açık verdik. Bunu finanse edecek doğrudan yatırım olmadı, hatta sıcak para da… Hisse senedi ve tahvil kaleminde ise 5.5 milyar dolarlık net çıkış yaşandı. Eee, finansman büyük oranda rezervlerden karşılandı. Resmi rezervler 2020'de 31.9 milyar dolar azaldı.
Mesela, sadece turizm tarafını ele alalım. Niye turizme ayrı bir parantez açıyorum? Çünkü, bizde turizm gelirleri hem büyümeye hem de cari açığın finansmanında önemli rol oynuyor. Turizm gelirleri geçen yıl yerlerde sürünüyordu. 2019'da neredeyse cari açık kadar turizm geliri (30 milyar doların üzerinde) elde ederken, 2020'de bu rakam 10.9 milyar dolara düştü. Turizmdeki çöküş birçok sektörü de etkiledi. Peru, Brezilya, Meksika, Güney Afrika gibi ülkeler açısından turizm geliri bu kadar hayati önemde olmayabilir. Ya da Fransa, İngiltere, Almanya, Japonya, ABD gibi ülkelerde… Bizde ise turizm gelirlerindeki 1 birimlik artış bile cari işlemler açığını azaltıyor. Araştırmalara göre, turizm gelirleri 1 milyar dolar attığında cari işlemler açığı 3.08 milyar dolar azalıyor. Gelir azaldığında ise açık artıyor. Açığı kapatmak için mecburen rezervden kullanıyorsun. Velhasıl, sadece turizmden kaynaklı rezerv kaybının büyüklüğünü bir düşünsenize... Rakamlar rezervin kimsenin cebine girmediği gerçeğini anlatıyor, tabii anlamak isteyene…
DÖVİZDEKİ DÜŞÜŞÜ FIRSATA MI ÇEVİRDİLER? Döviz kurları bir süredir düşüyor. Hatta 7 TL'lik psikolojik sınırın altına kadar gerilemiş durumda… Uluslararası finans kuruluşları ve yorumcular ısrarla TL'nin daha da değer kazanacağını söylüyor. YAZININ TAMAMI İÇİN TIKLAYIN